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Real-time News
Futures News, April 29th - According to foreign media reports, palm oil futures on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) are likely to open higher on Wednesday morning, following gains in external markets. International crude oil futures continued to rise on Tuesday, gaining nearly 3%, due to ongoing concerns about supply constraints caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This, coupled with a firm rise in Chicago soybean oil futures, will boost the early performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak palm oil export demand will limit the upward momentum. The Indian Refiners Association (SEA) stated that increased biodiesel production in global palm oil exporting countries, diverting more palm oil for domestic energy use, will lead to a reduction in export supply.On April 29th, Futures News reported that Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures closed higher on Tuesday, with the benchmark contract rising 1.3%, primarily due to stronger international crude oil futures, robust corn demand, and the possibility that rainfall in the Midwest might slow spring planting. Traders stated that continued rainfall in the US Corn Belt, strong corn export demand, and rising crude oil prices supported corn prices. High fertilizer costs are expected to lead farmers to reduce corn planting area, which also supported corn futures prices. Soybean and corn planting in the US is progressing well, but storms in the Midwest may delay planting in some areas. A report from the US Department of Agriculture showed that as of Sunday, US corn planting progress was 25%, well above the five-year average of 19%. The report also showed that among the 18 major producing states, only North Dakota has not yet made any progress in planting.On April 29th, HSBC stated in a research report that the UAEs exit from OPEC+ will have a limited impact on the oil market in the short term, but may weaken the organizations supply discipline and price management capabilities over time. HSBC expects little change in global oil supply in the short term, as crude oil exports from the Gulf region have remained restricted since the end of February. The UAEs room for production increases is limited during the period of restricted shipping routes. The Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline has a daily capacity of approximately 1.8 million barrels and is likely already operating at full capacity. Once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the UAE will no longer be bound by OPEC+ production quotas and can gradually increase production. The bank estimates that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)s daily production could rise to over 4.5 million barrels, while OPEC+s quota until May 2026 is approximately 3.4 million barrels per day. HSBC stated that any supply increases are expected to be released in stages over 12 to 18 months, rather than immediately.On April 29th, Futures News reported that, according to foreign media, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soft red winter wheat futures surged on Tuesday, with the benchmark contract rising 4.5%, reaching its highest level in 14 months. This was mainly due to the ongoing drought in winter wheat producing regions and the continued rise in international crude oil futures, attracting technical buying. The benchmark contract touched its highest level since the end of February 2025 during the session. The severe drought in the US winter wheat producing regions could lead to crop failure, attracting a large influx of speculative buying.On April 29th, former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and economist Roger Ferguson stated, "Regarding the dual mandate, the Fed will indicate that the labor market is broadly stable. As for the inflation mandate, (with inflation still hovering at a high 3%), there is still much work to be done." He anticipates the Fed will say, "We will hold steady for now and see how things develop." Similarly, Goldman Sachs economist David Merrick expects the Feds post-meeting statement to acknowledge improvements in the labor market and rising inflation data, but to maintain its current policy guidance. We expect a majority to still support keeping interest rates unchanged, with only one dissenting voice, similar to the situation in March.

Oil Quiet As Price Cap Suggestion Assists in Relieving Supply Concerns

Skylar Williams

Nov 25, 2022 14:48

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Benchmark Brent oil declined on Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude remained unchanged, hovering at two-month lows due to uncertainty about the degree to which a proposed G7 restriction on the price of Russian oil would limit supply.


A larger-than-anticipated rise in gasoline inventories in the United States and an expansion of COVID-19 limitations in China also knocked on oil prices.


At 15.15 p.m. ET (2015 GMT), Brent oil prices decreased 29 cents, or 0.3%, to $85.12 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude futures decreased 2 cents, to $77.96 per barrel.


Due to the Thanksgiving break in the United States, trade volumes were quite low.


The announcement on Wednesday that the expected price ceiling for Russian oil may surpass the current market level triggered a decrease of about 3 percent for both benchmarks.


European Union nations remained divided over what level to cap Russian oil prices to limit Moscow's ability to pay for its battle in Ukraine without causing a global oil supply shock; if positions converge on Friday, more conversations are possible.


A European official claimed that the G7 is discussing a cap of $65-$70 per barrel for Russian oil transported by sea, but European Union member states have not yet reached an agreement on a price.


A higher price ceiling might encourage Russia to continue selling its oil, decreasing the possibility of a global oil supply shortage.


According to two sources, several Indian refiners are discounting Russian Urals crude by between $25 and $35 per barrel compared to the worldwide benchmark Brent oil. Urals is Russia's principal crude export.


Despite the obstacles, Bart Melek, global head of commodities market strategy at TD Securities, is rather optimistic about oil. "The Russian price ceiling is another aspect that contributed to the current price fall," he stated.


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that gasoline and distillate inventories in the United States climbed substantially during the previous week. [EIA/S]


In contrast, oil stockpiles decreased by 3.7 million barrels to 431.7 million barrels in the week ending November 18, despite a Reuters survey predicting a reduction of 1.1 million barrels.


China reported the highest daily number of COVID-19 cases since the outbreak began over three years ago on Wednesday. Local officials intensified measures to remove the breakouts, raising investor anxiety over the economy and demand for fuel.

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