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On January 12th, Jefferies Research reported that its preview of Bilibilis (09626.HK) Q4 2025 results is in line with the banks forecasts, with total revenue expected to remain unchanged at approximately 5% year-on-year, reaching RMB 8.1 billion. Jefferies maintains its "Buy" rating on Bilibilis (BILI.O) US-listed shares at US$34 and its Hong Kong-listed shares at HK$267. By business segment, the bank expects mobile game revenue to increase by 1% quarter-on-quarter but decrease by 15% year-on-year to RMB 1.52 billion (accounting for 20% of total revenue); online advertising revenue is expected to increase by 21% year-on-year to RMB 2.9 billion (accounting for 36% of total revenue), primarily driven by several growth factors, including daily active users, traffic, and revenue per thousand impressions (rMI). The report also noted the success of "Escape from Dwarkov" in the gaming sector, highlighting the companys strategy of focusing on leading positions in vertical categories, long-term product operation, and targeting the younger generation. According to the banks 2026 outlook report, artificial intelligence is predicted to be a key area, while the entertainment industry is favored due to its defensive nature.On January 12th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) reported the following data on energy and chemical warehouse receipts and changes: 1. Pulp futures warehouse receipts: 130,363 tons, an increase of 5,874 tons compared to the previous trading day; 2. Pulp futures mill warehouse receipts: 12,000 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 3. Offset paper futures warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 4. Offset paper futures mill warehouse receipts: 2,040 tons, an increase of 40 tons compared to the previous trading day; 5. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day. The previous trading day saw no change; 6. Petroleum asphalt futures warehouse receipts totaled 16,160 tons, an increase of 2,420 tons compared to the previous trading day; 7. Petroleum asphalt futures factory warehouse receipts totaled 16,660 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 8. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts totaled 3,464,000 barrels, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 9. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts totaled 22,760 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 10. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures factory warehouse receipts totaled 0 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day.January 12th - It was learned today that the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has officially released the international standard "Tribological properties of bearing materials for sliding bearings - Part 1: Testing of bearing alloys". This standard was led by my country, with experts from seven countries including Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Austria participating in its development.On January 12th, Jefferies released a research report stating that it expects Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) to achieve a net profit of RMB 2.3 billion in the second half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 155%, with sales reaching RMB 15.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 207%. Jefferies lowered its net profit forecasts for Lao Pu Gold for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 14%, 6%, and 12% respectively, to reflect lower gross margins due to high gold prices and a return to normal growth in 2027. The bank lowered its target price for Lao Pu Gold from HKD 1,103 to HKD 981, corresponding to projected P/E ratios of 22x and 17x for 2026 and 2027 respectively. Despite profit margin pressures, Jefferies expects Lao Pu Gold to recover this year and reiterated its buy rating. Jefferies predicts that Lao Pu Gold will achieve a net profit of RMB 2.3 billion in the second half of 2025, with projected sales of RMB 13 billion in the mainland China market, a year-on-year increase of 188%; average sales per store are expected to increase by 130% year-on-year. Regarding overseas markets, overseas sales are projected to reach RMB 2.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 295%. The gross profit margin is expected to be 36.4% during the period, compared to 38.1% in the first half of the year.US Ambassador to India: We will speak again next Tuesday about trade issues.

Bullish on the US Dollar Index around 110.00 while following Michigan FDLE

Daniel Rogers

Sep 16, 2022 14:57

截屏2022-09-16 上午10.03.18.png 

 

Due to Fed hawks' continued dominance and encouraging US statistics, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 109.80 during Friday's Asian session. In addition to strengthening the dollar's position against the other six major currencies, economic worries in China and Europe also help the greenback.

 

The FedWatch Tool on the CME predicts that the FOMC will raise interest rates by between 0.75 and 1.00 percent at their meeting next week. DXY bulls have been feeling the squeeze from falling US 10-year Treasury rates of -1.2 bps to 3.447%, after a gain of 1.38 bps the day before.

 

Meanwhile, 0.0% growth was forecasted for US retail sales in August, and -0.4% was revised down for July. And the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to -1.5 in September from -31.3 in August and -13 as predicted by the market. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, on the other hand, dropped to -9.9 for the relevant month, well below both the forecasted level of 2.8 and the prior level of 6.2. Additionally, August US Industrial Production was revised down to -0.2% from a previous reading of -0.5% and market expectations of 0.1% growth.

 

Bloomberg also released a story expecting more tougher circumstances for China in 2020. On the same line, we read about the ongoing tensions between China and the United States and the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) inaction. A surge in pessimism can be attributed to a number of factors, including hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers and worries that the Eurozone would remain in a perilous situation despite a good winter stockpile.

 

As a result of these maneuvers, the stock market ended the day in the negative, US Treasury bond yields increased, and the S&P 500 Futures dropped by at least 0.65% throughout the trading session.

 

Intraday movement will be heavily influenced by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) preliminary readings, which are expected to be 60 compared to 58.2 previously. Yet, the focus will be on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week. Given the recent recessionary issues impacting the world's top industrial actor and second-largest economy, it is worth noting that the DXY may also be affected by the second-tier statistics from China.