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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Gold recovers to $1,800 level as WTI dips $2.0 but is still expected to end the week higher

Daniel Rogers

Aug 15, 2022 14:58

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The front-month futures contracts for West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, the US benchmark for sweet light crude oil, dropped little more than $2.0 on Friday to just below the $92 per barrel level. A damaged oil pipeline that had halted output at seven offshore oil rigs in the US Gulf of Mexico was being closely followed by traders.

 

Despite rumors that as much as 410,000 barrels per day of supply had been cut off on Thursday, reports on Friday stated that the pipeline is anticipated to be mended by Friday's end of the day, allowing for a return to business as usual. WTI is expected to conclude the week over $3.0 in the black despite Friday's decline, but technicians still believe it is in a downturn that may push prices as low as the mid-$80s per barrel.

 

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This week's conflicting signals regarding the future for oil demand have been a challenge for oil traders. For instance, the US oil inventory data for this week was peculiar, showing a huge, unexpected increase in headline stockpiles (bearish), but a significant decrease in gasoline stocks (bullish). In the meantime, the International Energy Agency this week revised its prediction for the growth of oil consumption in 2022, citing rising demand for oil amid "switching" away from gas as costs rise. In the meantime, OPEC revised its projection for 2022 demand growth in its monthly report, which was also released this week.

 

Copper prices fell on Friday as a strengthening US dollar rendered the red metal priced in USD more expensive for foreign purchasers. Last time, copper was down approximately 0.4% and back under $3.70. Data from China released on Friday revealed that the country's loan growth in July was substantially lower than anticipated, which also affected the industrial metals market's mood to some extent. The largest copper consumer in the world is unquestionably China.

 

However, copper prices are still expected to have increased by more than 3.5% this week, bringing their gains since their mid-July lows under $3.15 to almost 18%. Although recent economic data from China has been spotty at best, government initiatives to revive the economy have boosted confidence in the industrial metal market. The copper market has also received attention, with key manufacturers recently revising lower their output predictions and stocks in significant Chinese/London warehouses under pressure.

 

On Friday, despite the stronger US dollar, gold prices rose again to the $1,800 per troy ounce level. The adverse US inflation shocks over the past few days have diminished concerns that the Fed would need to raise rates aggressively in the coming quarters, which would likely be bad for the precious metal. As a result, the precious metal seems set to close the week about 1.4% higher.