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On May 9, Nomura issued a report stating that Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) reiterated its neutral rating and raised its target price by 116% from HK$16.4 to HK$35.4 due to strong local demand. However, although the groups pricing conditions have improved, the fixed cost burden may still exist, so the neutral rating is maintained. The report stated that Hua Hong Groups first-quarter revenue was in line with its guidance target, and the gross profit margin of 9.2% was lower than expected. Nomura believed that this may be due to the depreciation of the new plant. Due to the continued demand momentum, management predicts that the second-quarter revenue will increase by 3.5% quarter-on-quarter. Although Hua Hong Semiconductor believes that the price of 8-inch wafer foundry is under pressure (no price reduction yet), due to the shortage of supply, the price of 12-inch wafer foundry is expected to continue to rise. Nomura also believes that this is a good sign for the overall price dynamics of mature node wafer foundry in Asia.On May 9, Swedens Nordic Bank pointed out that the Federal Reserve is waiting for more clarity as risks rise. Both trade policy and the economic outlook are seen as extremely uncertain, and the Federal Reserve wants to wait for clearer results. The market interpreted this information as slightly hawkish and further reduced the possibility of a rate cut at the June meeting. We agree with this change in the market, but expect the Federal Reserve to ultimately focus on supporting economic growth and ignore the temporary rise in inflation. If long-term inflation expectations remain within a controllable range and consistent with the inflation target, the Federal Reserve should be able to ignore the temporary inflation shock caused by tariffs. There is also a possibility that the short-term impact of tariff uncertainty on the economy will be greater than currently expected. But for now, the Federal Reserve believes that the move will have limited impact on the economy, and there are some signs of progress in trade negotiations. Inflation is still above target and is expected to start rising again due to tariffs.Commerzbank plans to apply to the European Central Bank and German financial institutions for the next round of share buybacks at the beginning of the third quarter.Japans preliminary synchronized index for March was 116, expected to be 115.9, and the previous value was 117.3.Japans preliminary leading index for March was 107.7, expected to be 107.5, and the previous value was 107.9.

Gold Prices Inch up But Anticipate A Weekly Loss; PCE Data Are Awaited

Skylar Williams

Feb 24, 2023 13:34

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Gold prices rose marginally on Friday, but were poised for a fourth consecutive week in the red due to mounting uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy, with markets awaiting a reading on the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge later in the day for additional direction.


As U.S. fourth-quarter GDP data was revised slightly lower, indicating that the economy had cooled more than anticipated under the burden of high interest rates, gold experienced some respite. The data increased the likelihood that the Fed will have less capacity to continue raising interest rates.


At 19:36 E.T., spot gold climbed 0.1% to $1,823.84 per ounce, while gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,835.15 per ounce. This week, both assets were expected to lose between 0.5% and 0.8%.


The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, is anticipated to confirm that price pressures remained elevated in January. Inflation control is the central bank's top priority, and the Fed has given few hints that it will halt its rate-hiking rampage. Given that rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as precious metals, this is unfavorable for gold.


This week, a number of Fed speakers advocated for additional interest rate hikes, with some even advocating for a quicker pace of hikes in the future months. The minutes of the Fed's February meeting revealed that the majority of officials supported an increase in interest rates.


However, markets continue to be dubious as to where interest rates will peak. Traders' dread of a higher-than-anticipated terminal rate has limited the metals' price appreciation.


Friday was a quiet day for other precious metals, with silver and platinum futures moving less than 0.1% in either direction. However, platinum was expected to outpace its competitors this week with a nearly 3% increase, ending a six-week losing streak.


Copper prices stabilized on Friday after plunging in the previous session in response to weak U.S. GDP data that prompted concerns about a slowdown in industrial activity.


Copper futures increased 0.1% to $4.0570 per pound following a 3.3% decline in the previous session. The losses also placed copper on track for a 1.3% weekly decline.


In recent weeks, copper prices have also been impacted by uncertainty regarding China's economic recovery, the world's largest copper importer.