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On April 3, Kimberly Clausing, a former Biden administration official and nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, called Trumps tariff announcement on Wednesday "very stubborn and much worse than I expected." "I expected things to be bad, but I didnt expect this level of self-harm. Its shocking that anyone thought this was a good idea. Id be shocked if we can get through this without a recession and Trump doesnt have to reverse his policies."On April 3, some economists worry that if Trump does not quickly cancel the latest round of tariffs, it may push the US economy into a recession. "If the US government implements these higher tariffs without major exemptions, it will be difficult for the economy to digest this. A recession seems more likely." said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys Analytics. Zandi said, "In many ways, the tariffs announced by Trump are even worse than the worst case scenario he envisioned. If they stick to it, I will buckle up and prepare for the impact." Zandi added that on a static basis, tariffs account for nearly 2% of GDP (not considering the impact of tariffs on the economy and taxes), which makes this round of tariffs the largest tax increase since the tax increase used to finance the war during World War II.German Automobile Industry Association VDA: The EU must now speed up and make up its mind on the issue of free trade agreement.On April 3, the Reserve Bank of Australias latest report for the banking industry warned that continued uncertainty in US trade policy "could have a chilling effect on business investment and household spending decisions, and pose a significant headwind to the outlook for global economic activity and inflation." The Reserve Bank of Australia said there was also considerable uncertainty about the impact of possible changes in fiscal, regulatory and other government policies on global growth and inflation.The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 564.32 points, or 2.43%, to 22,638.21 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 168.53 points, or 3.11%, to 5,257.91 points; the CSI 300 Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 219.05 points, or 2.57%, to 8,312.46 points; the H-share Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 61.24 points, or 1.59%, to 3,800.76 points.

Prior to UK/US PMI, GBP/USD Justifies Monday's Bearish Doji to Drop to 1.2000

Alina Haynes

Feb 21, 2023 15:18

 GBP:USD.png

 

In the early hours of Tuesday morning, GBP/USD retests intraday lows at 1.2020 as traders celebrate the return of Western traders after a lengthy weekend owing to American holidays. In addition to the return of the entire market, the traders of the Cable pair express concern over the Brexit deal negotiations and worries regarding the trust of small industries.

 

Late on Monday, the UK Times claimed that British Ministers are willing to resign over (Prime Minister) Rishi Sunak's Brexit proposal if it undermines Northern Ireland's position inside the United Kingdom. The Times said that "the hostility of euroskeptic Tory lawmakers to the accord is rising."

 

In another article, The Times quotes a Barclay's industrial poll to show that small business owners are becoming more hopeful about the future. The same adds to evidence that the United Kingdom's economic outlook may not be as grim as feared and stated in the press.

 

Concerns of a monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) appear to be weighing on the GBP/USD exchange rate, as seen by the week's mixed British results and the robust American data.

 

Notwithstanding this, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes are near their highest levels since early November 2022, with bids hanging around 3.86 percent.

 

Meanwhile, geopolitical concerns emanating from China and Russia appear to enhance the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and weigh on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

The initial figures of the S&P Global PMIs for February will be crucial for GBP/USD traders. To stabilize prices, however, favorable news from the United Kingdom is essential, since recent US Treasury bond yield movements have favored the US Dollar ahead of the most critical US PMIs.


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