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On October 24, according to TASS, the Russian State Duma has passed the draft federal budget for 2025 and the 2026-2027 planning period in the first reading. According to the document, federal budget revenue is expected to be 40.29 trillion rubles (430 billion US dollars) in 2025, 41 trillion rubles in 2026, and 43 trillion rubles in 2027. Federal budget expenditure is expected to be 41 trillion rubles in 2025, 44 trillion rubles in 2026, and 45 trillion rubles in 2027. The federal budget deficit is expected to reach 1.173 trillion rubles in 2025, 2.181 trillion rubles in 2026, and 2.761 trillion rubles in 2027. Russias GDP is expected to be 214 trillion rubles in 2025 (up 2.5%), 230 trillion rubles in 2026 (up 2.6%), and 248 trillion rubles in 2027 (up 2.8%). Inflation is expected to be 4.5% in 2025 and 4% in 2026 and 2027.On October 24, the China Passenger Car Association predicted that the narrow passenger car retail market in October will be around 2.2 million vehicles, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year and 4.3% month-on-month. New energy vehicle retail sales are expected to reach 1.15 million, a month-on-month increase of 2.4%, and a penetration rate of about 52.3%.Polish Prime Minister Tusk: During Polands term as the rotating presidency of the European Union, enlarging the European Union will be a key issue we focus on.October 24: The trading volume of building materials was 118,500 tons, an increase of 17.21% from the previous trading day. October 23: The trading volume of building materials was 101,100 tons, a decrease of 14.47% from the previous trading day. October 22: The trading volume of building materials was 118,200 tons, a decrease of 3.51% from the previous trading day. October 21: The trading volume of building materials was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 7.96% from the previous trading day. October 18: The trading volume of building materials was 133,100 tons, an increase of 52.64% from the previous trading day. October 17: The trading volume of building materials was 87,200 tons, a decrease of 15.83% from the previous trading day. Last weeks average: The trading volume of building materials was 111,700 tons.October 24, a survey released on Thursday showed that British manufacturing business confidence fell at the fastest rate in two years before the British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves announced her first budget next week. But factories reported that cost pressures have eased and the current rate of increase is the slowest in four years. CBI Chief Economist Ben Jones said he expected the downturn in manufacturing confidence to bottom out, and Reeves budget speech on October 30 was an opportunity to change the tone. Jones said: "Manufacturers will expect the chancellor to provide a confidence-boosting budget to support business and investment. Although possible tax increases remain a concern, companies believe that clarity on future tax plans and measures to improve productivity will help consolidate the long-term growth path."

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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