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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

According to Bailey of the BOE, the GBP/USD is under pressure at its two-year low of 1.1900

Alina Haynes

Jul 12, 2022 14:41

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Following a test of the two-year bottom at 1.1845 the day before, GBP/USD bears tinker with the 1.1900 level during Tuesday's Asian session. Recent losses for the Cable pair may be related to British political developments and concerns of a recession.

 

Following Boris Johnson's ouster, a number of well-known British officials are vying for the presidency, including former chancellor Rishi Sunak, foreign secretary Liz Truss, and current UK finance minister Nadhim Zahawi. Although Brexit is the main element supporting the candidate, tax cuts are being emphasized as the promise to win over supporters.

 

According to a survey of the retail sector, which was released on Tuesday by Reuters, British customers cut down on their purchases for the third month in a row, and sales volumes fell by the most since the COVID-19 outbreak.

 

The Bank of England's Andrew Bailey told Reuters that "the United Kingdom is facing a very substantial real income shock." Due to the nation's economic unease, the news also puts negative pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

On a larger scale, fears of an economic downturn were exacerbated by historically high US inflation forecasts and comments from US leaders foreseeing future suffering, which fueled the risk-averse mood and pulled down the GBP/USD currency rate. Despite this, a research by the New York Federal Reserve found that one-year inflation estimates in the US rose to a record high of 6.8 percent in June from 6.6 percent in May. Expectations of Fed aggression, which were earlier reinforced by the most recent US job statistics, are another factor adding to the market doom. While the unemployment rate held stable at 3.6 percent, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) expanded by 372K in June, above projections of 268K and a downward adjustment of 384K.

 

In this setting, equities continued to decline, while US Treasury rates showed no signs of abating. S&P 500 Futures also keep an eye on Wall Street losses as of publication.

 

For traders of the GBP/USD pair, Governor Bailey of the Bank of England's second round of testimony will be essential. However, risk factors including political events and inflationary concerns will be the major emphasis.