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On June 15th, Ben May and Bridget Payne of Oxford Economics stated in a report that while future setbacks are possible, the US-Iran agreement has reduced the risk of a continued decline in oil inventories, ultimately triggering a surge in global energy prices and leading to an economic recession. However, they noted that this does not automatically mean that the amount of oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz will increase faster than previously expected. "We had assumed that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would resume by the end of July. Nevertheless, our current short-term oil price forecasts still look overly optimistic," they added. They further reinforced their view that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will not raise interest rates, and other central banks that have already raised rates are unlikely to do so again, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to help lower inflation but has a limited impact on economic growth.The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened 634.80 points higher, or 1.24%, at 51,837.06 on Monday, June 15; the S&P 500 opened 104.15 points higher, or 1.40%, at 7,535.61; and the Nasdaq Composite opened 597.62 points higher, or 2.31%, at 26,486.47.Bahrains Foreign Ministry welcomes the memorandum of understanding reached between the US and Iran on negotiations and a ceasefire.On June 15, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae announced at a press conference that the memorandum of understanding on a ceasefire between Iran and the United States had been finalized. Iran plans to release the full text of the document and a summary of its explanation on the day the agreement is formally signed. After approximately 60 days of negotiations, the comprehensive agreement must be registered and confirmed by a legally binding and enforceable resolution of the UN Security Council.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: The EU and France will sign a €15 billion defense loan through a security program.

The AUD/JPY exchange rate fluctuates below 90.00 as investors await BoJ action

Alina Haynes

Jan 18, 2023 15:03

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In the early Asian session, the AUD/JPY currency pair is bouncing violently in a narrow range below the resistance level of 90.00. Before the Bank of Japan introduces its first monetary policy of CY2023, the risk barometer indicates a sideways auction (BoJ). The AUD/JPY exchange rate reflects the consolidation of the AUD/USD, indicating an uncertain risk profile.

 

Investors anticipate that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not alter its policy stance on Friday, as doing so would increase financial market risk and hinder efforts to boost inflation. Previously, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced that the central bank will review the negative side effects of the decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy, generating the impression that the central bank is eager to abandon the easy policy.

 

The experts at Standard Charted expect the Bank of Japan to hold both the policy balance rate and the 10-year yield goal at their present levels of -0.1% and 0%, respectively. The recent decision to expand the 10-year JGB band to +/-50 bps (from +/-25 bps) will be evaluated by policymakers at the December meeting.

 

The replacement of current Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda will be widely followed. The next BoJ governor nominee is anticipated to be presented to the Japanese parliament on February 10, Reuters reported on Tuesday. Amamiya, Nakaso, and Yamaguchi are regarded as leading C.banking candidates.

 

Thursday is the expected publication date for Australian employment statistics, which investors are monitoring. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain constant at 3.4%, according to the majority of economists. Aside from this, the Australian economy must have added 22,500 new jobs to the labor market in December, a down from the prior rises of 64K.

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