EUR/USD 1.16131
0.179%
Gold 4233.11
0.896%
Oil 58.313
-0.251%
USD/JPY 154.694
-0.074%
GBP/USD 1.31411
0.062%
GBP/JPY 203.289
0.000%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On November 13th, Deutsche Bank analyst Sanjay Raja pointed out that although the market had already anticipated a slowdown in the UK economy from its strong growth at the beginning of the year, the third-quarter data still showed a weaker-than-expected performance. He stated, "With inflation rising again and unemployment climbing, GDP growth slowed further." The UKs third-quarter economic growth was only 0.1%, placing it in the middle of the G7 and below market and Bank of England expectations. Raja believes that given the uncertainty caused by the government budget has already affected spending in October and November, with major investment and hiring decisions postponed to the new year, the UK economy is unlikely to show significant improvement before the end of this year.The Hang Seng Index closed up 150.3 points, or 0.56%, at 27,073.03 on Thursday, November 13; the Hang Seng Tech Index closed up 47.31 points, or 0.8%, at 5,981.3; the H-share Index closed up 60.07 points, or 0.63%, at 9,599.06; and the Red Chip Index closed up 8.59 points, or 0.2%, at 4,351.29.The dollar fell on Thursday as traders remained cautious about potentially weak data following the reopening of the U.S. government. The House of Representatives passed a temporary funding bill on Wednesday to end the record-long government shutdown, which President Trump subsequently signed into law. This move will allow official data releases to resume, although the specific timeline remains unclear. Kristoffer Kjaer, head of foreign exchange and interest rate strategy at Danske Bank, noted in a report that up to three jobs reports and two inflation data points could be released before the Federal Reserves December interest rate decision. However, Danske Bank expects the dollar to rebound, predicting that U.S. data may show resilience and prompt the Fed to abandon a rate cut in December.The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) says Toyota is recalling 126,691 vehicles in the United States because loss of power increases the risk of a collision.On November 13th, the following are the warehouse receipts and changes for various commodities traded on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange: 1. Lithium carbonate futures warehouse receipts: 27,508 lots, a decrease of 779 lots compared to the previous trading day; 2. Polysilicon futures warehouse receipts: 9,130 lots, a decrease of 720 lots compared to the previous trading day; 3. Industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts: 45,387 lots, a decrease of 549 lots compared to the previous trading day.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) Hit a Two-Year High of 101.851 in the Face of Risk Aversion

Drake Hampton

Apr 26, 2022 10:04

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback's value against a basket of six currencies, concluded the day up 0.62 percent to 101.735, just shy of the two-year high achieved earlier in the day at 101.851.

 

The market sentiment remains pessimistic, as evidenced by the continued decline in Asian equity futures. Concerns about China's coronavirus outbreak are growing. In Shanghai, the ban was extended to some parts of Beijing, keeping dealers on their toes. Fears of broader Chinese curbs have alarmed investors already concerned about the potential of a global downturn as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to rein in inflation.

 

Additionally, the Fed's remarks last week increased demand for the greenback. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors have fully priced in a 100 percent possibility of a 0.50 percent rate hike at the May meeting.

 

Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield, the benchmark note, has fallen ten basis points from last week's highs at 2.981 percent, to 2.818 percent.

Fed Speaking Summary from Last Week

On Thursday of last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled his support for a half-point rate hike by the May 4-5 meeting. Additionally, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that the Fed "will almost certainly" hike rates by 50 basis points in the coming months. Daly underlined that the Fed should proceed cautiously with rate hikes and aim to raise interest rates to 2.5 percent by the end of the year.

 

Elsewhere, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard acknowledged that the Fed is behind the curve, but not as much as many believe, while noting that the Fed has previously lifted 75 basis points without the world imploding.

 

Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated last Friday that she hoped to achieve neutrality at 2.5 percent by the end of the year. Mester noted that "we don't need to get there" when asked about 75-bps rises. Additionally, she favored a 50-bps hike in May and a few additional increases thereafter.

 

The US economic calendar would include March Durable Goods Orders, the US GDP for the first quarter, and March Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on annual and monthly basis, in addition to the Chicago PMI.

 

According to ING analysts, the US economy increased at a 1-1.5 percent annualized pace in Q1, which would be lower than the 6.9 percent rate recorded in Q4 of 2021, reflecting the pandemic's Omicron wave, which had a significant impact on mobility.

Forecast for the US Dollar Index (DXY): Technical Outlook

As indicated by the daily chart, the US Dollar Index (DXY) maintains an upward tilt. The 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs), which are placed at 98.596 and 95.504, respectively, are significantly below the DXY value, reinforcing the upside bias. At 71.24, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in overbought zone, indicating that the DXY trend is about to reverse.

 

DXY's initial resistance level would be 102.00. A break above would reveal March's 24 daily high of 102.21, March's 2020 daily high of 102.99, and then the aforementioned 103.82 swing high.

 

image.png 



Suggestion