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On September 1st, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi responded to the question of long-term interest rates exceeding 3% for the first time in 30 years, stating that economic and fiscal operations "must, of course, be based on an assessment and analysis of various economic conditions, including interest rate trends, and appropriate judgments should be made in a timely manner." Regarding interest rate trends, she only stated, "Making specific comments could have unexpected effects, so I will not comment on that." She explained that interest rate levels are determined by the market, influenced by various factors including the policies of other countries. When asked how to ensure market confidence, she emphasized, "We will appropriately address necessary fiscal needs and effectively achieve a balance between a strong economy and fiscal sustainability." She stated that budget preparation reform will be vigorously promoted in accordance with the "Basic Policy for Economic and Fiscal Operation and Reform" ("Bone and Fiscal Policy") established in July. She called for recurring policy measures to be arranged through an initial budget, rather than relying on large-scale supplementary budgets.According to Japans Kyodo News, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that Japan will achieve strong economic and fiscal sustainability.September 1st - In early September, border troops from China, Russia, and Mongolia will hold the "Border Defense Cooperation-2026" joint exercise. The exercise will focus on preventing and combating reconnaissance and sabotage activities in border areas, and will include joint planning, joint search, joint strikes and arrests, and joint handover drills. This is the second time the three border troops have organized this series of joint training exercises, aiming to further consolidate strategic mutual trust, deepen border defense cooperation, and jointly maintain security and stability in border areas.On September 1st, eToro Global Market Strategist Lale Akoner stated that rising borrowing costs for the UK government have reached multi-year highs, further increasing pressure on UK public finances. She noted that renewed inflation concerns and fiscal uncertainty ahead of the UK budget announcement on October 28th are driving up UK government bond yields, a trend also fueled by generally higher global sovereign bond yields. LSEG data showed that the yield on 30-year UK government bonds rose to 5.904% intraday, its highest level in over 28 years; the yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 5.255%, its highest since 2008. She stated, "Rising yields are beneficial for increasing incomes, but they put pressure on mortgage lending, interest rate-sensitive stocks, and government finances."According to Saudi media Alhadath, Iranian President Pezechzian stated that pressure and threats from the United States have weakened diplomatic efforts.

Investor attention is on the Fed's minutes as recession fears drive the US Dollar Index towards 107.00

Daniel Rogers

Aug 16, 2022 11:47

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises for a third day in a row during Tuesday's Asian session, gaining bids to 106.58. Thus, the greenback's signal captures the market's rush for risk-free assets in response to worries about the US and China's economies as well as worries about geopolitics in the Middle East, China, and Russia. It is noteworthy that aggressive Fed remarks and weaker US data enhance market trepidation and help DXY bulls.

 

Despite this, the DXY bulls closely monitor the gloomy statistics coming out of China and the US, particularly in light of the recession fears.

 

In August, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index fell from 11.1 in July to 31.3, below market estimates of 8.5. The August NAHB homebuilder confidence index in the US fell from 55 to 49, the lowest level since the start of 2020.

 

In other news, China's retail sales slowed in July to 2.7% YoY from 3.1% earlier and 5.0% forecast, while industrial production (IP) fell to 3.8% from 3.8% previously and 4.0% market estimates. Additionally, in an effort to counter bearishness, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) shocked the markets on Monday by reducing the rates on its medium-term lending facility (MLF) by 10 basis points (bps).

 

It should be emphasized that news stories about deteriorating coronavirus conditions in Shanghai, China's financial center, and the restart of Russian bond trading on Wall Street did not spur investors' desire to take risks. The Wall Street Journal's (WSJ) rumors of a potential meeting between US Vice President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping may also encourage investors to take more risks. In a similar vein, Chinese President Xi proposed new efforts to revive the second-largest economy in the world.

 

The Pentagon said on Monday that the US, South Korea, and Japan took part in a missile warning and ballistic missile search and tracking exercise last week off the coast of Hawaii. Between August 22 and September 1, the US and South Korea will collaborate on military drills. The DXY rises as a result of the additional stress that geopolitical worries place on market sentiment.

 

The three-day downtrend in US 10-year Treasury yields is around 2.775%, while S&P 500 Futures are down at least 0.13 percent day-to-day.

 

Moving on, the secondary US housing and activity data released today should be of interest to DXY traders ahead of the release of the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. The dollar's gauge might remain on the bear's radar if US data keep getting worse.

 

The three-week-old resistance line, which is now support at 106.35, would need to be broken for an extended period of time for DXY bulls to hit the monthly high above 107.00. However, in order to approach July's yearly high close to 109, the bulls need confirmation from late July's peak at 107.45.