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1. Global semiconductor stocks suffered a massive sell-off on Thursday, with investors questioning the sustainability of the AI-driven rally. The South Korean KOSPI fell over 6%, triggering another circuit breaker during trading; SK Hynix fell over 11%, the Nikkei 225 fell 2.79%, and Kioxia fell 15%. A-shares also saw a significant correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points. 2. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 52,552.97 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,533.77 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.47% to 25,881.95 points. Goldman Sachs fell nearly 5%, and Google fell over 4%, leading the decline in the Dow. The Wind US Tech Big Seven Index fell 1.31%, with Facebook and Nvidia falling over 2%. SpaceX fell over 3%. Semiconductor and memory stocks also plummeted, with Seagate Technology falling 10% and Western Digital falling over 9%. 3. European stock indices closed mixed. The German DAX index fell 0.34% to 24,915.49 points, the French CAC40 index fell 0.05% to 8,377.86 points, and the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.54% to 10,572.24 points. 4. International precious metals futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 1.77% to $3,979.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.90% to $55.77 per ounce. 5. The WTI crude oil futures contract closed down 0.03% at $79.58 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures contract fell 0.11% to $84.86 per barrel.Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson: If the increased productivity of artificial intelligence can reduce production costs sooner, inflation may face downward pressure.Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson: The economic shock caused by artificial intelligence may have a lasting impact on supply and demand.Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson: A series of rapid shocks could cause inflation to solidify and inflation expectations to lose their anchor.Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson: We cannot look at each factor in isolation; we must consider the overall economy when making policies.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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