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February 8th - European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Giuseppe Cipolone stated that the ECB will assess the impact of the recent euros appreciation on consumer price growth in its quarterly forecasts to be released in March; however, the euros recent volatility has been relatively limited. According to a record published on the ECBs website on Sunday, the Italian policymaker said that officials consider the exchange rate as one of the factors "forecasting inflation dynamics." "We will observe how the new forecasts unfold and what impact they will have." At the same time, Cipolone emphasized that the ECB has not set a specific target for the euro, and that the euro exchange rate has been fluctuating around $1.17 to $1.18 for nearly a year. "After the volatility a few weeks ago, the euro exchange rate has now fallen back to the levels of the previous months," Cipolone said.1. Monday: ① Data: Japans December trade balance, Switzerlands January consumer confidence index, Eurozones February Sentix investor confidence index; ② Events: ASEAN Finance Ministers and Central Bank Deputy Working Group meeting held until February 13. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: US January New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, January NFIB small business confidence index, December retail sales month-on-month, Q4 labor cost index quarter-on-quarter, December import price index month-on-month, November business inventories month-on-month; Frances Q4 ILO unemployment rate; Chinas January M2 money supply year-on-year rate (pending); ② Events: ECB President Lagarde participates in discussions. Fed Governors Waller and Bostic deliver speeches. New York Fed releases its Q4 2025 household debt and credit report. ③ Earnings Report: Hong Kong Stock – SMIC (00981.HK). US Stocks – BP (BP.N), Spotify (SPOT.N), Coca-Cola (KO.N), AstraZeneca (AZN.O), Robinhood (HOOD.O), Ford Motor (FN). 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API crude oil inventories for the week ending February 6th, EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending February 6th; US January unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings month-on-month, final reading of the 2025 non-farm payrolls baseline change; China January CPI year-on-year rate; ② Events: EIA releases monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. Feds Hamak and Logan deliver speeches. OPEC releases monthly oil market report. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with Trump on Wednesday to discuss the Iran issue. ③ Holiday: Tokyo Stock Exchange closed. ④ Earnings Reports: Hong Kong Stocks – NetEase (09999.HK), Cloud Music (09899.HK). US Stocks – T-Mobile US (TMUS.O), NetEase Youdao (DAO.N), Cisco (CSCO.O), McDonalds (MCD.N). 4. Thursday: ① Data: US 10-year Treasury auction to February 11; UK Q4 GDP annualized rate (preliminary), December three-month GDP monthly rate, December manufacturing output monthly rate, December seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, December industrial production monthly rate; US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 7, January existing home sales (annualized), EIA natural gas storage for the week ending February 6; ② Events: Bank of Canada releases monetary policy meeting minutes. IEA releases monthly oil market report. ECB Executive Board members Schnabel, Cipollone, Chief Economist Lane, and Governing Council member Stournaras deliver speeches. ③ Holiday: No trading on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. ④ Earnings Reports: Hong Kong Stocks – Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK), Lenovo Group (00992.HK). US Stocks – Rivian (RIVN.O), Coinbase (COIN.O), Applied Materials (AMAT.O), Airbnb (ABNB.O); 5. Friday: ① Data: Swiss January CPI month-on-month rate; Eurozone Q4 GDP annual rate revision, Eurozone Q4 seasonally adjusted employment quarter-on-quarter final value, Eurozone December seasonally adjusted trade balance; US January unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate, unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate, seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate; ② Events: Federal Reserve Chairman Logan and Federal Reserve Governor Milan attend events. Chinas National Bureau of Statistics releases monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. The Central Bank of Russia announces its interest rate decision. Bank of Japan policy board member Naoki Tamura delivers a speech. ③ Holidays: No market trading on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, no night trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange. ④ Earnings Report: US Stocks – Moderna (MRNA.O) 6. Saturday: ① Data: Total number of US oil rigs for the week ending February 13; CFTC releases weekly positioning report. Market news: The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre downgraded the magnitude of the earthquake in Cuba to 5.5, with a focal depth of 15 kilometers.February 8th - Despite the silver price plunge that has almost wiped out its astonishing gains at the beginning of the year, retail investors still poured nearly $500 million into the silver market over the past week. According to data analysis from Vanda Research, retail investors poured $430 million into the largest silver ETF, SLV, in the six trading days ending Thursday, including over $100 million on January 30th, when silver prices fell 27%, marking the largest single-day drop in history. StoneX analyst Ronna OConnell stated, "People are drawn to the allure of silver." She added that silvers appeal was further amplified by its "massive sell-off," with some investors seeing it as a buying opportunity at lower prices.The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reports a 5.9-magnitude earthquake in the Cuba region.

The AUD/JPY exchange rate fluctuates below 90.00 as investors await BoJ action

Alina Haynes

Jan 18, 2023 15:03

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In the early Asian session, the AUD/JPY currency pair is bouncing violently in a narrow range below the resistance level of 90.00. Before the Bank of Japan introduces its first monetary policy of CY2023, the risk barometer indicates a sideways auction (BoJ). The AUD/JPY exchange rate reflects the consolidation of the AUD/USD, indicating an uncertain risk profile.

 

Investors anticipate that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not alter its policy stance on Friday, as doing so would increase financial market risk and hinder efforts to boost inflation. Previously, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced that the central bank will review the negative side effects of the decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy, generating the impression that the central bank is eager to abandon the easy policy.

 

The experts at Standard Charted expect the Bank of Japan to hold both the policy balance rate and the 10-year yield goal at their present levels of -0.1% and 0%, respectively. The recent decision to expand the 10-year JGB band to +/-50 bps (from +/-25 bps) will be evaluated by policymakers at the December meeting.

 

The replacement of current Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda will be widely followed. The next BoJ governor nominee is anticipated to be presented to the Japanese parliament on February 10, Reuters reported on Tuesday. Amamiya, Nakaso, and Yamaguchi are regarded as leading C.banking candidates.

 

Thursday is the expected publication date for Australian employment statistics, which investors are monitoring. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain constant at 3.4%, according to the majority of economists. Aside from this, the Australian economy must have added 22,500 new jobs to the labor market in December, a down from the prior rises of 64K.