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DownDetector, a network monitoring website, reports user complaints that social media platform “X” is experiencing issues.January 24th - The market is widely focused on when the window for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts will open. Ming Ming, chief economist at CITIC Securities, stated that based on past experience, a reduction in the relending rate opens up corresponding room for overall interest rate cuts. With a large number of fixed deposits maturing in the first quarter, the pressure on bank interest rate spreads is easing, and the timing of a policy rate cut is expected in the second quarter. "A RRR cut is expected to be implemented in the first quarter, but a comprehensive interest rate cut still needs to wait," analyzed a research report from Galaxy Securities. The report suggests that with fiscal policy taking the lead and monetary policy actively cooperating with fiscal policy, a 50 basis point RRR cut is likely to be implemented. A comprehensive interest rate cut still needs to wait for the right opportunity; it is expected that there will be one to two interest rate cuts throughout the year, totaling a reduction of 10 to 20 basis points in the policy rate, thereby guiding the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) downward, which will then be transmitted to further reduce loan and deposit rates.On January 24th, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on the 23rd that US President Donald Trumps remarks about NATO allies not being on the front lines in the Afghan war were "insulting and shocking," and that Trump should apologize. In an interview in Davos, Switzerland, Trump claimed that the US "never needed" NATO, and that NATO allies "would say they sent troops to Afghanistan…they did, but in a slightly back position, a bit off the front lines." Starmer said Trumps remarks deeply hurt the families of British casualties, adding, "If I had said those things, I would certainly apologize." Earlier that day, the British Prime Ministers office issued a statement saying that British troops have been fighting alongside US troops, and that Trump "wrongly" downplayed the role of NATO forces, including British troops, in the Afghan war.Conflict Status: 1. Russian Ministry of Defense: Troops have occupied Simenivka in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian military: Attacked a Russian oil depot in the Penza region. 3. Market news: A Russian drone attacked a civilian vehicle in the Kharkiv region, killing two people. Peace Talks: 1. Delegations from Russia, the US, and Ukraine will continue talks in Abu Dhabi on the 24th. 2. Zelensky: The focus of the trilateral talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine is on specific conditions for ending the conflict. Other Developments: 1. Five deputy ministers of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense have been dismissed. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: Discussed the issue of "free economic zones" with Trump. 3. Ukrainian President Zelensky: Ukraine will push for permission to use all frozen Russian assets. 4. Kremlin: The total amount of Russian sovereign assets frozen in the US is slightly less than $5 billion. 5. Ukraine stated that the US will provide $400 million in humanitarian aid for the energy sector. 6. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy: Has discussed with US President Trump additional missiles for air defense, PAC-3, and anti-missile systems, and hopes for positive results. 7. According to Politico: The EU and the US are exploring an $800 billion fund for Ukraines post-war reconstruction. The US and EU are discussing a 10-year "prosperity plan" for Ukraine, which explicitly includes a path to Ukraines EU membership. 8. According to Politico: US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll has arrived in the UAE to meet with US Middle East envoy Witkov and Trumps son-in-law Jared Kushner.January 24 - According to the China Coast Guard, on January 23, the China Coast Guard continued its search and rescue operation for crew members of a capsized foreign cargo ship near Huangyan Island. As of now, four crew members remain missing. The China Coast Guard vessels Dongsha and Sanmen, together with the Philippine Coast Guard vessel 9701, which arrived at the scene that evening, are conducting search and rescue operations in designated areas.

WTI bulls enter at critical support and eye the Federal Reserve

Daniel Rogers

Sep 20, 2022 14:31

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West Texas Intermediate is currently up 0.11 percent on the day and has traded between $82.11 and $86.21 bbls. The black gold was reversing early offers that led to the lows even as US dollar bulls came in as markets awaited the Federal Reserve and a multitude of other central banks this week.

 

Fed funds futures have priced in a 79% chance of a 75-basis-point rate hike this week and a 21% chance of a 100-basis-point boost at the conclusion of the two-day Fed policy meeting. Nonetheless, some analysts predict that the central bank could move to increase interest rates by a full percentage point after August inflation exceeded expectations. The DXY index indicates that the demand for safe haven assets, such as the U.S. dollar, is close to its 20-year high. As a result, the demand for oil may decrease, and the dollar's demand as a safe haven asset nears a 20-year high.

 

Nonetheless, China eased a two-week lockdown on the 21 million residents of Chengdu, restoring normal activity to the capital of Sichuan, which may have contributed to the increase in oil prices at the beginning of the week. The Department of Energy said on Monday that the United States will sell 10 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserve for delivery in November.

 

"The markets are increasingly pessimistic about the likelihood of a rapid resolution to the Iran issue, which has resulted in a revival in energy supply risks despite the continuous decline in prices. As markets reprice supply risk premiums, the lack of liquidity might amplify crude's upward volatility, according to TD Securities analysts.