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December 18th - From the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, bond market interest rates experienced a rapid and significant decline, resulting in over-pricing of monetary policy easing and weakening fundamentals. Following the interest rate cut in May 2025, the 10-year Treasury bond yield did not decline significantly and continued to rise in the second half of the year despite minimal marginal changes in fundamentals, to some extent correcting the previous over-pricing. Looking ahead to 2026, the impact of monetary policy is expected to be more neutral, with marginal improvements in fundamentals gradually becoming the main logic for bond market interest rate pricing. Considering the diversion of funds from the bond market due to new regulations on mutual funds and the rectification of wealth management valuations, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is more likely to shift slightly upward, mainly operating within the 1.6%-2.0% range.The USD/KRW pair rose, last trading at 1477.65, after South Korea relaxed its capital controls on overseas dollar lending.Bank of Thailand Governor: Gold trading is affecting the Thai baht.On December 18th, PTA prices initially fell before rising this week, primarily due to a rebound in crude oil prices. Easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine and an oversupply of crude oil caused Brent crude to fall to a near four-year low, negatively impacting the PTA market. However, Trumps order to blockade oil tankers in a South American country led to a rebound in European and American crude oil futures from their near four-year lows. This week, the PTA supply and demand situation remained relatively stable, with PTA operating rates stable and downstream demand slightly recovering due to the commissioning of 300,000 tons of new polyester capacity. Next week, a 2.2 million-ton PTA plant in East China is scheduled to restart. Attention should be paid to the impact of the South American geopolitical situation on crude oil prices, as cost support is expected. A slight increase in PTA prices is anticipated in the short term.On December 18th, the overnight SHIBOR was 1.2730%, down 0.20 basis points; the 7-day SHIBOR was 1.4260%, down 0.20 basis points; the 14-day SHIBOR was 1.5820%, up 11.10 basis points; the 1-month SHIBOR was 1.5500%, up 0.90 basis points; and the 3-month SHIBOR was 1.6030%, up 0.20 basis points.

Due to China's higher-than-expected inflation, the USD/CNH exchange rate falls below 6.95

Daniel Rogers

Dec 09, 2022 15:28

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During the Asian session, the USD/CNH pair broke below the narrow consolidation created near 6.9600. The downward pressure on the main currency is a result of the higher-than-anticipated release of China's inflation data and investors' increased risk appetite.

 

China's yearly Consumer Price Index (CPI) has hit 1.6%, which is greater than the projected 1.0% but less than the prior announcement of 2.1%. While the monthly figure indicates a 0.2% decline, the annual rate is up 0.4%. The yearly Producer Price Index (PPI) data has decreased by 1.3% compared to the consensus estimate of a 1.5% decline. The economists at TD Securities projected that the annual inflation rate would decline from 2.1% to 1.5%.

 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) may be required to provide additional stimulus packages to stimulate the pace of economic activity, despite the fact that the release is greater than anticipated but in a phase of decline.

 

In the interim, the removal of Covid-19 restrictions will stimulate economic activity in China. Previously, the administration imposed limits on the movement of personnel, goods, and machines in an effort to prevent the spread of disease. Now, the reopening of the economy after domestic demonstrations will improve economic prospects.

 

As investors anticipate a delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen dramatically to near 104.56. (Fed). In addition, markets have shrugged considerable uncertainties around the Fed's peak interest rate guidance.