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On May 20th, data from the Securities Industry Association of Japan showed that overseas investors net sold 81.3 billion yen (approximately $512 million) of ultra-long-term Japanese government bonds in April, marking the first net outflow since December 2024. Following the Bank of Japans normalization of monetary policy, overseas investors have gained increasing influence in the bond market. Rising borrowing costs have kept policymakers on edge, with Finance Minister Katayama hinting at monitoring market conditions in May while considering supplementary budgets. Shinichiro Kadota, head of foreign exchange and interest rate strategy at Barclays Japan, stated that the foreign sell-off "highlights the vulnerability of the Japanese bond market." " Coupled with concerns about fiscal expansion and the central banks lagging curve, the sell-off is pushing up yields." This week, the yield on Japans benchmark 30-year government bond climbed to its highest level since its inception in 1999. Meanwhile, traditional investors in ultra-long-term bonds, life and property insurance companies, were net buyers of 327.2 billion yen of ultra-long-term bonds last month, becoming net buyers for the first time since July of last year.On May 20, President Xi Jinping held a ceremony at the East Gate Square of the Great Hall of the People in Beijing to welcome Russian President Vladimir Putin on his visit to China.On May 20th, Futures reported that since mid-to-late April, the Shandong civil gas market has been caught in a dilemma, consolidating within a narrow range, with prices fluctuating mainly between 6300-6500 yuan/ton. The price increase was hampered primarily by weak demand: rising temperatures led to a slowdown in combustion demand, coupled with concentrated maintenance shutdowns at deep-processing plants such as isobutane dehydrogenation plants, resulting in a significant decline in chemical demand. Some chemical resources were forced to flow back into the combustion market, increasing supply pressure. The key support preventing a price decline came from the opening of an arbitrage window for resource outflows: Due to maintenance shutdowns and tight port supplies in the south, the price difference between Shandong and the south widened, opening out outflow channels and providing a floor for local prices. In addition, high crude oil prices provided cost support, while weak MTBE and poor dehydrogenation profits created a reverse restraint. In the short term, chemical demand continues to decline, and resource outflows may be suppressed, leading to expectations of a price decline; however, some maintenance units are expected to resume operations at the end of the month and beginning of the next, gradually restoring chemical demand. It is expected that the room for a deep price drop is limited, and a subsequent rebound is still possible.Japans National Institute for Disaster Resilience and Safety (NIED) has preliminarily determined the magnitude of the earthquake in Japan to be 6.2.According to NHK, an earthquake with an intensity of 5+ struck the Amami region of Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan. The initial magnitude was 5.9, and no tsunami warning was issued.

The EUR/GBP is fluctuating close to 0.8750 as focus shifts to UK inflation and BoE policy

Alina Haynes

Mar 20, 2023 13:22

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The EUR/GBP pair is exhibiting a lackluster performance around 0.8750 during the Asian session. As investors prepare for the release of the Bank of England's (BOE) interest rate decision and the United Kingdom's Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week, the cross has moved sideways.

 

Despite the fact that the headline asserts that UBS has revitalized Credit Suisse, the cross appears to be weak. Credit Suisse shareholders will receive one share of UBS for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares they own, valuing the bank at $3.15 billion (£2.6 billion), according to BBC News. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) stated that the agreement was the most effective means of restoring market confidence and mitigating economic risks. Additionally, the BoE endorsed the "comprehensive set of actions."

 

The consensus opinion on the street is that Governor Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England (BoE) will provide a pessimistic outlook for the interest rate decision amidst concerns of banking turmoil, which will be his top priority.

 

Rabobank analysts also anticipate a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike and caution that the market has not fully factored in this scenario. Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, would raise rates by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent.

 

Prior to that, the UK inflation data released on Wednesday will be attentively monitored. The annual headline CPI is expected to decline from 10.1% to 9.8%, according to projections. At 5.8%, the core CPI, which excludes the cost of fuels and food, would not change. It should be aware that persistent inflation in the United Kingdom is due to rising food prices and a labor shortage.

 

After the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) last week, Gediminas imkus, a member of the ECB Governing Council, stated on Friday that "the terminal rate has not yet been reached" For further deflation, extremely persistent inflation in the Eurozone requires higher interest rates.