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February 25th - Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani announced on Tuesday that oil exports from the Kurdistan region are between 200,000 and 210,000 barrels per day, and Iraq is gradually approaching its export target. He added that Iraqi oil exports have reached "more than 3.4 million barrels per day," and efforts are currently underway to increase exports to "more than 3.45 million barrels per day." Iraqi law stipulates that approximately 3.5 million barrels of oil must be exported daily to meet government revenue targets.February 25th - A senior finance official in Zambia, Africas second-largest copper producer, stated that the country will utilize higher-than-expected mining revenues to launch a stabilization fund this year to ensure the government has a buffer in case the copper price surge subsides. Zambian Finance Minister Felix Nkulukusa called this mechanism an "emergency fund," and the government will complete the framework for the fund this year, after which surplus funds can be deposited. He stated that this will allow Zambia to smoothly complete its budget preparation when facing challenges in pricing and budgets. Previously, with soaring global copper demand and increased domestic copper production, Zambias economy experienced a strong recovery, its currency performed best against the US dollar globally, foreign investors flocked to its government bond market, and its stock market index ranked among the top four globally in terms of gains over the past 12 months.Iraqi Oil Minister: The West Qurna 2 oil field in Iraq currently produces 450,000 barrels per day. After Chevron takes over the oil field, the daily production is expected to reach 750,000 to 800,000 barrels.February 25th Futures News: 1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 816,375 lots, an increase of 139,515 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 2,104,501 lots, an increase of 34,417 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 175,108 lots, an increase of 42,587 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 267,320 lots, a decrease of 2,583 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 492,310 lots, an increase of 94,425 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,625,540 lots, an increase of 26,493 lots from the previous trading day.On February 25th, former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated that given the already strong economic situation, it is necessary to continue raising interest rates and tightening fiscal policy. He warned that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis massive spending plan could trigger overheated inflation. Kuroda is known for his aggressive monetary stimulus policy launched in 2013, a key component of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abes "Abenomics" reflation strategy. He stated that with robust economic growth and steady wage increases, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates approximately twice a year in 2026 and 2027. "Today, Japan faces inflation and a depreciating yen. Japan needs to shift to tighter fiscal and monetary policies. The Bank of Japan must gradually raise interest rates to a neutral level. Fiscal policy must also be tightened. I have doubts about whether increasing spending and tax cuts are appropriate." Kuroda warned that expansionary fiscal policy could backfire, exacerbating inflationary pressures and pushing up bond yields.

Gold Price Prediction: The XAU/USD pair flirts with a two-week high below $1,800 ahead of US PCE Inflation

Alina Haynes

Dec 01, 2022 15:03

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Gold price (XAU/USD) oscillates near a two-week high in the vicinity of $1,780 on Thursday morning as buyers await critical US inflation data. Consequently, during the three-day upswing, the price of bullion advances to within a few minutes of the previous multi-day high.

 

Notably, dovish statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, particularly Chairman Jerome Powell, combined with weaker US employment-related data to drive the Gold price higher the day before. In the same vein, the virus-driven activity limitations in China have loosened as the dragon kingdom reported three consecutive days of dropping daily infections after setting a new record high.

 

However, a recent increase in US inflation expectations, as indicated by the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, should have also investigated the metal's recent upward movement. Additionally challenging the XAU/USD bulls could be Jake Sullivan's pessimistic views, which signal that the Sino-American optimists face new obstacles. "The United States views China as a growing strategic danger," the official stated.

 

As a reflection of the market's sentiment, S&P 500 Futures post modest gains, while Asia-Pacific equities follow Wall Street's upward trend. In addition, US 10-year Treasury bond yields continue under pressure around 3.62 percent a day after hitting a two-month low.

 

Janet Yellen, secretary of the US Treasury, has stated that the US economy will likely be able to accomplish a so-called "soft landing," in which inflation decreases without triggering a severe recession. Gold buyers remain optimistic as they await the Fed's favored inflation indicator, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for October, which is anticipated to be 5.0% YoY versus 5.1% before.

 

In addition, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November, which is anticipated to be 49.8 compared to 50.2 in October, as well as news about China and comments from the Fed's second-tier policymakers will be crucial.

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