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On April 26, UBS said that the current market thinking is consistent with the banks basic forecast, that is, tariffs will be reduced from the current announced level for the rest of the year, and the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates this year. However, as uncertainty in trade, economy and Federal Reserve policy remains high, expected volatility also remains high. However, UBS believes that the US stock market is attractive, and the S&P 500 index target continues to be 5,800 points by the end of the year. UBSs current basic forecast is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points this year, but in the short term, the Feds policy flexibility seems more limited because it must balance concerns about economic growth with the risk of inflation recovery.According to AFP: Senior officials said that Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump may meet in Rome.Spokesman for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived in Rome to attend the Popes funeral.According to the Ukrainian National News Agency: Russian troops launched 414 attacks in the Zaporizhia region at night.Market news: Ukrainian President Zelensky and his wife arrived in Rome.

With eyes on Fed's Powell and BoC's Mackem, USD/CAD falls toward 1.3400 as oil prices rise

Alina Haynes

Feb 07, 2023 15:56

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Tuesday morning's trading near 1.3430 represents the first negative daily performance in four days for the USD/CAD pair, extending losses near the intraday low. Despite this, the Loonie pair remains close to 12-day highs as traders await comments from Governor Tiff Macklem of the Bank of Canada (BoC) and Chairman Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve (Fed).

 

The recent decline of the quote may be related to the market's cautious optimism in light of receding economic fears. The strengthening of WTI crude oil prices, Canada's principal export commodity, might exacerbate the downturn.

 

WTI crude oil rises 0.40 percent to $75.00, extending yesterday's rebound from a two-month low. The recovery of the price of black gold may be related to diminishing fears of an economic slowdown in the United States as well as recent positive news reports regarding Sino-American ties.

 

Even though the US economic calendar was fairly silent, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and President Joe Biden's growth optimism appeared to weigh on US Dollar bulls. Despite this, it appears that hawkish Fed deliberations strengthen US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. In an interview with Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic noted, "The robust job market likely indicates 'we have a little bit more work to do.'"

 

A dash on the US diplomatic visit to Beijing and China's angry response to the US shooting down its balloon by labeling it as a spying attempt triggered the market's risk-off mentality and lifted the USD/CAD pair the day before. Recent comments by US Vice President Joe Biden appear reassuring, as he noted, "The balloon incident does not impair US-China relations."

 

After a two-day rebound from the monthly low, the 10-year US Treasury bond struggled for direction at 3.63%, while S&P 500 Futures saw minor gains reflecting the prevalent sentiment.

 

Moreover, bullish readings of the Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for January, 60.1, compared to 55.2 expected and 49.9 prior, appear to exert downward pressure on the USD/CAD exchange rate.

 

Future USD/CAD traders may react swiftly to the December Canadian trade statistics. However, the words of Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and US Vice President Joe Biden's State of the Union (SOTU) address will be crucial for providing clear directives.


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