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On April 3, White House aide Peter Navarro said that US President Trump’s tariffs could increase revenue by three times the size of the World War II tax increase in 1942, and could become the largest tax increase in US history.On April 3, a research report by CLSA indicated that ChinaSoft International (00354.HK)s revenue fell 1% year-on-year to RMB 16.951 billion last year, and the first disclosed AI-related revenue was RMB 957 million, accounting for 5.6% of revenue. The companys price reduction strategy has led to a decline in gross profit margin, and the main reason for the lower-than-expected net profit is a one-time impact. The bank expects the companys fundamentals to improve this year, mainly because the number of employees increased in the second half of last year. The bank expects the companys net profit to reach RMB 748 million this year, up 45.8% year-on-year, and lowered the target price from HK$7 to HK$6.5, maintaining the rating of outperforming the market.On April 3, the Australian bond market has experienced a dovish turn since the White House announced its new tariff agenda. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said that the market has priced in an 85% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May. Subsequent rate cuts are expected in August and November, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by November. He added that US tariffs have far exceeded expectations, increasing the likelihood of a trade war and recession in the United States. He also said that since goods from countries such as Vietnam are now effectively shut out of the United States, cheap goods are expected to flood other Asian markets.Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi declined to comment when asked about the possibility of retaliation against U.S. tariffs.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi: We believe that the recent US tariff measures may have a significant impact on the multilateral trading system, and we strongly call on the United States to exclude Japan from these measures.

When Will the RBA Minutes Be Released and How Will They Affect the AUD/USD?

Drake Hampton

Apr 19, 2022 09:50

These minutes will be released at the top of the hour and will generate considerable attention, given the absence of the word "patient" in the post-meeting statement.

 

"Specifically, the spotlight will be on the Board's commitment to waiting for "significant new evidence...on both [our emphasis] inflation and the evolution of labor costs" before raising the cash rate," ANZ Bank analysts said. "The bigger the commitment, the less likely a shift in May is, despite the possibility of an extremely strong Consumer Price Print."

How Might the Minutes Affect the AUD/USD Exchange Rate?

AUD/USD is already reversing an hourly bearish impulse, so anything less than hawkish could serve as a stimulus for further negative movement.

 

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Concerning the RBA Minutes

The Reserve Bank of Australia publishes the minutes of its meetings two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes contain an exhaustive record of the policy discussion, including points of contention. Additionally, they record the votes of the Committee's individual members. In general, if the RBA is pessimistic about the economy's inflation prospects, markets price in a larger probability of a rate hike, which benefits the AUD.

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