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On September 11th, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. Driven by rising energy prices, the overall CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. The report indicated that facing continued pressure from the Iran war, tariffs, and data center construction, inflation made little progress toward the Federal Reserves target last month. Previously, some officials had hinted that the decision on September 15-16 would depend on data performance; given this data, the Fed is likely to consider it a catalyst for its first interest rate hike in three years. As investors increased their bets on a rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and stock index futures remained high. Fed Chairman Warsh had previously been reluctant to reveal the Feds intentions for its next move. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is facing the challenge of a rebound in energy prices due to supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war. This week, oil prices broke through $100 per barrel, and U.S. retail diesel prices also hit a record high.September 11th - U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August as gasoline costs rebounded after two consecutive months of decline, strengthening financial markets expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next week. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-over-month last month, following a slight increase of 0.1% in July. Consumer inflation rose 3.4% in the 12 months ending in August, unchanged from July. The seasonally adjusted core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%. Thursdays data already showed a rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in August, with several key components showing strong increases, which are included in the PCE inflation calculation. This, coupled with last weeks strong August jobs report, further boosted market expectations for a rate hike next week. After the release of the U.S. August CPI data, the market estimated a roughly 90% probability of a Fed rate hike next week.The market fully expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice before the end of the year.September 11 - Following the release of the US August CPI data, the market expects a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week.The U.S. unadjusted annual inflation rate for used cars and trucks was -2.3% in August, compared with -1.9% previously.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Awaits Jerome Powell

Jimmy Khan

Sep 22, 2022 14:54


Techniques for the S&P 500

As the Federal Reserve announcement later in the afternoon approaches, the S&P 500 E-mini contract is marginally higher. A 75 basis point rate increase is anticipated in the end, but there are other factors at work as well. We must, after all, wait and see what the Federal Reserve will predict on its outlook.


People will need to pay great attention to it since the market will be impacted by its economic outlook. You should be aware that these days tend to create a lot of strange signals because I think it's probable that we will witness more noise than anything else at this time.


It is more probable than not that we will drop below the 3800 level if we break below the lows of the most recent few sessions. We are going to retest the lows if we can go below that level. Unless, of course, Jerome Powell specifically declares that the Federal Reserve is going to modify its general attitude, I would view any rally at this point with extreme skepticism. With inflation still raging and as he has previously said, pain would be felt, I simply don't see how that can happen.


It's possible that some analysts will start buying since he didn't hike 100 basis points, but before it's all said and done, it should merely provide a great selling opportunity. It's difficult to say because, quite simply, it seems like optimism is a virtue and that a large portion of Wall Street still has confidence that Jerome Powell will prevent more losses. Unfortunately, inflation is destroying the US economy on Main Street, and nobody seems to be paying attention to this.