Apr 21, 2023 13:54
Futures for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have estimated a cushion around $77.00 during the Tokyo session. After a four-day adverse spell that raised doubts about further monetary policy tightening by global central banks, oil prices have heaved a sigh of relief.
The price of crude oil has surrendered the majority of its gains since OPEC+ announced unexpected production limits. A further decline in the price of oil would expose it to the crucial support level of $75.60. Growing concerns about a global economic downturn, coupled with the fact that central banks are preparing for a new cycle of rate hikes to combat persistent inflation, will have a significant impact on global oil demand.
Along with the Federal Reserve (Fed), it is anticipated that the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) will increase interest rates to combat persistent inflation in their respective economies. The Fed and BoE are expected to raise rates by an additional 25 basis points (bps), while investors are divided over the path of rate increases by the ECB, with options ranging from 25 to 50 bps.
No one could deny that a more conservative approach to monetary policies by the world's central banks would reignite concerns of a global recession as manufacturing activities are severely hampered.
Aside from that, investors have disregarded China's robust Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, which have bolstered signs of economic recovery and, ultimately, oil demand in the world's second-largest nation. Notably, China is the world's greatest importer of oil, and the economic recovery in China would support oil prices.