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German Finance Minister: It would be naive to think that if we leave it alone, the situation will get better. The EU needs to respond strongly to US tariffs.UK Business Secretary: We will not rethink our fiscal rules because of US tariffs.German Finance Minister: Despite the US announcement of tariffs, negotiations are still ongoing and no one has closed the door to trade negotiations with the US.Switzerlands March CPI monthly rate will be released in ten minutes.Comprehensive tariffs and reciprocal tariffs 1. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys: On a static basis, new tariff revenues account for nearly 2% of GDP (not considering the impact of tariffs on the economy and taxes), which makes this round of tax increases the largest since the tax increases used to finance the war during World War II. 2. JPMorgan Chase report: If these tariffs are fully implemented, the actual tariff rate in the United States may rise to 25%. This will affect about $3.3 trillion worth of imported goods. This years cumulative tariff increase should be regarded as a tax increase of about $660 billion, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, making it one of the largest tax increases in modern history. 3. Capital Economics: Trumps tariffs could generate up to $700 billion (or 2.3% of GDP) in revenue each year, the average import-weighted tariff rate will jump to 19.1%, and the effective tariff rate will rise from 2.3% to around 26%, reaching the highest level in 131 years. 4. CICC: If these tariffs are fully implemented, the effective tariff rate of the United States may rise sharply by 22.7 percentage points from 2.4% in 2024 to 25.1%, which will exceed the tariff level after the implementation of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930. Tariffs may push up US PCE inflation by 1.9 percentage points and reduce real GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points, although it may also bring in more than $700 billion in fiscal revenue. 5. White House assistant Peter Navarro: Trumps tariffs may increase fiscal revenue by three times the scale of the World War II tax increase in 1942, which may become the largest tax increase in US history. 6. Trump himself said that some of the tariffs imposed this week could help the government raise more than $1 trillion in funds over the next year or so, help reduce the national debt, and may even offset some income taxes. Auto tariffs 1. White House Secretary Will Schaaf estimated that Trumps 25% tariff on cars and auto parts imported into the United States could increase "about $100 billion in new revenue." 2. Trump himself said that in a relatively short period of time, that is, one year from now, between $600 billion and $1 trillion would be raised. 3. The Yale Budget Lab, a think tank, estimates that auto tariffs could raise revenues of about $600 billion to $650 billion over 10 years, rather than in one year as Trump said, averaging $60 billion to $65 billion on an annual basis.

WTI rises to around $80.00 following a minor drop as supply concerns intensify

Daniel Rogers

Dec 28, 2022 10:57

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Futures for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have resumed their ascent after correcting to about $79.50 in the late New York session. After Russian President Vladimir Putin chose to impose a price ceiling on oil exports to the G7 and the European Union, supply concerns have increased. The oil price has sought to recover as a result.

 

Black gold is also in the spotlight despite the US Dollar Index's dismal performance (DXY). In the absence of prospective triggers, the USD index is trading flat below 104.00 despite the extreme volatility of U.S. stocks.

 

Previously, the G7 and the European Union capped the price of Russian oil at $60 per barrel in order to prevent Moscow from funding weaponry and ammunition for the war against Ukraine. In retaliation, Vladimir Putin passed a directive prohibiting the sale of Russian oil to nations that enforced the oil price ceiling. It will last from 1 February to 1 July.

 

In addition to supply concerns, China's actions to restore the economy after a protracted shutdown have injected new life into the oil bulls. Despite an increase in Covid-19 instances, the Chinese government has eliminated quarantine regulations for incoming tourists, which will reduce supply chain interruptions. Supporting the oil price is a crucial step towards reopening the economy and regaining the road of progress.

 

The modification of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projection is attributable to a new effort to eliminate restrictions on Covid-related measures in China. According to a statement made by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the agency has changed the country's GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 8.1% to 8.4%.