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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD rises on Powell's dovish speech

Daniel Rogers

Dec 01, 2022 14:59

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The price of gold is increasing as a result of Jerome Powell's dovish speech on Wednesday, which weakened the US Dollar. At the time of writing, the Gold price is up approximately 0.6% and has risen from a low of $1,744.95 to a daily high of $1,765.

 

Earlier in the day, the price of gold reduced gains as US bond yields rose in anticipation of a highly anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell stated, however, that policy will likely need to stay tight for some time and that it makes sense to slow the rate of interest rate hikes. The time to reduce the pace of rate hikes could arrive as early as the December meeting, according to him.

 

As a result, the gold price is on course for its best month since May 2021, thanks to the dollar's decline. Last observed, the US dollar index, DXY, was down 0.5% to 106.29, while the yield on the US 10-year note was down to 3.694%, not far from the November 28th low of 3.62%. The greenback is poised for its largest monthly loss since September 2010 as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve to reach its target interest rate in the first quarter of 2019. After four consecutive 75 bps rate hikes, the markets are now pricing in a 75% possibility of a lower 50 bps boost in December.

 

Moreover, evidence revealed that the labor market began to cool. In October, the number of job opportunities in the United States decreased to 10.3 million. The number of hiring and total separations remained relatively stable at 6 million and 5.7 million, respectively. "Job vacancies have decreased from their peak of just under 12 million in March, but with 1.7 job postings per unemployed person in the United States, the gap between labor demand and supply remains considerable," ANZ Bank analysts explained.

 

TD Securities analysts contend that a bull trap is being set in precious metals markets. "Over the past few days, systematic trend followers have substantially covered their gold shorts, while the strong price action has likely continued to draw additional long interest from discretionary money managers seeking a recession hedge amid peak central bank hawkishness."

 

"However," stated the analysts, "narrative is chasing prices, and we see many events on the docket that could spark a renewed leg lower as CTAs run out of dry powder on the bid. Alongside inflation and employment data, Chair Powell's speech is a prime possibility for a catalyst.

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