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On April 2, market research firm Omdia reported that the annual revenue of the semiconductor market surged by about 25% to $683 billion in 2024. This sharp growth was attributed to strong demand for AI-related chips, especially high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI GPUs, which led to an annual growth rate of 74% in the memory field. After a challenging 2023, the rebound in memory helped boost the overall market. However, this record year masked an uneven performance across the industry. The data processing sector grew strongly, while other key sectors such as automotive, consumer and industrial semiconductors saw revenue declines in 2024. These struggles highlight the weak links in the originally booming market.On April 2, DBS published a research report indicating that the restructuring of Agile (03383.HK) is ongoing, and as a valuable overseas asset in which it holds 45% of the shares, A-Life (03319.HK) may be included in the overseas restructuring plan, and part of the outstanding overseas debts may be offset through credit enhancement or debt-to-equity swaps. Therefore, the restructuring of Agile will put pressure on the share price of A-Life in the near future. In addition, there is still uncertainty as to whether the uncollected receivables from third parties and related parties can be recovered. Considering the limited profit prospects, based on the downward revision of revenue and profit margin forecasts, DBS further lowered the profit forecast of A-Life for this year and next year by 21% to 25%, maintaining the hold rating, and the target price was raised from HK$2.6 to HK$3.Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects the yen to climb to the bottom of the 140 range against the dollar this year as unease about U.S. economic growth and trade tariffs boost demand for the safest assets. Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global foreign exchange, interest rates and emerging market strategy at Goldman Sachs, said the yen would provide investors with the best currency hedging tool if the likelihood of a U.S. recession increases. Reaching the 140 level would mean a 7% increase from current levels, and the banks forecast is more optimistic than the median of 145 in the agencys survey of analysts. "The yen tends to perform best when U.S. real interest rates and U.S. stocks fall at the same time," Trivedi said.Hong Kong-listed auto stocks fluctuated upward, with Leapmotor (09863.HK) rising more than 9%, Geely Auto (00175.HK) rising nearly 5%, NIO (09866.HK) and Li Auto (02015.HK) both rising more than 1%.Asian stocks swung on Wednesday, with safe-haven gold hovering near record highs as the world nervously awaited details of Trumps tariff plan and investors worried about the risk of an intensifying global trade war. "We find that our trading environment is volatile, with price swings in the market driven by market participants adjusting their risk exposure on the margins and unwilling to make commitments," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. "Trump called April 2 Liberation Day, but investors are unlikely to be truly free from the uncertainty of tariffs," said Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC Bank in Singapore. "If other countries retaliate, Trump could raise the stakes -- a possibility that could continue to make investors nervous."

Hurdles lie in wait for GBP/USD near 1.1500; focus is on US Retail Sales

Alina Haynes

Sep 15, 2022 11:50

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The GBP/USD pair is slightly higher after bouncing off 1.1526 during the late New York session. The pair is expected to move in a narrow range as investors wait for the release of U.S. Retail Sales data. After re-testing a low of 1.1480 twice on Wednesday, the asset's overall price rose sharply. The market's expectation of an increase in the United Kingdom's inflation rate was disproven, which boosted the bullishness of the pound.

 

United Kingdom headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 9.9%, which was below both the forecast of 10.2% and the prior data of 10.1%. Even though the economy is suffering greatly from skyrocketing energy costs, policymakers at the Bank of England (BOE) are ecstatic by the recent drop in headline CPI. With this negative number, the British economy can finally breathe a sigh of relief. Formerly, market experts estimated that inflation in the pound zone would hit 13%-14%. Therefore, it would be incorrect to identify the situation as a "depletion of pricing pressure."

 

Following a meteoric ascent, the value of the US dollar index (DXY) has leveled off. The market has begun pricing in a 1% rate hike at the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in September, thus the DXY is likely to remain at high levels (Fed). Though it has tightened monetary policy over the previous six months, the Federal Reserve is once again in a neutral position. The Fed has reason to be concerned because the actual reading on core CPI, at 6.3%, was higher than expectations of 6.2%.

 

Data on US retail sales will be the main focus of today's trading session. Preliminary reports indicate there has been no uptick in retail demand. Stagnant consumer demand is a bad sign for the economy since it indicates a decline in consumer confidence.