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July 2nd - On Thursday, the Swiss franc retreated from its intraday high against the US dollar after weaker-than-expected Swiss consumer price index data was released. However, the pair remained within its weekly range, not far from its one-year high of 0.8140. Swiss inflation slowed to 0% month-on-month in June from 0.2% in May, a larger slowdown than the market expectation of 0.1%. Year-on-year inflation also fell to 0.5% from 0.6% in May. This data effectively confirms that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain its benchmark interest rate at its current 0% level for the remainder of the year and possibly until 2027. With investors increasing their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike, the SNBs low interest rates could become a headwind for the francs rebound. Later today, market focus will shift to the US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to show 110,000 new jobs added in June, following three months of strong job growth. Investors will analyze this data from a monetary policy perspective, looking for confirmation signals of a Fed rate hike in September. The US dollar faces significant upside risks.Gold hit a new intraday high during Thursdays European session, continuing its steady rebound amid a slightly weaker dollar. However, high expectations of a Fed rate hike and geopolitical risks supporting the dollar kept gold prices within the previous trading days range. Traders also remained cautious ahead of the highly anticipated US monthly jobs data, avoiding aggressive directional bets. The CME FedWatch tool showed traders still pricing in a roughly 64% probability of a Fed rate hike in September and nearly 85% before the end of the year. Fed Chairman Warshs remarks on Wednesday reinforced these expectations, stating that the Fed would adhere to its 2% inflation target. Market focus is now shifting to the upcoming US non-farm payroll report. Technically, gold remains below the 100-period moving average, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias.German Chancellor Merz: Proposals to simplify tax laws will be put forward this fall.German government documents show that by the end of 2026, Germany will launch a plan to accelerate the expansion of its power grid.German Chancellor Merz: Germanys pension reform will be completed by the end of the year.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Awaits Jerome Powell

Jimmy Khan

Sep 22, 2022 14:54


Techniques for the S&P 500

As the Federal Reserve announcement later in the afternoon approaches, the S&P 500 E-mini contract is marginally higher. A 75 basis point rate increase is anticipated in the end, but there are other factors at work as well. We must, after all, wait and see what the Federal Reserve will predict on its outlook.


People will need to pay great attention to it since the market will be impacted by its economic outlook. You should be aware that these days tend to create a lot of strange signals because I think it's probable that we will witness more noise than anything else at this time.


It is more probable than not that we will drop below the 3800 level if we break below the lows of the most recent few sessions. We are going to retest the lows if we can go below that level. Unless, of course, Jerome Powell specifically declares that the Federal Reserve is going to modify its general attitude, I would view any rally at this point with extreme skepticism. With inflation still raging and as he has previously said, pain would be felt, I simply don't see how that can happen.


It's possible that some analysts will start buying since he didn't hike 100 basis points, but before it's all said and done, it should merely provide a great selling opportunity. It's difficult to say because, quite simply, it seems like optimism is a virtue and that a large portion of Wall Street still has confidence that Jerome Powell will prevent more losses. Unfortunately, inflation is destroying the US economy on Main Street, and nobody seems to be paying attention to this.