US Dollar/JPY Yields May Fall Below 131,000 Ahead of Vice President Joe Biden's SOTU Address

At 130.90, the USD/JPY is under pressure, extending yesterday's decline from the highest level in a month. In doing so, the Yen pair tracks the recent decrease in US Treasury bond yields despite a dismal start to Tokyo trading on Wednesday. In recent times, geopolitical concerns have combined contradictory Japan data and Fedspeak to weigh on the market.

At the time of publication, rates on 10-year US Treasury notes reversed a three-day increase while retreating from a one-month high of approximately 3.68 percent to 3.67%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for the second consecutive day to approximately 103.30. In spite of this, S&P 500 Futures exhibit minor losses, mirroring Wall Street and reflecting a negative sentiment.

Japan's trade deficit decreased to -1,225.6B from -1,814.6B expected and -1,537.8B earlier, while the Current Account balance decreased to 33.4B from -1,803.6B and 98.4B.

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neel Kashkari told CNN, "We may have to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time," adding that he does not anticipate a recession. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, then declared, "Expect 2023 to be a year of large declines in inflation," adding that if data continued to come in better than anticipated, he would certainly boost rates further.

Notably, optimism surrounding the Japanese government's wage negotiations with labor leaders in March appears to have fuelled optimism at home. However, China's denial of the Pentagon's request maintains the geopolitical tension at a high level.

Traders of the USD/JPY pair should rely on Bank of Japan (BoJ) discussions to target more losses, especially in light of recent hawkish concerns surrounding the Japanese central bank. Today's State of the Union (SOTU) speech by United States Vice President Joe Biden will also be vital to follow. Reuters said prior to the event, "US Vice President Joe Biden will face Republicans who question his legitimacy and a public apprehensive about the country's direction during Tuesday's State of the Union address, which is expected to serve as a blueprint for a 2024 re-election attempt,"