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The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 4.0 earthquake occurred at 20:19 on September 19 in Shenzha County, Nagqu City, Tibet (31.99 degrees north latitude, 89.26 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.The China Earthquake Networks Center automatically determined that an earthquake of approximately magnitude 4.2 occurred at 20:19 on September 19 near Shenzha County, Nagqu City, Tibet (32.03 degrees north latitude, 89.29 degrees east longitude). The final result is subject to the official rapid report.On September 19th, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Stournaras stated that the ECB must be wary of upward inflation risks but should not act hastily. He noted that while a second-round effect through channels such as wages has not yet materialized, this situation cannot be taken for granted. "We are seeing a series of ongoing supply-side shocks that cannot be simply ignored. At the same time, there are strong demand factors due to fiscal expansion and the AI investment boom. We must remain vigilant." With more than a month until the next policy decision, Stournaras said he has not yet made a decision, and the various economic outlook forecasts prepared by the ECB may provide some guidance. "If inflation surges in September, or if rising energy costs clearly put us in an adverse scenario, then a rate hike in October cannot be ruled out. But if there are some doubts, we will not take any action but will wait for the next round of forecasts." Stournaras emphasized that this weeks Fed rate hike also helped the ECB, stating, "The Feds rate decision enhanced its credibility and also enhanced the credibility of global monetary policy, because the Fed and the dollar play a central role."September 19th - The French government stated that its draft budget for 2027 will meet EU recommendations, despite the countrys debt burden being projected to exceed 120% of economic output. The French Budget Ministry stated in a statement on Saturday that the budget plan projects net primary spending to increase by 0.7%, while the European Commission recommends an increase of no more than 1.2%. France is struggling to control its public finances amid weak economic growth and rising interest costs. On Thursday, the government announced that this years fiscal trajectory has deviated from its target, with the budget deficit projected to rise to 5.4% of GDP, while the previous fiscal law aimed to slightly narrow the deficit to 5%. The French Budget Ministry stated that the draft budget submitted to the public finance oversight body aims to reduce spending as a percentage of economic output to 56.9% by 2027, from 57.1% in 2026. On the same basis, tax revenue will account for 44.2%. Under this plan, Frances debt ratio is projected to rise from 119.3% this year and 115.7% in 2025 to 121.7% of economic output in 2027.On September 19, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce answered a reporters question regarding the US signing the "Graham Act of 2026 on Sanctions Against Russia and Iran" into law. China has consistently opposed unilateral sanctions lacking UN authorization and a basis in international law, and opposes so-called secondary sanctions against other countries based on the involvement of third parties. China has always conducted normal economic and trade cooperation with all countries in the world on the basis of equality and mutual benefit. Such cooperation is neither targeted at any third party nor subject to interference or coercion from any third party. We will continue to closely monitor subsequent US actions and reserve the right to take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard Chinas national sovereignty and development interests, as well as the legitimate rights and interests of its enterprises. We hope the US will work with China to maintain stable economic and trade relations through dialogue and consultation, and make greater contributions to maintaining world trade order and the security and stability of global supply chains.

Fears of a recession continue to weigh on oil prices, although a tightened supply mitigates losses

Aria Thomas

Jul 04, 2022 11:37


Oil prices dipped in early Asian trade on Monday, erasing the previous session's gains, as fears of a global recession weighed on the market despite the fact that supply remains tight due to lower OPEC output, unrest in Libya, and sanctions against Russia.


Brent crude futures declined 35 cents, or 0.3%, to $111.28 a barrel at 00:16 GMT on Saturday, following a Friday increase of 2.4%.


Futures for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 32 cents, or 0.3%, to $108.11 a barrel on Monday, after gaining 2.5% on Friday.


Fears of a recession have weighed on the market during the past two weeks, although supply concerns have prevented further price drops.


Tobin Gorey, a commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank, observed, "Energy markets continue to be plagued by distinct supply risks, making shorting a nerve-racking exercise."


In June, the production of the 10 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) declined by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 28.52 million barrels per day (bpd), a far cry from the 275,000 bpd increase they had expected.


Increases in Saudi Arabia and other major producers were offset by losses in Nigeria and Libya, and Libya faces additional supply disruptions as a result of rising political unrest.


Analysts at ANZ Research noted in a note, "This makes it even less likely that (OPEC) will be able to meet its newly increased output limits."


Last week, the National Oil Corp estimated that Libya's exports have reduced to between 365,000 and 409,000 bpd, a decrease of around 865,000 bpd compared to normal levels.


This week, a planned strike by Norwegian oil and gas workers may lower the nation's oil and condensate production by 130,000 barrels per day (bpd).


Traders will closely follow official oil prices for August from the world's largest oil supplier, Saudi Arabia, for signals of market tightness, with refiners anticipating another high increase close to the record established in May.


According to nine refinery sources evaluated by Reuters, the official selling price of Saudi Arabia's flagship Arab Light oil may rise by around $2.40 per barrel compared to the previous month.


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