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Japans core CPI annual rate in September was 2.9%, in line with expectations of 2.90% and the previous value of 2.70%.1. All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.31%, the S&P 500 up 0.58%, and the Nasdaq up 0.89%. Honeywell International rose over 6%, and 3M Company rose over 2%, leading the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher. The Wind US Tech 7 Index rose 0.7%, with Tesla up over 2% and Amazon up over 1%. Most Chinese concept stocks rose, with Tiger Brokers up nearly 6% and Hesai Technology up nearly 4%. 2. The three major European stock indices closed slightly higher, with Germanys DAX up 0.23%, Frances CAC 40 up 0.23%, and the UKs FTSE 100 up 0.67%, hitting a record high. European stocks were driven by strong performance in energy stocks, as U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants pushed up oil prices, leading to gains for stocks like Shell. The UKs FTSE 100 hit a record high, benefiting from growing expectations of interest rate cuts and a rebound in bank stocks. 3. U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 4.82 basis points to 3.489%, the 3-year Treasury yield up 5.84 basis points to 3.497%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 5.90 basis points to 3.605%, the 10-year Treasury yield up 5.35 basis points to 4.001%, and the 30-year Treasury yield up 4.90 basis points to 4.578%. 4. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 1.91% to $4,143.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.03% to $48.65 per ounce. 5. The main U.S. oil contract closed up 5.56% at $61.75 per barrel, while the main Brent crude oil contract rose 5.38% to $65.96 per barrel. 6. Most of the base metals in London rose, with LME aluminum futures up 2.07% to $2,865.00/ton, LME copper futures up 1.44% to $10,817.00/ton, LME nickel futures up 1.13% to $15,335.00/ton, LME lead futures up 1.08% to $2,012.00/ton, LME tin futures up 1.02% to $35,725.00/ton and LME zinc futures down 0.21% to $3,022.50/ton.On October 24th, German Chancellor Angela Merz expressed optimism that the United States would grant an exemption to the German subsidiary of Russian oil company Rosneft. The chancellor added that it was unclear whether the German subsidiary "needed" an exemption, as sanctions require Rosneft to own at least 50% of the business. "It currently owns exactly 50% of the subsidiary," he said. There are concerns that Rosnefts German subsidiary could be cut off from business by major clients if it does not receive a waiver from US sanctions. Oil traders, banks, and oil companies have already threatened to terminate their partnerships with the company.Japans September core CPI annual rate will be released in ten minutes.On October 24th, UK consumer confidence recorded a reading of -17, climbing to its highest level since August 2024, driven primarily by consumers taking advantage of promotions from Amazon and other major retailers. Neil Bellamy, consumer director at GfK, said: "This rise was partly driven by promotions from major retailers. After years of high inflation, savvy consumers have adjusted their purchasing strategies to maximize their money. The rebound in overall confidence masked growing anxiety about personal finances. While households assessment of the overall economic situation improved, their outlook for their own finances over the coming year deteriorated." Analyst Eamonn Sheridan said the report undermined optimism about a strong recovery in the retail sector and could continue to put pressure on the pound as it reinforces the view that households are preparing for financial tightening, which could curb consumption even during the upcoming crucial Black Friday shopping season.

WTI bulls enter at critical support and eye the Federal Reserve

Daniel Rogers

Sep 20, 2022 14:31

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West Texas Intermediate is currently up 0.11 percent on the day and has traded between $82.11 and $86.21 bbls. The black gold was reversing early offers that led to the lows even as US dollar bulls came in as markets awaited the Federal Reserve and a multitude of other central banks this week.

 

Fed funds futures have priced in a 79% chance of a 75-basis-point rate hike this week and a 21% chance of a 100-basis-point boost at the conclusion of the two-day Fed policy meeting. Nonetheless, some analysts predict that the central bank could move to increase interest rates by a full percentage point after August inflation exceeded expectations. The DXY index indicates that the demand for safe haven assets, such as the U.S. dollar, is close to its 20-year high. As a result, the demand for oil may decrease, and the dollar's demand as a safe haven asset nears a 20-year high.

 

Nonetheless, China eased a two-week lockdown on the 21 million residents of Chengdu, restoring normal activity to the capital of Sichuan, which may have contributed to the increase in oil prices at the beginning of the week. The Department of Energy said on Monday that the United States will sell 10 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserve for delivery in November.

 

"The markets are increasingly pessimistic about the likelihood of a rapid resolution to the Iran issue, which has resulted in a revival in energy supply risks despite the continuous decline in prices. As markets reprice supply risk premiums, the lack of liquidity might amplify crude's upward volatility, according to TD Securities analysts.