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According to Bailey of the BOE, the GBP/USD is under pressure at its two-year low of 1.1900

Alina Haynes

Jul 12, 2022 14:41

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Following a test of the two-year bottom at 1.1845 the day before, GBP/USD bears tinker with the 1.1900 level during Tuesday's Asian session. Recent losses for the Cable pair may be related to British political developments and concerns of a recession.

 

Following Boris Johnson's ouster, a number of well-known British officials are vying for the presidency, including former chancellor Rishi Sunak, foreign secretary Liz Truss, and current UK finance minister Nadhim Zahawi. Although Brexit is the main element supporting the candidate, tax cuts are being emphasized as the promise to win over supporters.

 

According to a survey of the retail sector, which was released on Tuesday by Reuters, British customers cut down on their purchases for the third month in a row, and sales volumes fell by the most since the COVID-19 outbreak.

 

The Bank of England's Andrew Bailey told Reuters that "the United Kingdom is facing a very substantial real income shock." Due to the nation's economic unease, the news also puts negative pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

On a larger scale, fears of an economic downturn were exacerbated by historically high US inflation forecasts and comments from US leaders foreseeing future suffering, which fueled the risk-averse mood and pulled down the GBP/USD currency rate. Despite this, a research by the New York Federal Reserve found that one-year inflation estimates in the US rose to a record high of 6.8 percent in June from 6.6 percent in May. Expectations of Fed aggression, which were earlier reinforced by the most recent US job statistics, are another factor adding to the market doom. While the unemployment rate held stable at 3.6 percent, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) expanded by 372K in June, above projections of 268K and a downward adjustment of 384K.

 

In this setting, equities continued to decline, while US Treasury rates showed no signs of abating. S&P 500 Futures also keep an eye on Wall Street losses as of publication.

 

For traders of the GBP/USD pair, Governor Bailey of the Bank of England's second round of testimony will be essential. However, risk factors including political events and inflationary concerns will be the major emphasis.


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