EUR/USD
1.13905
-0.217%
Gold
4080.60
-0.675%
Oil
74.292
3.946%
USD/JPY
162.019
0.179%
GBP/USD
1.33734
-0.182%
GBP/JPY
216.679
-0.003%
Real-time News
On Monday, July 13, the Hang Seng Index opened down 17.47 points, or 0.07%, at 24,157.65; the Hang Seng Tech Index opened down 1.98 points, or 0.04%, at 4,719.68; the H-share Index opened up 3.07 points, or 0.04%, at 8,042.26; and the Red Chip Index opened up 14.61 points, or 0.38%, at 3,865.65.On July 13th, Barclays stated that although oil prices have fallen significantly from their peak during the Iran conflict, its inflation forecasts have deteriorated. In a report to clients, the bank stated that the Federal Reserves policy path of keeping interest rates unchanged this year, rather than raising them, has narrowed considerably in recent months. However, the bank added that this remains its base case scenario. The oil price shocks have come and gone, but inflation has not, due to the current overall strength of the US economy; therefore, the decline in oil prices cannot relieve the Federal Reserve of its inflation concerns.On July 13th, Chen Weicong, Investment Strategist at Bank of East Asia Wealth Management, pointed out that factors such as increased AI investment by technology companies and rising energy and memory production costs have led to a weaker-than-expected recovery in the earnings of heavyweight tech and consumer stocks. Therefore, he lowered his earnings forecast for the Hang Seng Index this year and reduced his target for the Hang Seng Index from 29,000 points to 27,100 points. He reiterated that the current forward P/E ratio for Hong Kong stocks is only 10 times, slightly lower than the average of about 10.5 times over the past 10 years, indicating gradually emerging valuation attractiveness. He believes the recent market downturn presents a buying opportunity and expects a phased rebound in the market in the second half of the year, but this rebound is unlikely to last long. If the July Politburo meeting releases more pro-growth policies, it could become a potential catalyst for the rebound.Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: The escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend put pressure on London spot gold in early trading on Monday. Looking back at last week, gold prices both domestically and internationally experienced increased volatility, continuing their weekly decline. Spot gold fell 1.51% for the week, while the Shanghai Gold Futures contract fell 1.48%. Geopolitically, a new round of conflict erupted between the US and Iran. With both sides intensifying their attacks, the risk of unrestricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has increased again. Rising oil prices and inflation expectations have contributed to short-term weakness in gold prices. 1. Macroeconomic Overview: Disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy communication methods are surfacing. Governor Waller stated that forward guidance remains a valuable policy tool, contrasting with Warshs stance. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on July 15th. This hearing will focus on the Feds semi-annual monetary policy report submitted to Congress, potentially providing some guidance on interest rates and the direction of monetary policy. 2. The precious metals market will face a double test with Warshs congressional debut and CPI data releases. On July 14th, the US June CPI will be released on the same day as Warshs House hearing, followed by the PPI data release on the 15th, after which Warsh will testify before the Senate. The resonance between inflation data and policy signals will influence precious metal price movements. With the US and Iran entering a second round of conflict, the market initially returned to trading based on rising inflation and interest rate expectations. However, judging from the weekly performance of oil and gold prices, the sustainability of this conflict is not optimistic. Furthermore, there were no further positive factors to drive a significant rebound in gold prices; the overall trend remains weak and corrective. This indicates that the current bottoming-out range for gold is not stable. With geopolitical factors and Fed policies repeatedly intertwined, there is significant divergence between bulls and bears, requiring continued caution.US President Trump: 59% approval rating. Inflation is declining, and oil and gas prices are also falling.
