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The NZD/USD exchange rate is under pressure as investors anticipate crucial US developments

Alina Haynes

Dec 12, 2022 15:37

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Beginning with a high of 0.6411 and a low of 0.6382, the NZD/USD exchange rate is down 0.25 percent, sliding from its previous high of 0.6411 to its previous low of 0.6382. To date, though, it has been the best-performing G10 currency month.

 

ANZ Bank analysts commented, "NZD seasonality is normally positive in December, but while it has that plus rising interest rates on its side, there are no guarantees that it will emerge undamaged from this week's several central bank meetings."

 

The Federal Open Market Committee is due to meet this week, and market participants anticipate a hawkish result. The US producer price index for November was somewhat higher than anticipated, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the future, albeit at a slower rate.

 

TD Securities analysts estimate that the FOMC will raise rates by 50 basis points at its meeting in December, putting the target range for the Fed funds rate to 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent. "By doing so, the Committee's inflation-adjusted monetary policy stance would move into the restrictive zone. In September, we think that the FOMC will indicate that they will have to shift to a higher-than-expected terminal rate.

 

ANZ Bank analysts stated, "Our key concern is what this may do to the USD, which has been under pressure as the "pivot" narrative has gained traction amid signs of ongoing US inflation."

 

"NZ variables will also play a role, with the HYEFU and GDP due this week," but they are likely to be overwhelmed (again!) by volatility and the global climate.

 

In other news, the US consumer inflation report on Tuesday will set the tone for markets prior to the Federal Reserve meeting. Economists forecast a fall in core inflation to 6.1% in November from 6.3% in October.

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