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On April 26, UBS said that the current market thinking is consistent with the banks basic forecast, that is, tariffs will be reduced from the current announced level for the rest of the year, and the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates this year. However, as uncertainty in trade, economy and Federal Reserve policy remains high, expected volatility also remains high. However, UBS believes that the US stock market is attractive, and the S&P 500 index target continues to be 5,800 points by the end of the year. UBSs current basic forecast is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points this year, but in the short term, the Feds policy flexibility seems more limited because it must balance concerns about economic growth with the risk of inflation recovery.According to AFP: Senior officials said that Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump may meet in Rome.Spokesman for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived in Rome to attend the Popes funeral.According to the Ukrainian National News Agency: Russian troops launched 414 attacks in the Zaporizhia region at night.Market news: Ukrainian President Zelensky and his wife arrived in Rome.

Prior to UK/US PMI, GBP/USD Justifies Monday's Bearish Doji to Drop to 1.2000

Alina Haynes

Feb 21, 2023 15:18

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In the early hours of Tuesday morning, GBP/USD retests intraday lows at 1.2020 as traders celebrate the return of Western traders after a lengthy weekend owing to American holidays. In addition to the return of the entire market, the traders of the Cable pair express concern over the Brexit deal negotiations and worries regarding the trust of small industries.

 

Late on Monday, the UK Times claimed that British Ministers are willing to resign over (Prime Minister) Rishi Sunak's Brexit proposal if it undermines Northern Ireland's position inside the United Kingdom. The Times said that "the hostility of euroskeptic Tory lawmakers to the accord is rising."

 

In another article, The Times quotes a Barclay's industrial poll to show that small business owners are becoming more hopeful about the future. The same adds to evidence that the United Kingdom's economic outlook may not be as grim as feared and stated in the press.

 

Concerns of a monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) appear to be weighing on the GBP/USD exchange rate, as seen by the week's mixed British results and the robust American data.

 

Notwithstanding this, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes are near their highest levels since early November 2022, with bids hanging around 3.86 percent.

 

Meanwhile, geopolitical concerns emanating from China and Russia appear to enhance the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and weigh on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

The initial figures of the S&P Global PMIs for February will be crucial for GBP/USD traders. To stabilize prices, however, favorable news from the United Kingdom is essential, since recent US Treasury bond yield movements have favored the US Dollar ahead of the most critical US PMIs.


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