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September 1st - Data from the National Association of Home Mortgage Borrowers (NAM) shows that UK house prices rose in August, indicating that housing demand remains resilient despite the economic impact of the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. The average UK house price rose 0.2% in August to £275,465, reversing a revised 0.1% decline in the previous month. Augusts price performance was slightly better than economists expectations of a 0.1% increase. This data suggests that the UK housing market may be weathering the impact of the Middle East conflict. Ample household savings and Prime Minister Andy Burnhams cost-of-living measures are helping to maintain housing demand. However, energy costs remain high, and house prices have fallen in two of the past four months. Overall economic sentiment in the UK may deteriorate further. The Iranian energy shock has dampened market hopes for interest rate cuts, with traders now expecting the Bank of England to raise rates by 25 basis points by the end of the year. Meanwhile, speculation surrounding potential tax increases in the new Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healys first budget could further dampen the willingness of potential homebuyers.The UKs Nationwide house price index rose 0.2% month-on-month in August, below the expected 0.10% and the previous reading revised from 0.10% to -0.1%.The UKs Nationwide house price index rose 1.6% year-on-year in August, below the expected 2% and the previous reading revised from 1.80% to 1.4%.Germanys real retail sales fell 3.4% month-on-month in July, compared with an expected 0.4% and a previous reading of -0.7%.Germanys real retail sales fell 2.5% year-on-year in July, compared with a previous reading of -0.2%.

Forecast for Gold: XAUUSD retreats from $1800 on rising US yields

Daniel Rogers

Aug 12, 2022 11:59

 截屏2022-06-07 下午5.14.22.png

 

While it had been trending upwards, gold's daily performance took a sour turn and it is now trading below $1800. During the American session, the XAUUSD reached a high of $1799 before turning down and heading below $1785.

 

Despite predictions of a 0.2% monthly increase, data released on Thursday indicated that the US Producer Price Index decreased by 0.5% in July, bringing the annual rate down to 9.8%. The Consumer Price Index did not move in July, contrary to predictions of a 0.2% increase, according to data released on Wednesday. The US currency fell because of the inflation rate going down.

 

Investors continue to count on a rate hike of 50 basis points or more from the Federal Reserve at their September meeting. U.S. rates have risen despite though a peak in US inflation is more likely, which is surprising. Both the US 10-year yield (now at 2.83%) and the 2-year yield (3.20%) are at their highest levels in nearly a week.

 

Increased US yields capped gold's gains. The inability of the XAU/USD pair to maintain a price over $1800 despite the recent US data has fueled skepticism that the rally will continue. Weekly support is found around $1774, and the immediate support is at $1785. Additional gains appear likely if the price of gold can consolidate over $1800.


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