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When Will the RBA Minutes Be Released and How Will They Affect the AUD/USD?

Drake Hampton

Apr 19, 2022 09:50

These minutes will be released at the top of the hour and will generate considerable attention, given the absence of the word "patient" in the post-meeting statement.

 

"Specifically, the spotlight will be on the Board's commitment to waiting for "significant new evidence...on both [our emphasis] inflation and the evolution of labor costs" before raising the cash rate," ANZ Bank analysts said. "The bigger the commitment, the less likely a shift in May is, despite the possibility of an extremely strong Consumer Price Print."

How Might the Minutes Affect the AUD/USD Exchange Rate?

AUD/USD is already reversing an hourly bearish impulse, so anything less than hawkish could serve as a stimulus for further negative movement.

 

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Concerning the RBA Minutes

The Reserve Bank of Australia publishes the minutes of its meetings two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes contain an exhaustive record of the policy discussion, including points of contention. Additionally, they record the votes of the Committee's individual members. In general, if the RBA is pessimistic about the economy's inflation prospects, markets price in a larger probability of a rate hike, which benefits the AUD.