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February 13th - Citigroup has increased CEO Sergey Fraziers 2025 compensation to $42 million, placing her among the highest-paid bank leaders in the United States. According to a filing on Thursday, this 22% increase follows a strong 66% rise in Citigroups stock price over the past year—a rise exceeding that of any other major Wall Street bank. This raise brings Fraziers total annual compensation package to just $1 million less than that of JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. The compensation package includes a $1.5 million base salary, $6.1 million in cash awards, and the remaining stock awards. In addition, Frazier received a retention bonus worth $25 million at the time, which will vest fully after five years, when she was appointed chair of the banks board in October 2025. Citigroup stated in the filing that the compensation package "reflects her work in significantly enhancing Citigroups performance during 2025, her strategic vision and execution, and her bold decisions for the companys future growth."The Office of the United States Trade Representative announced that the United States and North Macedonia have reached a trade framework agreement under which the United States will impose a 15% tariff on North Macedonian goods, and North Macedonia will eliminate all tariffs on U.S. goods.February 13 – Australian Treasurer Charles Chalmers has appointed Bruce Preston to the Reserve Bank of Australias (RBA) interest rate setting committee, replacing Alison Watkins, whose term is expiring. Preston, currently a professor of economics at the University of New South Wales, previously served as a senior advisor to the RBA and the Treasury. Chalmers stated in a statement on Friday that Prestons five-year term will begin on March 1. This personnel change is closely watched amid heightened uncertainty about the current economic outlook. The appointment comes at a crucial time for the RBA, which has become the first major central bank globally to raise interest rates this year due to persistently strong inflation. This week, Governor Bullock and his deputy Hauser have both expressed a hawkish stance on inflation on various occasions, stating that further policy tightening may be necessary if price pressures prove to be deeply entrenched. For global investors, the addition of a senior academic with experience in central banks and the Treasury signals continuity in technocratic decision-making as Australia navigates external risks from weak productivity, a tight labor market, and broader geopolitical uncertainty.Conflict Situation: 1. Russia—① Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian forces launched a cluster attack on energy facilities used by the Ukrainian armed forces. Between 8:00 AM and 12:00 PM Moscow time, air defense systems intercepted and destroyed 13 Ukrainian-type unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). ② Two sources stated that the Volgograd oil refinery in Russia has ceased oil processing following a drone attack on Wednesday. ③ The governor of Belgorod, Russia, stated that the enemy attack resulted in power outages for over 220,000 people. 2. Ukraine—① The Ukrainian Air Force warned that Russia might launch medium-range ballistic missiles. The mayor of Kyiv stated that 2,600 more buildings in the city lost heating following the Russian attack. ② The Ukrainian military: Attacked the Lukoil oil refinery in the Komi region of Russia, as well as a factory in the Tambov region that produces high-tech aviation and missile equipment. ③ Ukrainian air defense forces: Russian forces launched intensive nighttime strikes on Thursday against major Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Dnipropetrov, damaging some residential buildings; most of the 24 ballistic missiles and 219 drones that attacked were intercepted. ④ Zelensky: Russia launched another large-scale attack on Ukraines energy sector. Last night, 24 ballistic missiles, 1 cruise missile, and more than 200 drones attacked, a significant number of which were successfully shot down. Other developments: 1. Kremlin: The next round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks is expected to be held soon. 2. British Defense Secretary Healy: Has pledged $35 billion in military aid to Ukraine. 3. Ukrainian Defense Minister calls on allies to urgently deploy Patriot PAC-3 missiles from its warehouses for air defense. 4. Secretary of the Ukrainian Security and Defense Council stated that Ukrainian military product manufacturers have obtained the first batch of wartime export licenses. 5. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry: Due to the attacks launched by Russia, the transport of Russian oil to Europe via the "Friendship" pipeline in Ukraine has been suspended since January 27. 6. An internal Russian memo shows that Russia has put forward seven suggestions for economic cooperation with the US to win Trumps support, including returning to the dollar system and joint plans in the energy, mineral, and fossil fuel sectors.Foreign central banks held $14.12 billion in U.S. Treasury securities in the week ending February 13, compared with a previous weeks figure of -$4.002 billion.

Investor attention is on the Fed's minutes as recession fears drive the US Dollar Index towards 107.00

Daniel Rogers

Aug 16, 2022 11:47

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises for a third day in a row during Tuesday's Asian session, gaining bids to 106.58. Thus, the greenback's signal captures the market's rush for risk-free assets in response to worries about the US and China's economies as well as worries about geopolitics in the Middle East, China, and Russia. It is noteworthy that aggressive Fed remarks and weaker US data enhance market trepidation and help DXY bulls.

 

Despite this, the DXY bulls closely monitor the gloomy statistics coming out of China and the US, particularly in light of the recession fears.

 

In August, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index fell from 11.1 in July to 31.3, below market estimates of 8.5. The August NAHB homebuilder confidence index in the US fell from 55 to 49, the lowest level since the start of 2020.

 

In other news, China's retail sales slowed in July to 2.7% YoY from 3.1% earlier and 5.0% forecast, while industrial production (IP) fell to 3.8% from 3.8% previously and 4.0% market estimates. Additionally, in an effort to counter bearishness, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) shocked the markets on Monday by reducing the rates on its medium-term lending facility (MLF) by 10 basis points (bps).

 

It should be emphasized that news stories about deteriorating coronavirus conditions in Shanghai, China's financial center, and the restart of Russian bond trading on Wall Street did not spur investors' desire to take risks. The Wall Street Journal's (WSJ) rumors of a potential meeting between US Vice President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping may also encourage investors to take more risks. In a similar vein, Chinese President Xi proposed new efforts to revive the second-largest economy in the world.

 

The Pentagon said on Monday that the US, South Korea, and Japan took part in a missile warning and ballistic missile search and tracking exercise last week off the coast of Hawaii. Between August 22 and September 1, the US and South Korea will collaborate on military drills. The DXY rises as a result of the additional stress that geopolitical worries place on market sentiment.

 

The three-day downtrend in US 10-year Treasury yields is around 2.775%, while S&P 500 Futures are down at least 0.13 percent day-to-day.

 

Moving on, the secondary US housing and activity data released today should be of interest to DXY traders ahead of the release of the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. The dollar's gauge might remain on the bear's radar if US data keep getting worse.

 

The three-week-old resistance line, which is now support at 106.35, would need to be broken for an extended period of time for DXY bulls to hit the monthly high above 107.00. However, in order to approach July's yearly high close to 109, the bulls need confirmation from late July's peak at 107.45.