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On April 4, the Yangtze River Delta Railway ushered in the peak of passenger flow during the Qingming Festival. It is expected to send 4.1 million passengers today, 365,000 more than the same period last year, an increase of about 9.8%, and is expected to set a new record for single-day passenger volume. This years Qingming Festival railway transportation will start from April 3 to 7. The Yangtze River Delta Railway is expected to send 17.6 million passengers in 5 days, with an average daily passenger flow of 3.52 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%.The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note fell to a six-month low of 3.6550% and was last at 3.6611%.On April 4, local time on April 3, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert Kennedy Jr. said that about 20% of the layoffs in the Department of Government Efficiency were wrong and needed to be corrected. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services laid off about 10,000 people on the 1st. Kennedy said that people who should not have been laid off were laid off, and the department is restoring their positions. Kennedy said that canceling the entire lead poisoning prevention and monitoring department of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was one of the mistakes. At present, it is unclear what other projects Kennedy may plan to restore.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Will consider the impact of food costs on consumers.On April 4, local time on the 3rd, the automobile company Stellantis said that due to the impact of the US import automobile tariff policy, the company decided to lay off 900 employees in its five US factories and suspend production operations at two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. Antonio Filosa, Chief Operating Officer of Stellantis Americas, said that the US factories that were laid off were powertrain and stamping parts factories, which produced spare parts for two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. According to the plan, the assembly plant in Canada will stop production for two weeks, and the assembly plant in Toluca, Mexico will suspend production throughout April. Filosa said the company is "continuing to evaluate the medium- and long-term impact of tariffs on operations."

NZD/USD Remains Under Pressure Around 0.6250 Amid Good Friday Holiday, With US NFP Data In Focus

Alina Haynes

Apr 07, 2023 11:47

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During the inactive Asian session on Good Friday, the NZD/USD maintains losses near 0.6245-40. The New Zealand traders take a breather after the price dropped the most in a month the day before. In addition to the lack of liquidity induced by the holidays, the cautious tone preceding the March US employment data also impedes the immediate movement of the quote.

 

The recent decline in price may be attributed to the market's pessimism regarding the health of the world's largest economy, the United States, as well as fears of contagion. Notably, the Fed's diminishing hawkish bets prevent the US Dollar from bolstering the risk-averse sentiment.

 

Nonetheless, fears of a recession increased after US Initial Jobless Claims improved to 228K for the week ending March 31, compared to the expected 200K and the upwardly revised 246K from the previous week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Since the outset, US data have been negative, especially in terms of employment and economic activity, fueling fears of a decline. Previously, US JOLTS Job Openings dropped to a 19-month low in February, and March's ADP Employment Change figures of 145K were also disappointing to markets. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI for March decreased to 51.2 from 54.5 previously and 55.1 expected.

 

In addition to US data, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred economic indicator specifies recession concerns, which impact the NZD/USD exchange rate. The 'near-term forward spread,' which compares the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now to the current yield on three-month Treasury bills, is the most reliable bond market indicator of an impending economic contraction, according to Fed research.

 

Domestically, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) defies the prevailing trend of suspending rate hikes and rather surprises the markets by increasing the benchmark rate by 0.50 percentage points. In response to the aforementioned negative catalysts, traders became more skeptical of the NZD/USD pair's prior rally and subsequently inundated the pair with additional strength.

 

Benchmarks on Wall Street are nursing their wounds, while 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bond yields remain under pressure despite recent consolidation around 3.30 percent and 3.83 percent, respectively. Despite this, S&P 500 Futures experience modest losses amidst inactive markets.

 

Given the pause in market activity caused by the holidays, today's US employment report may cause wild market fluctuations, especially in light of recent recession fears and dismal US data. The market expects the primary Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) number to be 240K, down from 311K previously, and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.6%.


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