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Morgan Stanley: It is currently expected that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in 2025, while it was previously expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June.Crude oil futures are erasing gains from recent weeks as the rollout of Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” looks worse than many expected, raising concerns that it will slow the global economy and oil demand. “U.S. consumers are in a tough spot, and overseas manufacturers are in the same boat, which is bad for demand in an already troubled environment,” TP ICAP’s Scott Shelton said in a report.U.S. imports in February were $401.1 billion, compared with $401.2 billion in the previous month.U.S. exports in February were $278.5 billion, compared with $269.8 billion in the previous month.On April 3, Melanie Debono, a macro analyst at Panson, said that Switzerlands future inflation trend may depend on the countrys retaliatory measures against US tariffs. The Trump administration imposes a uniform tariff of 31% on all goods imported from Switzerland, which will have a suppressive effect on inflation if it seriously affects economic growth by hitting exports and investment. The United States may still impose tariffs on Switzerlands main export products, medicines, but so far, the United States has not imposed tariffs on Swiss medicines. But Debono pointed out that a major retaliation from Switzerland would mean that imported inflation would rise more than currently expected. Switzerland currently does not impose tariffs on manufactured goods, so the United States does not either. The United States reciprocal tariffs are partly because it believes that Switzerland is a currency manipulator.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD tests $1,880 as the US Dollar retreats in advance of Fed Chair Powell's speech

Daniel Rogers

Feb 07, 2023 15:38

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During early Tuesday trading, the gold price (XAU/USD) gains bids to retest the intraday high near $1,876 while printing a two-day rise.

 

In doing so, the precious metal extends its recovery from a monthly low at the start of the week, as the US Dollar's weakness combines with cautious optimism in the market to favor XAU/USD bulls. However, apprehension in front of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and US President Joe Biden's State of the Union (SOTU) remarks appears to be challenging metal buyers recently.

 

The modestly optimistic feeling could be attributed to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and President Joe Biden's remarks that pushed back US recession fears. In a similar vein, US President Joe Biden's remarks that "the balloon incident did not damage US-China relations" appeared to allay Sino-American concerns.

 

On the other hand, hawkish Fed comments appear to support US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. In an interview with Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic stated, "The robust job market presumably suggests 'we have a bit more work to do.'" Notably, the stronger US jobs report and activity statistics for January rekindled the Fed's hawkish stance last Friday, but a lack of directions appeared to test the USD bulls subsequently.

 

In this environment, S&P 500 Futures post modest gains, as US Treasury bond rates struggle to extend their two-day recovery from the monthly low. Observe that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has likewise retreated from the one-month peak it reached the day before amid lackluster market conditions.

 

Gold traders should focus on Fed Chair Powell's ability to compliment the most recent good US data as well as US President Biden's State of the Union address.