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Goldman Sachs has raised its TTF natural gas price forecast for April 26 to €55/MWh ($19/MMBtu) due to disruptions in Qatars liquefied natural gas supply, up from €36/MWh previously.On March 3, European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Lane warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and a continued decline in oil and gas supplies in the region could lead to a "significant spike" in eurozone inflation and a "sharp decline in output." He stated that "in terms of direction, a jump in energy prices would put upward pressure on inflation, especially in the short term," and that this development would have a "negative impact" on economic growth. Lane added that "if it also triggers a repricing of risks in financial markets, the impact would be amplified." Lane cited a scenario analysis released by the ECB in December 2023, which indicated that if the Middle East conflict leads to a continued decline in energy supplies and disruptions to regional economic activity, there would be a significant spike in energy-driven inflation and a sharp decline in output. In that analysis, the ECB assumed that one-third of the oil and gas supplies transported through the Strait of Hormuz would be disrupted. In this scenario, oil prices, then around $80 per barrel, would rise by more than 50% to around $130. Eurozone economic growth would decline by 0.6 percentage points the following year, while inflation would rise by more than 0.8 percentage points.According to the Financial Times, Netflix (NFLX.O) has warned that the deal between Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.O) will result in layoffs.European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane: A protracted war with Iran could lead to a "surge" in inflation.Futures News, March 3rd: Economies.com analysts latest view: Spot gold prices rose during the days trading, having found support at $5300, which provided a technical basis for resuming its upward trend and generated significant positive momentum. With the overbought condition on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) resolved, spot gold has room for further gains, especially given the emergence of new positive converging signals, and is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term.

The AUD/JPY exchange rate fluctuates below 90.00 as investors await BoJ action

Alina Haynes

Jan 18, 2023 15:03

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In the early Asian session, the AUD/JPY currency pair is bouncing violently in a narrow range below the resistance level of 90.00. Before the Bank of Japan introduces its first monetary policy of CY2023, the risk barometer indicates a sideways auction (BoJ). The AUD/JPY exchange rate reflects the consolidation of the AUD/USD, indicating an uncertain risk profile.

 

Investors anticipate that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not alter its policy stance on Friday, as doing so would increase financial market risk and hinder efforts to boost inflation. Previously, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced that the central bank will review the negative side effects of the decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy, generating the impression that the central bank is eager to abandon the easy policy.

 

The experts at Standard Charted expect the Bank of Japan to hold both the policy balance rate and the 10-year yield goal at their present levels of -0.1% and 0%, respectively. The recent decision to expand the 10-year JGB band to +/-50 bps (from +/-25 bps) will be evaluated by policymakers at the December meeting.

 

The replacement of current Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda will be widely followed. The next BoJ governor nominee is anticipated to be presented to the Japanese parliament on February 10, Reuters reported on Tuesday. Amamiya, Nakaso, and Yamaguchi are regarded as leading C.banking candidates.

 

Thursday is the expected publication date for Australian employment statistics, which investors are monitoring. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain constant at 3.4%, according to the majority of economists. Aside from this, the Australian economy must have added 22,500 new jobs to the labor market in December, a down from the prior rises of 64K.