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April 3 - According to data from online platforms, as of April 3, the total box office revenue for films in 2026 (including pre-sales) has exceeded 12 billion yuan.On April 3, Carson Groups chief macro strategist, Sonu Varghese, stated that the latest labor force data indicates that the economy is adding enough jobs to keep pace with population growth. However, he pointed out, "This will complicate matters for the Federal Reserve, making it pointless to consider rate cuts, especially given the scale of the impending inflationary shock." He added that inflation was already present before the Middle East crisis that caused energy prices to soar, "ultimately, last years rate cuts appear to have been a mistake."April 3rd - According to foreign media reports, strong US labor market data reduced market bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, causing US Treasury prices to fall and yields to rise by 3 to 5 basis points, with the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield leading the gains. The market had previously expected the Fed to ease monetary policy by only about 1 basis point this year, compared to about 4 basis points before the report was released. David Robin, interest rate strategist at TJM Institutional Services LLC, said the Fed is "very likely to keep rates unchanged until the end of June, or even longer." He added, "This is pre-conflict data, but even so, it shows a higher baseline (for rate cuts)."On April 3, the Ministry of Commerce held a national teleconference to advance the "trade-in" program for consumer goods, summarizing the progress and achievements of the program in the first quarter and outlining key tasks for expanding consumption in the next phase. Vice Minister of Commerce Sheng Qiuping attended and addressed the meeting. Representatives from Zhejiang, Henan, Chongqing, and Shenzhen shared their experiences in expanding consumption. Jiangxi and Hunan explained the slow progress in disbursing subsidies for the "trade-in" program. The meeting emphasized that all regions and relevant departments should continuously optimize the implementation mechanism of the "trade-in" policy and ensure its effective and orderly implementation. It stressed accelerating the efficient direct connection between central and local platforms, strengthening data connectivity and interaction, continuously improving the efficiency of subsidy review and disbursement, and enhancing the consumer experience. The meeting also emphasized maintaining a strict approach, rigorously preventing and investigating fraudulent subsidy claims, and severely cracking down on illegal and irregular activities to ensure that subsidy funds are used effectively and achieve tangible results.Iranian media quoted the deputy political governor of Ilam province as saying that claims of US troops entering or being deployed in Ilam province by helicopter are untrue, and that the security situation in Ilam province is currently completely stable; we urge the public not to pay attention to rumors and to obtain information through official channels.

NZD/USD Remains Under Pressure Around 0.6250 Amid Good Friday Holiday, With US NFP Data In Focus

Alina Haynes

Apr 07, 2023 11:47

NZD:USD.png 

 

During the inactive Asian session on Good Friday, the NZD/USD maintains losses near 0.6245-40. The New Zealand traders take a breather after the price dropped the most in a month the day before. In addition to the lack of liquidity induced by the holidays, the cautious tone preceding the March US employment data also impedes the immediate movement of the quote.

 

The recent decline in price may be attributed to the market's pessimism regarding the health of the world's largest economy, the United States, as well as fears of contagion. Notably, the Fed's diminishing hawkish bets prevent the US Dollar from bolstering the risk-averse sentiment.

 

Nonetheless, fears of a recession increased after US Initial Jobless Claims improved to 228K for the week ending March 31, compared to the expected 200K and the upwardly revised 246K from the previous week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Since the outset, US data have been negative, especially in terms of employment and economic activity, fueling fears of a decline. Previously, US JOLTS Job Openings dropped to a 19-month low in February, and March's ADP Employment Change figures of 145K were also disappointing to markets. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI for March decreased to 51.2 from 54.5 previously and 55.1 expected.

 

In addition to US data, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred economic indicator specifies recession concerns, which impact the NZD/USD exchange rate. The 'near-term forward spread,' which compares the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now to the current yield on three-month Treasury bills, is the most reliable bond market indicator of an impending economic contraction, according to Fed research.

 

Domestically, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) defies the prevailing trend of suspending rate hikes and rather surprises the markets by increasing the benchmark rate by 0.50 percentage points. In response to the aforementioned negative catalysts, traders became more skeptical of the NZD/USD pair's prior rally and subsequently inundated the pair with additional strength.

 

Benchmarks on Wall Street are nursing their wounds, while 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bond yields remain under pressure despite recent consolidation around 3.30 percent and 3.83 percent, respectively. Despite this, S&P 500 Futures experience modest losses amidst inactive markets.

 

Given the pause in market activity caused by the holidays, today's US employment report may cause wild market fluctuations, especially in light of recent recession fears and dismal US data. The market expects the primary Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) number to be 240K, down from 311K previously, and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.6%.


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