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Despite a stable DXY and a hawkish RBNZ stance, NZD/USD bulls tinker around 0.5700

Daniel Rogers

Oct 19, 2022 15:48

截屏2022-10-19 上午11.20.52.png 

 

On Wednesday morning, NZD/USD bulls struggle to keep control during the three-day uptrend, making minor gains above 0.5700. The market's sluggish performance in light of the dormant US Dollar Index (DXY) and the risk-on stance is reflected in this. However, buyers remain upbeat due to the hawkish view for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) upcoming action.

 

Following the announcement of New Zealand's (NZ) Q3 Consumer Price Index, several banks increased their favorable forecasts for the RBNZ's upcoming action (CPI).

 

However, against the market's expectation of 1.6% and the prior data of 1.6%, New Zealand's Q3 CPI jumped to 2.2%. The data also showed that the YoY CPI increased to 7.2% from 7.2% earlier and 6.6% as was predicted. The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said, based on the information: "The RBNZ will need to take action as core inflation continues to remain entrenched and shows no signs of turning the corner. We expect the OCR to rise by 75 basis points to 5% in November and February."

 

The risk-on attitude is also helping the NZD/ascent elsewhere. In keeping with Wall Street's second straight day of gains, USD's S&P 500 Futures rise 0.80% intraday, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds steady near 112.00 and US 10-year Treasury yields fluctuate around the 4.00% level.

 

News reports about the battle of Russian forces in Ukraine and UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's ability to fend off the impacts of the recession appear to be the main drivers of the recent market optimism.

 

It should be noted that despite risk-on attitude and sluggish Treasury rates, the DXY does not increase in response to improved industrial production and aggressive Fed statements. Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, recently said: "Until I see persuasive evidence that core inflation has at least peaked, I am not willing to pause rate hikes."

 

Future Fed speakers will join housing-related secondary US data to thrill NZD/USD speculators. However, barring any risk-averse surprises or unexpected RBNZ pronouncements, the Kiwi-Dollar pair is likely to continue strengthening.

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