Ahead of the Fed: S&P 500 Index

When the FOMC meets later today, it is largely anticipated to raise interest rates by 50 basis points. It's also likely to declare that it'll start relaxing its $9 trillion balance sheet, decreasing it by $95 billion each month, with $60 billion in Treasures and $35 billion in MBS. Matt Weller's comprehensive FOMC preview may be seen here.

If the conference's conclusion is "as predicted," the S&P 500 may not react much, since there will be no forecast adjustments on growth and inflation until the June meeting. Given how low the big cap index has fallen for the month of April, we may see a "buy the fact" scenario. The press conference, on the other hand, may hold the key to the S&P 500's next move. 

For the next three FOMC sessions, rises of 50 basis points are expected. The S&P 500 might rise if Powell becomes more dovish and implies that this is too aggressive. This would imply lower rates for longer. However, if he hints at a 75 basis point hike at one of the Fed's next meetings, as St Louis Fed President Bullard has hinted, markets may continue to fall.

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Since the fall of 2020, the S&P 500 index has been climbing in an ascending wedge, reaching an all-time high of 4820.2 on January 4th. On January 18th, the big cap index broke below the wedge and traded to a near-term low of 4104.1 on February 24th. The price then jumped from 4135.9 to 4636 in the second part of March. 

However, the market dropped out in April, wiping out all of those profits. The S&P 500 hit a new bottom of 4062 on May 2nd, then rebounded to form a hammer on the daily period. This suggests a rebound is on the way. Price also maintained slightly above the 50% retracement line, which crosses at 4027, from the lows of October 30th, 2020 to the highs of January 4th. In addition, the RSI is diverging from price, indicating that a rebound in the S&P 500 is possible.