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Bullish on the US Dollar Index around 110.00 while following Michigan FDLE

Daniel Rogers

Sep 16, 2022 14:57

截屏2022-09-16 上午10.03.18.png 

 

Due to Fed hawks' continued dominance and encouraging US statistics, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 109.80 during Friday's Asian session. In addition to strengthening the dollar's position against the other six major currencies, economic worries in China and Europe also help the greenback.

 

The FedWatch Tool on the CME predicts that the FOMC will raise interest rates by between 0.75 and 1.00 percent at their meeting next week. DXY bulls have been feeling the squeeze from falling US 10-year Treasury rates of -1.2 bps to 3.447%, after a gain of 1.38 bps the day before.

 

Meanwhile, 0.0% growth was forecasted for US retail sales in August, and -0.4% was revised down for July. And the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to -1.5 in September from -31.3 in August and -13 as predicted by the market. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, on the other hand, dropped to -9.9 for the relevant month, well below both the forecasted level of 2.8 and the prior level of 6.2. Additionally, August US Industrial Production was revised down to -0.2% from a previous reading of -0.5% and market expectations of 0.1% growth.

 

Bloomberg also released a story expecting more tougher circumstances for China in 2020. On the same line, we read about the ongoing tensions between China and the United States and the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) inaction. A surge in pessimism can be attributed to a number of factors, including hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers and worries that the Eurozone would remain in a perilous situation despite a good winter stockpile.

 

As a result of these maneuvers, the stock market ended the day in the negative, US Treasury bond yields increased, and the S&P 500 Futures dropped by at least 0.65% throughout the trading session.

 

Intraday movement will be heavily influenced by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) preliminary readings, which are expected to be 60 compared to 58.2 previously. Yet, the focus will be on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week. Given the recent recessionary issues impacting the world's top industrial actor and second-largest economy, it is worth noting that the DXY may also be affected by the second-tier statistics from China.


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