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On April 26, UBS said that the current market thinking is consistent with the banks basic forecast, that is, tariffs will be reduced from the current announced level for the rest of the year, and the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates this year. However, as uncertainty in trade, economy and Federal Reserve policy remains high, expected volatility also remains high. However, UBS believes that the US stock market is attractive, and the S&P 500 index target continues to be 5,800 points by the end of the year. UBSs current basic forecast is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points this year, but in the short term, the Feds policy flexibility seems more limited because it must balance concerns about economic growth with the risk of inflation recovery.According to AFP: Senior officials said that Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump may meet in Rome.Spokesman for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived in Rome to attend the Popes funeral.According to the Ukrainian National News Agency: Russian troops launched 414 attacks in the Zaporizhia region at night.Market news: Ukrainian President Zelensky and his wife arrived in Rome.

USD/CAD Bears Defeat Bulls at 1.26 as Oil Remains Firmly Bid

Drake Hampton

Apr 19, 2022 09:53

USD/CAD is a little heavy at the Tokyo open, turning red on the day and testing 1.26 at the time of writing, down from a rollover high of 1.2634 in early Asia.

 

In general, it's been a story about the US dollar at the start of the week, which is now regaining some ground. In the case of the CAD, oil prices have stabilized as well, bolstering the loonie as investors anticipate Wednesday's inflation report.

 

Investors will be watching the March Consumer Price Index for guidance on whether the Bank of Canada will continue to tighten policy following last week's half-point move to 1%. This was the central bank's largest single increase in more over two decades, and it was implemented in an attempt to rein in inflation.

 

"We expect March CPI to rise to 6.1 percent year on year, with prices rising 0.9 percent month on month," TD Securities analysts noted. "Energy will be the primary driver, with an increase of 11% in gasoline and another large contribution from food. Automobiles, clothing, and shelter should contribute to the ex. food/energy aggregate's strength, while the Bank of Canada's core inflation measures should average 3.6 percent y/y," according to TDS analysts.

US Oil Prices Increase

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil finished higher on Monday as concerns about Chinese demand amid Covid-19 lockdowns were countered by supply problems in Libya. Futures finished +1.2 percent higher at $108.21 a barrel as a result of the Libyan outages, which have heightened concerns about global supply constraints. The country's National Oil Corporation announced force majeure at an export port following the shutdown of the country's main oil field due to demonstrations over cancelled elections.

 

In thin trade, the dollar strengthened to a new two-year high, tracking higher US Treasury yields. Investors are reinvesting in the dollar and bracing for several Federal Reserve rate hikes of half a percentage point.

 

The US rate futures market has priced in a 96 percent probability of a 50 basis point tightening at the Federal Reserve's May meeting and approximately 215 basis points in cumulative rate rises in 2022, allowing for enough speculative positioning into the greenback. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield reached a three-year high of 2.884 percent.

USD/CAD

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