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1. Barclays: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank governor has clearly stated that the central banks policy objectives are unusually aligned in one direction: raising interest rates. 2. Reuters poll: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. 28 out of 31 economists predict the Bank of Korea will raise its benchmark interest rate to 3.00% by the end of the year. 3. HSBC: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, as the won continues to face depreciation pressure, core inflation remains strong, and the outlook for South Korean economic growth has improved. 4. Bank of America: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The banks stance on the won may be more crucial than the rate hike itself, as policymakers may focus on the wons continued weakness. 5. Scotiabank: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The governor has previously given strong hints, and South Korean inflation continues to exceed the target, with the wons depreciation exacerbating imported inflation. 6. Citibank: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and its governor will hint at 25 basis point increases every quarter in the second half of the year; further rate hikes are expected in July and October this year, and January and April next year. 7. KB Financial Group: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank may raise rates twice this year, but the probability of another rate hike in October is higher than consecutive rate hikes in July and August. 8. NH Investment & Securities: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank may not provide a specific timetable for further rate hikes to avoid the side effects of forward guidance. 9. Hanwha Investment & Securities: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This meeting may have an overall hawkish tone. Whether economic growth forecasts are revised upwards and the guidance on the future pace of rate hikes will be key points to watch. 10. Crédit Agricole: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. As the central bank will not update its economic forecasts and forward guidance until August, and oil prices have fallen, the central bank is more likely to raise rates again in October. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol: Markets are nervous about the renewed escalation of the conflict with Iran.July 16 – The U.S. government imposed sanctions on several individuals and entities on Wednesday, alleging they belong to an international network assisting Iran in procuring weapons. The U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement that the sanctions target Iranian and Russian nationals, as well as multiple entities located in Iran, Russia, and Nigeria. The Treasury Department stated that Wednesdays sanctions "fully illustrate how Iran uses foreign airlines and transport companies, financial channels, and travel coordinators to conceal the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps role in illicit procurement and the global movement of supplies and personnel."A Reuters poll shows that more than half of Japanese companies believe the weak yen is bad for their profits.A Reuters poll shows that nearly one-third of Japanese companies say the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes to date have hurt capital investment.

S&P 500 (SPY) Retreats As Treasury Yields Test New Highs

Jimmy Khan

Sep 23, 2022 14:35

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Consumer Cyclical Stocks Drop Amid Fears of a Recession

As traders continue to pay attention to the aggressive Fed, the S&P 500 is still under pressure. A further deterrent for markets was today's Initial Jobless Claims data, which showed that 213,000 Americans applied for jobless benefits in a week. The Fed is being forced to boost rates rapidly in an effort to temper demand because the employment market is still tight.


Consumer cyclical equities, which were among the losses yesterday, are now under significant pressure. In today's trading session, shares of Expedia, Etsy, and Caesars Entertainment are down 5–8%. When customers cut down on "unnecessary" expenditures, the market gets ready for a recession.


Treasury rates are steadily increasing, which is negative for technology equities. The yield on 10-year Treasuries is now attempting to rise beyond the 3.70% mark. Such yields last seen in 2011 before this.

Among the greatest losers in the IT industry are AMD and NVIDIA. Traders worry that falling PC demand would adversely affect their performance.


The price of energy equities is rising right now. Refining stocks like Valero Energy, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum are among the market leaders.


From a broad perspective, the market is still gloomy. Rising Treasury rates show that bond market participants are continuing to be ready for the Fed's aggressive rate increases. Stocks can come under greater pressure if Treasury rates reach fresh highs.

Tests Support At 3750 For S&P 500

The S&P 500 is now attempting to settle below the 3750 level of support. In the event that this effort is successful, it will move in the direction of the next support, which is at 3725. A move below this point will allow for a test of the support level at 3700. If the S&P 500 drops below 3700, it will move in the direction of support at 3660.


The S&P 500's closest upward resistance level is found at 3780. The S&P 500 will go toward the next barrier at 3800 if it rises over this point. If this level is successfully tested, the S&P 500 will move closer to the 3825 resistance level.