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July 5th - OPEC+, comprised of OPEC and other oil-producing nations, will hold its monthly meeting later today. An informed source indicated that OPEC+ has agreed in principle to increase crude oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in August. Two other sources stated that this increase is the most likely decision.July 5th - The Malian military reported on the 4th that military positions in multiple locations across Mali were subjected to a new round of coordinated attacks by armed groups. The military successfully repelled all attacks, and the attacked positions remain under its "complete control." The report stated that these attacks occurred in Agailok, Anefisse, Gao in northern Mali, and Sevare in central Mali. A local official in Gao said that before dawn on the 4th, militants launched a fierce attack on military camps with guns and rockets. A local resident said, "This morning, no one can leave their homes... The Malian armed forces have blocked all the streets. The gunfire was so intense, it felt like the roofs were about to collapse."July 5th - According to Israeli sources on the 5th local time, Israeli Transportation Minister Miri Regev confirmed that Israel deployed an Iron Dome air defense system to the United Arab Emirates in the early stages of the US-Israel-Iran conflict. This marks the first time the Iron Dome has been deployed to a country outside of Israel and the United States. Reportedly, this is the first time an Israeli government official has publicly acknowledged deploying the Iron Dome system to the UAE. Previously, related reports had been confirmed by US officials.OPEC+ sources: OPEC+ has agreed in principle to increase its oil production target by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August.On July 5th, at the 2026 Global Digital Economy Conference Results Release Conference, Lu Ya, Vice President of the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, released the "Beijing Digital Economy Development Report (2025-2026)" blue book. The report shows that in 2025, Beijings digital economy added value exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, accounting for 46.4% of GDP. It ranked second in the global digital economy benchmark city index evaluation, with a development index value of 0.770, firmly maintaining its position as a "global leading city." Lu Ya introduced that Beijings status as the "No. 1 city for artificial intelligence" continues to be consolidated. In 2025, the core artificial intelligence industry scale reached approximately 450 billion yuan, attracting over 2,500 related enterprises. As of April 2026, 225 large-scale models had been registered. Innovation and industry application of large-scale models are accelerating in both directions, rapidly empowering industrial upgrading, technological innovation, and public services. The market-oriented reform of data elements is being deepened, and breakthroughs have been achieved in the construction of "one zone and three centers." The on-exchange transaction volume of the Beijing International Big Data Exchange increased by 150% year-on-year, and the circulation of trusted data space is deepening around key areas such as healthcare and audiovisual media.

USD/CAD Bears Defeat Bulls at 1.26 as Oil Remains Firmly Bid

Drake Hampton

Apr 19, 2022 09:53

USD/CAD is a little heavy at the Tokyo open, turning red on the day and testing 1.26 at the time of writing, down from a rollover high of 1.2634 in early Asia.

 

In general, it's been a story about the US dollar at the start of the week, which is now regaining some ground. In the case of the CAD, oil prices have stabilized as well, bolstering the loonie as investors anticipate Wednesday's inflation report.

 

Investors will be watching the March Consumer Price Index for guidance on whether the Bank of Canada will continue to tighten policy following last week's half-point move to 1%. This was the central bank's largest single increase in more over two decades, and it was implemented in an attempt to rein in inflation.

 

"We expect March CPI to rise to 6.1 percent year on year, with prices rising 0.9 percent month on month," TD Securities analysts noted. "Energy will be the primary driver, with an increase of 11% in gasoline and another large contribution from food. Automobiles, clothing, and shelter should contribute to the ex. food/energy aggregate's strength, while the Bank of Canada's core inflation measures should average 3.6 percent y/y," according to TDS analysts.

US Oil Prices Increase

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil finished higher on Monday as concerns about Chinese demand amid Covid-19 lockdowns were countered by supply problems in Libya. Futures finished +1.2 percent higher at $108.21 a barrel as a result of the Libyan outages, which have heightened concerns about global supply constraints. The country's National Oil Corporation announced force majeure at an export port following the shutdown of the country's main oil field due to demonstrations over cancelled elections.

 

In thin trade, the dollar strengthened to a new two-year high, tracking higher US Treasury yields. Investors are reinvesting in the dollar and bracing for several Federal Reserve rate hikes of half a percentage point.

 

The US rate futures market has priced in a 96 percent probability of a 50 basis point tightening at the Federal Reserve's May meeting and approximately 215 basis points in cumulative rate rises in 2022, allowing for enough speculative positioning into the greenback. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield reached a three-year high of 2.884 percent.

USD/CAD

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