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February 2nd - With Kevin Warshs nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, market focus has abruptly shifted from short-term interest rates to the Feds $6.6 trillion balance sheet and its fundamental role in the market. Zach Griffiths, Head of Investment Grade Bonds and Macro Strategy at CreditSights, noted, "He has consistently been a vocal critic of the Feds balance sheet expansion." Warsh hopes to fundamentally reverse the trend of asset expansion and push for other reforms. However, this move will face complex challenges, directly impacting not only long-term interest rates but also the core markets upon which large global financial institutions rely for daily interbank lending. If policymakers agree to shrink the balance sheet, the transmission effect in the market could lead to a conflict between the Feds and the governments goals of reducing long-term borrowing costs. This could force the Treasury or other US agencies to become more deeply involved in market management, which will face even greater challenges given the continued rise in total borrowing demand and the already over $30 trillion national debt. PGIM points out that if Warshs predictions are true, then the pressure to regulate will shift to the Treasury.February 2nd - On February 1st local time, US President Trump, answering reporters questions about Iran at Mar-a-Lago, stated his hope that "a deal can be reached." Responding to Iranian Supreme Leader Khameneis warning that a US strike would trigger a regional war, Trump said that if a deal cannot be reached, "then well see if he (Khamenei) is right." Trump emphasized to reporters that the US has deployed "the worlds largest and most powerful ships" in the region. Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that Iran "remains confident" of reaching an agreement with the US on the nuclear issue.Domestic News: 1. The State Taxation Administration clarified the threshold for value-added tax (VAT) collection and management. 2. Wang Yi held strategic communication with Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. 3. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC): Investors should closely monitor changes in precious metal prices and reasonably control their position size. 4. The first-month performance reports of emerging electric vehicle manufacturers in the new year are released. Xiaomi, Wenjie, and HarmonyOS performed well, while BYDs production and sales both declined. 5. Guotou Silver LOF: Trading will be suspended from the opening of the market on February 2nd until 10:30 am on the same day. The daily price fluctuation limit after resumption of trading will be 10%. 6. China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom announced: The scope of application of VAT on telecommunications services has been adjusted, and the tax rate has increased to 9%, which will affect the companys revenue and profits. International News: 1. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament announced that the armies of European countries will be considered "terrorist organizations." 2. US media: The Speaker of the US House of Representatives said he is confident that the partial government shutdown will end by Tuesday. 3. Zelensky: A new round of trilateral talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia will be held on February 4th and 5th. 4. Saudi stocks suffered their biggest drop since June last year due to geopolitical factors and a gold price plunge. 5. Indias budget: 400 billion rupees will be allocated to support the semiconductor manufacturing industry. 6. Indias stock market held a special trading session on Sunday due to the budget, with metal stocks and ETFs suffering heavy losses. 7. OPEC+ statement: Eight member countries will maintain their original plan to suspend increases in oil production in March. 8. US-Iran situation—① It is reported that high-ranking US and Israeli military officials held intensive talks this weekend to discuss a strike against Iran. ② Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that if the US launches a war this time, it will trigger a regional conflict. ③ Iranian officials: Media reports about the Revolutionary Guard planning military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz are incorrect. ④ US media: The US military is strengthening its air defense deployment in the Middle East to prepare for potential action against Iran.OPEC+ Statement: The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) reiterated the importance of full compliance with oil production targets.On February 1st, OPEC+ held an online meeting to assess the global market situation and outlook. The eight participating countries reaffirmed the decision made on November 2nd, 2025, to suspend increased production in March 2026 due to seasonal factors. The eight countries reiterated that the previous production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day may be partially or fully restored depending on market developments, and this will be done gradually. Countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and while continuing efforts to maintain market stability, reiterated the importance of a cautious approach and sufficient flexibility to continue suspending (increased production) or canceling additional (production cuts), including the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023. The organization will hold its next meeting on March 1st, 2026.

The Ascending Triangle: What is it & How to Trade it?

Drake Hampton

Mar 24, 2022 17:32

The ascending triangle, sometimes known as the 'rising triangle,' is a popular mid-trend continuation pattern. Traders predict that the market will continue in the direction of the wider trend and therefore build trading setups. 

Learn to Trade the Ascending Triangle Pattern: Main Talking Points

  • An ascending triangle is defined as

  • Recognize an ascending triangle pattern on the FX market charts

  • The ascending triangle trading strategy

  • The ascending triangle's advantages and limitations

  • Utilize our interactive Currency Trading Patterns quiz to assess your understanding of forex patterns. 

What Is An Ascending Triangle?

The ascending triangle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern defined by a rising lower trendline and a flat upper trendline acting as support. As price continues to hit greater lows, this pattern shows that buyers are more aggressive than sellers. When price breaks out of the triangle in the direction of the broader trend, the pattern is complete.

 

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The Ascending Triangle as a Bottoming Pattern

The ascending triangle's position in regard to the trend dictates whether a reversal or continuation of the trend is more likely. At the bottom of a downtrend, the ascending triangle may form, indicating that the downward momentum is waning before potentially changing direction. As a result, the position of the pattern is critical.  

How To Identify An Ascending Triangle Pattern On Forex Charts

Once traders understand what to look for, the ascending triangle is pretty straightforward to see on forex charts.

 

Prior to the emergence of the ascending triangle, the market must be in an uptrend. This is critical and emphasizes the importance of traders not merely trading the ascending triangle pattern everytime it arises.


Consolidation: As the market enters the consolidation period, the rising triangle begins to take shape.


A rising lower trendline may be formed by connecting the lows while the market is consolidating. This ascending trendline indicates that buyers are gradually driving the price upward — providing more evidence for a bullish trading inclination.


Upper trendline is flat: The upper trendline functions as a barrier. Price frequently approaches and bounces off of this level until the breakout happens.


After price breaks decisively above the upper trendline, traders will look for confirmation of the pattern in the form of further upward momentum.

 

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Ascending Triangle Measuring Technique

The ascending triangle pattern incorporates a built-in measurement mechanism that may be used to estimate possible take profit objectives.

 

Traders can calculate the distance between the start of the pattern, at the lowest point of the rising trendline, and the flat support line for the ascending triangle. Later on, this identical distance can be transferred, beginning at the breakout point and finishing at the probable take profit level.

 

The picture below demonstrates how the distance between A and B might be projected further up, from C to D, to project a probable take profit level.

 

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How To Trade The Ascending Triangle 

When trading the ascending triangle, traders must first determine the uptrend, as seen in the USD/CAD chart below. Following that, when the forex candlesticks begin to consolidate, the ascending triangle appears. Once the triangle formed, the measuring approach may be utilized as traders await the breakout.

 

After observing a solid break over resistance, traders may open a long position, putting a stop loss at the previous swing low and establishing a take profit goal consistent with the measurement approach.

 

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Advantages And Limitations Of The Ascending Triangle

When examining probable trend continuations, the ascending triangle is a very useful pattern. It does, however, have some drawbacks, which traders should be aware of. 

 

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