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Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: On July 15th, COMEX gold initially fell before rising, closing at $4066.9/ounce, a decrease of 0.07%. Domestic SHFE gold opened higher in the night session, then quickly weakened, recovering its losses to close at 887.42 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.03%. 1. On Wednesday, the US June PPI fell 0.3% month-on-month, the largest drop since April 2025, while the market had expected it to remain flat; Mays data was revised down from 1.1% to 0.6%. The June PPI rose 5.5% year-on-year, lower than Mays 6.0%. The unexpected decline in June producer prices further indicates that US inflationary pressures are gradually easing ahead of the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Cooling expectations of a Fed rate hike provided some support for gold prices. However, reports indicate that Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh told US lawmakers that the Fed has not yet achieved its mandate to maintain price stability, but declined to reveal how or when it will address this issue, potentially weakening market expectations for a positive PPI. 2. Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with no signs of de-escalation. According to Reuters, the US launched strikes on Iranian coastal defense facilities and missile bases on Wednesday after reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports; Iran, in turn, threatened to cut off energy exports from more regions and stated it was waging a "war for the survival of the nation" with the US. Amid this escalating situation, market risk appetite has further declined, and gold prices are likely to trend weakly with a period of recovery.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: The specific monetary policy measures will be determined by the Bank of Japan.The New York Times filed a motion on Wednesday to rescind subpoenas issued by the U.S. Department of Justice to its journalists who had covered security concerns surrounding the new Air Force One aircraft gifted by Qatar.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: We will monitor market dynamics and economic indicators to achieve fiscal sustainability.July 16th - The price adjustment window for refined oil products will reopen at 24:00 on July 17th. According to industry information obtained today from Longzhong Information, the expected increase is around 250 yuan/ton, equivalent to approximately 0.18 yuan per liter, marking the ninth price increase this year. Calculations show that for a 70-liter fuel tank, filling up a private car will cost approximately 13 yuan more. However, the final price adjustment will be subject to official announcement.

US Dollar/JPY Yields May Fall Below 131,000 Ahead of Vice President Joe Biden's SOTU Address

Daniel Rogers

Feb 08, 2023 14:39

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At 130.90, the USD/JPY is under pressure, extending yesterday's decline from the highest level in a month. In doing so, the Yen pair tracks the recent decrease in US Treasury bond yields despite a dismal start to Tokyo trading on Wednesday. In recent times, geopolitical concerns have combined contradictory Japan data and Fedspeak to weigh on the market.

 

At the time of publication, rates on 10-year US Treasury notes reversed a three-day increase while retreating from a one-month high of approximately 3.68 percent to 3.67%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for the second consecutive day to approximately 103.30. In spite of this, S&P 500 Futures exhibit minor losses, mirroring Wall Street and reflecting a negative sentiment.

 

Japan's trade deficit decreased to -1,225.6B from -1,814.6B expected and -1,537.8B earlier, while the Current Account balance decreased to 33.4B from -1,803.6B and 98.4B.

 

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neel Kashkari told CNN, "We may have to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time," adding that he does not anticipate a recession. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, then declared, "Expect 2023 to be a year of large declines in inflation," adding that if data continued to come in better than anticipated, he would certainly boost rates further.

 

Notably, optimism surrounding the Japanese government's wage negotiations with labor leaders in March appears to have fuelled optimism at home. However, China's denial of the Pentagon's request maintains the geopolitical tension at a high level.

 

Traders of the USD/JPY pair should rely on Bank of Japan (BoJ) discussions to target more losses, especially in light of recent hawkish concerns surrounding the Japanese central bank. Today's State of the Union (SOTU) speech by United States Vice President Joe Biden will also be vital to follow. Reuters said prior to the event, "US Vice President Joe Biden will face Republicans who question his legitimacy and a public apprehensive about the country's direction during Tuesday's State of the Union address, which is expected to serve as a blueprint for a 2024 re-election attempt,"