EUR/USD 1.09366
0.780%
Gold 3127.41
-0.152%
Oil 69.423
-1.414%
USD/JPY 147.320
-1.314%
GBP/USD 1.30849
0.603%
GBP/JPY 192.768
-0.667%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
Switzerlands March CPI monthly rate will be released in ten minutes.Comprehensive tariffs and reciprocal tariffs 1. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys: On a static basis, new tariff revenues account for nearly 2% of GDP (not considering the impact of tariffs on the economy and taxes), which makes this round of tax increases the largest since the tax increases used to finance the war during World War II. 2. JPMorgan Chase report: If these tariffs are fully implemented, the actual tariff rate in the United States may rise to 25%. This will affect about $3.3 trillion worth of imported goods. This years cumulative tariff increase should be regarded as a tax increase of about $660 billion, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, making it one of the largest tax increases in modern history. 3. Capital Economics: Trumps tariffs could generate up to $700 billion (or 2.3% of GDP) in revenue each year, the average import-weighted tariff rate will jump to 19.1%, and the effective tariff rate will rise from 2.3% to around 26%, reaching the highest level in 131 years. 4. CICC: If these tariffs are fully implemented, the effective tariff rate of the United States may rise sharply by 22.7 percentage points from 2.4% in 2024 to 25.1%, which will exceed the tariff level after the implementation of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930. Tariffs may push up US PCE inflation by 1.9 percentage points and reduce real GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points, although it may also bring in more than $700 billion in fiscal revenue. 5. White House assistant Peter Navarro: Trumps tariffs may increase fiscal revenue by three times the scale of the World War II tax increase in 1942, which may become the largest tax increase in US history. 6. Trump himself said that some of the tariffs imposed this week could help the government raise more than $1 trillion in funds over the next year or so, help reduce the national debt, and may even offset some income taxes. Auto tariffs 1. White House Secretary Will Schaaf estimated that Trumps 25% tariff on cars and auto parts imported into the United States could increase "about $100 billion in new revenue." 2. Trump himself said that in a relatively short period of time, that is, one year from now, between $600 billion and $1 trillion would be raised. 3. The Yale Budget Lab, a think tank, estimates that auto tariffs could raise revenues of about $600 billion to $650 billion over 10 years, rather than in one year as Trump said, averaging $60 billion to $65 billion on an annual basis.UK Business Secretary: We have safeguards in place to ensure we are not overwhelmed by unwanted goods.British Business Secretary: We are very happy to engage in dialogue with any country to remove trade barriers.Traders increased bets on ECB easing, with expectations for 68 basis points of rate cuts this year.

EUR/USD recovers from low US inflation, EU energy plans, and trade talks

Daniel Rogers

Sep 14, 2022 11:44

截屏2022-09-14 上午9.45.02.png 

 

EUR/USD bids jumped to 0.9980 during Wednesday's Asian session due to US inflation-driven losses near the weekly low. In doing so, the main currency pair consolidates the greatest daily loss in the past two years prior to diplomatic efforts by the European Union (EU).

 

The US inflation data released on Tuesday revived concerns about the Federal Reserve's rapid rate hike and compounded recession fears. China and Russia-related geopolitical concerns are also acting as bearish factors for the EUR/USD. Despite this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.3% year-over-year in August, above market estimates by 0.1%. In contrast, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, surpassing the -0.1% projected and the 0.0% seen in previous reports. The core CPI, or CPI excluding food and energy, also surpassed the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the relevant month.

 

In contrast, Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to -60.7 in September, compared to the expected -52 and the prior reading of -54.9. The sentiment indicator for Germany declined to -61.9, compared to market expectations of -60 and previous readings of 55.3. Following the announcement of the statistics on Tuesday, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned, "We face the potential of a recession next year." Similarly, the German economic outlook for the second half of the year has deteriorated dramatically, and second-half output may stagnate or decline.

 

Notable is the increase in hawkish Fed bets, with next week's 75 basis point (bps) rate hike looking increasingly plausible. At its meeting on September 21, there is a 25% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce a full 1% increase in the benchmark Fed rate.

 

After US inflation data, the inversion between short-term and long-term US Treasury bond yields deteriorated and exacerbated recession fears, which impacted on the EUR/USD due to the pair's reputation as a risk-barometer. However, following the announcement of the data, the yields on 10-year US Treasury notes increased to 3.412% and those on 2-year bonds increased to 3.76%, up from approximately 3.411% and 3.745%, respectively. In addition, following the release of the US CPI, US stocks saw their worst daily loss in over two years, which affected the pair.

 

Additionally, Sino-American tensions are exacerbated by US Vice President Joe Biden's efforts to highlight China's problems and the drive for better relations with China. In addition, market sentiment and the EUR/USD exchange rate were impacted by concerns that Russia could retaliate brutally after withdrawing from certain regions of Ukraine.

 

Recently, US President Joe Biden declared, "I am unconcerned by today's inflation figure," adding that the stock market is not always a reliable predictor of the strength of the economy. The cause may be tied to the greatest drop in US stocks in two years following the publication of US inflation data.

 

Ursula von der Leyen's plans for energy price capping and US Trade Representative Katherine Tai's visit to the European Union (EU) to see European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis will be vital to track for future developments. Prior to Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reading, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) will also be crucial.


Suggestion