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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD clings to 29-month low near $1,650; Ukraine, Fed's Powell in spotlight

Daniel Rogers

Sep 26, 2022 12:01

Gold price (XAU/USD) licks its wounds around a two-year bottom, at $1,645 during Monday's Asian session, as bears take a breather following the week's largest daily decline ahead of important catalysts. The contradictory news regarding Europe and Russia may further put pressure on metal prices. Despite this, bears remain optimistic despite the widespread rush to endanger safety.

 

Germany's ability to secure a gas contract with Abu Dhabi, as well as Russia's lack of rapid response to Group of Seven (G7) chatter about mustering guts against Moscow, indicated a correction in mood. Recently, a holiday in New Zealand and a light calendar in Asia allowed the XAU/USD bears to catch their breath.

 

During the past week, the gold price was pushed down by high US PMIs, weak activity data from the bloc, Russia's stern warning to the West, and the Group of Seven's (G7) readiness to respond with penalties. In addition, the XAU/USD was pulled down by hawkish central bankers and fears of recession.

 

Nonetheless, the initial readings of the S&P Global PMI for the month of September indicated that the European economy contracted significantly, hampered by rising energy prices. The German Services PMI reached its lowest level in two years, while its European counterpart reached its lowest level in 19 months. In addition, Manufacturing PMIs reached their lowest level in twenty months. In September, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.8 from 51.5, and the US S&P Global Services PMI improved from 44.6 to 49.0.

 

Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, stated elsewhere on Friday, "We are committed to deploying our tools." Following him, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard stated that 'hard' inflation is impacting low-income people. Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, told CBS' "Face the Nation" over the weekend that he still believes the central bank can reduce inflation without substantial job losses, given the economy's sustained pace, as reported by Reuters, citing the Fed official's interview.

 

According to a recent CBS interview, Ukraine's president Zelenskiy stated that "Putin's nuclear threats may have been a bluff, but now they might become a reality." The United States, meanwhile, warned of "catastrophic repercussions" if Moscow used nuclear weapons in Ukraine, after Russia's foreign minister stated that territories hosting heavily condemned referendums would receive full security if annexed by Moscow.

 

Wall Street closed in the red, US Treasury yields increased, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) reached a new multi-year high against this backdrop. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures record modest losses at the latest.

 

Intraday movements will be heavily influenced by Italy's election results and a statement by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. Nonetheless, the week will be dominated by the Ukraine-Russia conflict, comments from Fed Chair Powell, and US Durable Goods Orders for direction.


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