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On September 18th, CICC Research Report stated that, looking ahead, due to weak employment data, we expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in October. However, rising inflation will raise the bar for rate cuts, limiting the scope for monetary easing. The current crux of the US economy is not insufficient demand, but rising costs. Excessive monetary easing will not only fail to address the employment problem but could also exacerbate inflation, plunging the economy into a quasi-stagflationary situation.Gold prices rose in early Asian trading on September 18th, as the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further, which will enhance the appeal of the non-interest-bearing precious metal. ANZ analysts said in a research note that investors cheered the start of a rate-cutting cycle. However, the analysts added that Fed Chairman Powells remarks were not as dovish as the market expected, which curbed the rise in gold prices.Japans core machinery orders month-on-month rate in July was -4.6%, in line with expectations of -1.70% and the previous value of 3.00%.Japans core machinery orders in July were 4.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations of 5.4% and the previous value of 7.60%.On September 18, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, in response to questions about the central banks statutory requirement to achieve "moderate long-term interest rates" at a press conference following the interest rate decision on Wednesday, explained why the three missions given to the Federal Reserve by Congress can be reduced to two major tasks in practice. Central bank officials have long positioned their mission as a dual task, with monetary policy focusing on keeping inflation low and stable and ensuring a continued strong job market, with little emphasis on the third task. Powell told reporters that the third task is real, but in the eyes of central bankers, it is a derivative of the two more well-known goals stipulated by law. He said: "We believe that moderate long-term interest rates are the result of achieving low and stable inflation and maximum employment." For some time, Federal Reserve officials did not believe that the third task required "independent action."

GBP/JPY slips below 165 as BOJ prepared to act; UK retail sales are scrutinised

Alina Haynes

Sep 15, 2022 11:46

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The GBP/JPY pair dropped below the crucial support level of 165 during the Asian session. The asset is falling precipitously now that the Wednesday buffer of 166.00 has been lost. The cross has developed a trading range between 164.80 and 165.87, and it is more likely than not that it will break to the downside and drop below 164.00.

 

The fall in the headline UK inflation numbers did not produce any gains for the pound bulls. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year came in at 9.9%, which was less than both the predicted value of 10.2% and the preceding reading of 10.1%. The economy is no longer facing double-digit inflation, despite the fact that the current inflation rate of 9.9 percent is still relatively high, despite rising energy prices. But at 6.3%, the core CPI remained in line with forecasts.

 

Given that lower readings are not a permanent trend, it would be premature to declare an end to pricing pressures. Inflationary pressures will continue to rise as a result of Liz Truss, the new prime minister of the United Kingdom, introducing stimulus plans to shield people from rising energy prices and cut back on tax rates.

 

The UK Retail Sales numbers will be the topic of discussion on Friday. Compared to the 3.4% recorded earlier, the economic data are predicted to show a 4.2% annual loss. In addition, instead of the 0.3% increase previously indicated, the monthly figure will fall by 0.5%.

 

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has vowed to interfere in the foreign exchange market to support the domestic currency, which has given the yen bulls a boost. Nikkei reported on Thursday that the BOJ carried out a foreign exchange "check" to find out how much market participants value the JPY. The news source claims that this is proof that the BOJ might be getting ready to intervene in the market.