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On July 27th, Goldman Sachs analysts stated in a report that the Federal Reserve is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at its meeting this week. The impact of this decision will largely depend on how Fed Chairman Warsh articulates the decision and the future policy path. Analysts indicated that if the Fed decides to hold rates steady but fails to provide sufficient guidance on the economic outlook or policy response mechanisms, the currently relatively stable long-term US Treasury yield curve and the controlled inflation risk premium could face volatility risks. Currently, money market pricing indicates a 31.5% probability of a Fed rate hike this week, although the mainstream market expectation remains that rates will remain unchanged.On July 27, retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton stated that Iran may have an advantage over the United States in sustaining a protracted conflict because Iran still maintains a large weapons stockpile, while the U.S. is depleting its advanced precision-guided munitions, replenishment of which could take years. Leighton stated, "Iran still possesses a large stockpile of missiles, drones, and rockets." He estimated that despite months of U.S. strikes, Tehran still retains approximately two-thirds of its original weapons stockpile. Leighton added that while the U.S. strikes successfully destroyed command and control centers, weapons systems, and military infrastructure, they did not diminish Irans ability to continue its attacks. He cited an estimate that over 1,400 Patriot interceptor missiles may have been used to date in the conflict with Iran; if this figure is accurate, the U.S. defenses in other regions could become vulnerable while it replenishes its stockpiles.On July 27th, Elmar Voelker, senior fixed income analyst at LBBW, stated in a report that investors may focus on the number of potential dissenting votes in the Federal Reserves interest rate decision on Wednesday. He said, "We believe there could be up to three dissenting votes, as a similar number of votes were cast against the Feds then accommodative forward guidance back in April." Voelker added that if the Fed unanimously decides to adopt a wait-and-see monetary policy stance, it would be a positive surprise for the bond market, as it would shake current market participants consensus that a September rate hike is almost a certainty.On July 27th, BlueBay Chief Investment Officer Mark Dowding stated in a report that investors have every reason to believe that Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will tend to make hawkish statements and do everything possible to solidify his reputation as an inflation fighter, although he is unlikely to take any concrete action at present. He stated, "This could lead to a further flattening of the US yield curve in the short term." However, Dowding also pointed out that given the continued deterioration of the US fiscal situation and Trumps escalating spending on Middle East conflicts, these factors could eventually cause the yield curve to steepen again at some point in the future.July 27 – According to The Hill, U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy said on Sunday that it “seems unlikely” for Trump to end the war with Iran quickly, and suggested that Trump seek a path to peace from Congress. Cassidy stated, “I do think we need a more comprehensive national discussion about how to move forward. If the president can end this conflict quickly—which seems unlikely, but they still seem to be assuring us that it can be done. Well, that’s fine too.” Cassidy has consistently criticized Trump’s handling of the war, particularly its impact on the cost of living. In May, after failing to retain his Senate seat, Cassidy became one of four Republican senators supporting a war powers resolution that calls for Trump to withdraw U.S. troops deployed in Iran.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Awaits Jerome Powell

Jimmy Khan

Sep 22, 2022 14:54


Techniques for the S&P 500

As the Federal Reserve announcement later in the afternoon approaches, the S&P 500 E-mini contract is marginally higher. A 75 basis point rate increase is anticipated in the end, but there are other factors at work as well. We must, after all, wait and see what the Federal Reserve will predict on its outlook.


People will need to pay great attention to it since the market will be impacted by its economic outlook. You should be aware that these days tend to create a lot of strange signals because I think it's probable that we will witness more noise than anything else at this time.


It is more probable than not that we will drop below the 3800 level if we break below the lows of the most recent few sessions. We are going to retest the lows if we can go below that level. Unless, of course, Jerome Powell specifically declares that the Federal Reserve is going to modify its general attitude, I would view any rally at this point with extreme skepticism. With inflation still raging and as he has previously said, pain would be felt, I simply don't see how that can happen.


It's possible that some analysts will start buying since he didn't hike 100 basis points, but before it's all said and done, it should merely provide a great selling opportunity. It's difficult to say because, quite simply, it seems like optimism is a virtue and that a large portion of Wall Street still has confidence that Jerome Powell will prevent more losses. Unfortunately, inflation is destroying the US economy on Main Street, and nobody seems to be paying attention to this.