E-mini S&P 500 Index: Tough to Sustain Rally without More Solid Support Base

Investors are anxious that the Federal Reserve's rate rise would not be enough to contain inflation, and that the US central bank will have to take more harsh measures. After reversing all of yesterday's gains, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading down late in the afternoon on Thursday.

At 18:29 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures were trading at 4125.50, down 169.75 or 3.95 percent. The S&P 500 Trust ETF has dropped 16.77 percent to $412.29.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by half a percentage point, as expected, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressly ruled out a 75-basis-point increase at a future meeting.

Only 22 S&P 500 index members were in the green at 18:00 GMT. In addition, all 11 of the major S&P sectors are down, with consumer discretionary leading the pack.

The Daily Swing Chart's Technical Analysis

The primary trend is down, according to the daily swing chart. A move through 4056.00 will herald the resumption of the downtrend. If the price breaks through 4509.00, the primary trend will shift to the upside.

The little declining tendency is still present. Taking out 4303.50 will move the minor trend higher and transfer momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 4303.50 to 4056.00. The 50 percent mark is at 4179.75, which is the nearest resistance. The second closest resistance is a 50% level at 4343.50.

Prospects in the Short Term

The reaction of traders to 4179.75 will likely determine the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into Thursday's close.

Negative Predictions

A prolonged rise below 4179.75 will signal the presence of sellers. If enough negative momentum develops, expect the selling to extend towards the major bottom around 4056.00.

If 4056.00 is taken out, a quick test of the main bottom at 4020.50 is expected on May 12, 2021. This might be the turning point in a downward trend.

Optimistic Outlook

A sustained move over 4179.75 will show the presence of buyers. If there is enough upward momentum, look for a late-session burst over the resistance cluster around 4282.50 – 4303.50.