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Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD treads water below $1,700 due to pre-Fed jitters

Alina Haynes

Sep 20, 2022 14:34

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During Tuesday's early European morning, the gold price (XAU/USD) trades near $1,676 as it attempts to preserve Friday's rebound from the two-year low. In doing so, the bullion reflects the market's uneasiness preceding significant central bank statements, as well as trade and geopolitical concerns emerging from Russia and China.


Fears that the US dollar has already priced in the Fed's 0.75 percentage point rate hike and that there is no more room for the greenback to appreciate have recently impacted on the US currency. There may be a connection between the dismal US housing data and inflationary expectations and the anxieties.


The US NAHB Housing Market Index decreased for the ninth straight month to 46, compared to 48 anticipated and 49 previously. In spite of this, US inflation expectations, as measured by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) statistics, fell for the third consecutive day to a two-month low near 2.34 percent by the end of the North American trading session on Monday. Moreover, according to FRED statistics, the 5-year breakeven inflation rate plummeted to its lowest level since September 2021, at 2.44 percent. Concerns were raised regarding the market's unexpected reaction to the Fed's hawkish wagers.


On the other hand, the European Commission's willingness to use emergency power to prevent a supply crisis seems to have combined with hawkish statements from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers to support the XAU/USD upward via a weaker USD. In addition, the relative quiet surrounding the US-China conflict over Taiwan and China's covid unlocks is beneficial for metal prices.


Nonetheless, multi-day high yields and general forecasts of increased interest rates in the face of economic slowdown worries appear to put the gold price under pressure. In addition, the news that the holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund in the world, fell to 30,799,131 ounces on Monday, the lowest level since March 2020, adds to the negative catalysts for XAU/USD traders.


However, the second-tier US housing data may provide timely guidance prior to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Given the Fed's heightened expectations, any disappointment will not be taken lightly and may offer the XAU/USD with the much-needed boost from its yearly low.