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On February 9th, GivTrade strategist Hassan Fawaz noted in a report that given recent signs of a cooling US job market, any significant deviation from expectations in the January non-farm payroll data could trigger sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange and bond markets. He stated, "If the data is weaker than expected, it could reignite market concerns about labor market momentum, strengthen expectations of monetary policy easing later this year, and thus put downward pressure on the dollar." He also pointed out that strong data could challenge these expectations, supporting the dollar and pushing up yields.On February 9th, Ray Farris, Chief Economist at Eastspring Investments, noted in a report that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis election victory is seen as positive for the Japanese stock market. He anticipates Takaichi will adopt a more expansionary fiscal stance, including abolishing the consumption tax and increasing defense spending. Farris added that any new fiscal stimulus measures could boost the economy and extend the growth cycle. He expects corporate earnings forecasts for 2027 to be revised upwards, and the proposed consumption tax cut could take effect in April 2027. However, additional stimulus measures will push up Japanese government bond yields, with the 10-year yield expected to rise above 2.4% in the coming quarters. This will support underlying inflation and could potentially slow or reverse the recent decline in public debt.Citigroup raised its price target for Phillips 66 (PSX.N) from $146 to $159.Citigroup raised its price target for Valero Energy (VLO.N) from $190 to $212.February 9th - Pansen Macroeconomics analyst Anchita Amayuri noted in a report that Eurozone investors believe the economic recovery has finally begun. The Sentix investor confidence index surged to 4.2 in February from -1.8 in January, far exceeding market expectations and reaching its highest level since July 2025. This growth was driven by a simultaneous rise in both the current conditions index and the expectations index. Amayuri stated that investors "extreme confidence" in the German economy also boosted overall sentiment. "We continue to expect German GDP growth to accelerate further this quarter as expansionary fiscal policies aimed at increasing defense and infrastructure spending begin to take effect," she said.

When Will the RBA Minutes Be Released and How Will They Affect the AUD/USD?

Drake Hampton

Apr 19, 2022 09:50

These minutes will be released at the top of the hour and will generate considerable attention, given the absence of the word "patient" in the post-meeting statement.

 

"Specifically, the spotlight will be on the Board's commitment to waiting for "significant new evidence...on both [our emphasis] inflation and the evolution of labor costs" before raising the cash rate," ANZ Bank analysts said. "The bigger the commitment, the less likely a shift in May is, despite the possibility of an extremely strong Consumer Price Print."

How Might the Minutes Affect the AUD/USD Exchange Rate?

AUD/USD is already reversing an hourly bearish impulse, so anything less than hawkish could serve as a stimulus for further negative movement.

 

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Concerning the RBA Minutes

The Reserve Bank of Australia publishes the minutes of its meetings two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes contain an exhaustive record of the policy discussion, including points of contention. Additionally, they record the votes of the Committee's individual members. In general, if the RBA is pessimistic about the economy's inflation prospects, markets price in a larger probability of a rate hike, which benefits the AUD.