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① Iran 1. Iranian lawmakers say the US attack on Iran again is actually a form of pressure. 2. Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that Iran is now stronger and better prepared than ever before, and is "ready to act" at any time against any act of aggression. ② United States 1. US media: Officials from multiple countries called to persuade Trump to postpone military action. 2. US officials stated that the US military shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones. 3. Trump: The terms leaked by Iran to "fake news" have nothing to do with the terms of the written agreement. 4. According to CNN, citing defense officials, the US shot down two Iranian attack drones last night. 5. US officials: The Strait of Hormuz will be open under the agreement. Iran will not receive any funds until it fulfills its obligations. 6. According to Reuters: An informed source revealed that the US military shot down several Iranian one-way attack drones flying towards the Strait of Hormuz. The source said that Iranian drones pose a threat to commercial shipping. 7. US Vice President Vance: There is a lot of misinformation surrounding the potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end Irans nuclear weapons program. Iranians have not received any cash, nor will their funds be unfrozen simply because they signed an agreement or attended a meeting. ③ Israel 1. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: As long as I am Prime Minister of Israel—Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. President Trump and I are completely aligned on this issue. 2. Israeli Defense Minister: He and Prime Minister Netanyahu have instructed the Israeli military to prepare to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Israel will not withdraw from the safe zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. ④ Strait of Hormuz 1. Iranian Foreign Minister: Services related to the Strait of Hormuz will be charged. The management model of the Strait of Hormuz will not be restored to the pre-war state. 2. The US military claims to have diverted 136 ships during the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; it has rendered 9 ships incapable of navigation to ensure compliance with the blockade. 3. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA): Iran will not restore the state of the Strait of Hormuz to the pre-war level. According to the memorandum of understanding with the United States, Iran made no commitments regarding the transfer of control over the Strait of Hormuz. The future management of the strait will be resolved as a regional matter through dialogue and joint decision-making between Iran and Oman. 4. According to Iranian reports, 50 ships are awaiting passage permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy after the suspension of passage in the Strait of Hormuz due to US hostile actions. ⑤ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. Iranian media released new details of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding, stating that final confirmation from relevant departments is still required. 2. Reports indicate that the UAE has agreed to unfreeze billions of dollars in funds for Iran, which the UAE Foreign Ministry denied. 3. According to Al Arabiya: Iran is demanding an agreement with the US in a European country to give the agreement international legitimacy. 4. According to CNN, citing sources, Israel is pressuring to prevent the unfreezing of Iranian assets in the ceasefire agreement. 5. Iranian Foreign Minister: The Iran-US memorandum of understanding may be signed within days; the draft includes provisions for a ceasefire on the Lebanese front. The US pledged not to wage war in the memorandum. The only preferred solution for disposing of highly enriched uranium stockpiles is to de-enrich and dilute the relevant materials. 6. G7 official: The US-Iran memorandum of understanding could be signed as early as Sunday in Geneva; Iran subsequently denied the claim that an agreement would be signed in Geneva on Sunday. 7. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA): Iran seeks war reparations within a "realistic framework." The current memorandum does not reach any agreement on the nuclear issue. Nuclear negotiations will take place within 60 days of the agreements signing. 8. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA): A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that both sides have reached consensus on most issues in the negotiations, and we are currently in the final stages of the internal decision-making process. 9. US official: The US and Iran are close to reaching an agreement, which will be signed in the coming days. The terms of the memorandum of understanding include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US blockade of Iranian ports. Irans highly enriched uranium will also be destroyed on-site and subsequently shipped out of the country. Under the agreement, the US will acquire Irans enriched nuclear materials. ⑥ Other situations: 1. Egypt urges the US and Iran to seize the "current opportunity" to end the war. 2. Lebanese President: The state of hostilities will only end when conditions such as Israels withdrawal are met. 3. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has conveyed to US diplomats that it will ensure that US forces operating in the region take necessary measures to prevent civilian casualties.US President Trump: Before I returned to the Oval Office, Joe Biden opened our southern border to millions of criminals, allowing this foreign army to rape, mutilate, and murder American citizens with complete impunity.Anthropic: Our understanding is that the US government believes it has learned of a way to bypass or "jailbreak" Fable 5. We doubt that any current model provider can achieve a perfect jailbreak defense.Anthropic: We received instructions from the U.S. government at 5:21 p.m. today. The letter did not specify details of its national security concerns.Anthropic: The U.S. government has issued an export control order suspending access to the artificial intelligence models FABLE 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals.

Despite Japan's holiday, the USD/JPY has recovered to 143.00 while the Fed and BOJ remain vigilant

Daniel Rogers

Sep 19, 2022 14:48

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In spite of Monday's limited USD/JPY action due to Japan's vacation, the USD/JPY has recovered from intraday lows and is moving closer to recovering 143.00. The gold market is widely predicted to react strongly to the monetary policy meeting between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) this week (BOJ).

 

Wall Street's major indexes ended the day on a down note, but the S&P 500 Futures are showing slight gains.

 

US Vice President Joe Biden's recent upbeat comments could be to blame. The head of state has also assured the public that inflation will be reduced. Covid developments from China include the unlocking of the city of Dalian in the province of Liaoning, the continued absence of coronavirus cases in Beijing, and the discovery of one such case outside of the Shanghai quarantine zone, up from the absence of any the day before.

 

USD/JPY purchasers appear to be bullish ahead of the significant monetary policy declarations due to President Biden's commitment to help Taiwan in the event that China strikes Taiwan and hawkish expectations for the Fed. It should be noted, however, that speculation over the BOJ's intervention appears to have halted the recent bull market.

 

The University of Michigan's preliminary September consumer sentiment index of 59.5 was up from the preliminary reading of 58.5 in August but still below market estimates of 60.0. The market's expectations of a full one percentage point increase in the Fed rate rose to 18% in light of the improved US statistics, while the probability of a 75 basis point (bps) boost by the Fed increased to above 80%, or 82% at the time of publication.

 

This session of USD/JPY could be slow due to the Japanese holiday and the relatively empty economic calendar. The Fed versus BOJ clash will be key for pair traders to observe this week. The economic forecasts and pronouncements of the various central bank heads are crucial, in addition to the interest rate announcements, which are generally factored in. It's possible that the USD/JPY might drop if Fed Chair Powell disillusions US dollar bulls and the BOJ shows it's willing to defend the yen through intervention.


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