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WTI prices fall to eight-month lows, falling below $80 per barrel

Alina Haynes

Sep 26, 2022 11:27

截屏2022-09-22 下午4.35.20_1024x576.png 

 

The benchmark for US crude oil, generally known as WTI, falls below $80.00 per barrel on Friday due to a strengthening US Dollar, with the US Dollar Index surging to levels not seen since May 2002, a headwind for commodities priced in US dollars. After reaching a day high of $83.90, WTI is currently trading at $78.80, over 6% less than its opening price.

 

WTI is already down 8% this week, extending its drop to a fourth straight week. Wednesday's decision by the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and underline the need for additional hikes is dragging on the price of black gold. This, coupled with a flurry of other central banks raising rates, heightened global recession concerns. Consequently, oil demand would decline.

 

According to sources cited by Reuters, "The crude market is under intense selling pressure as the U.S. dollar maintains a solid upward trajectory and risk appetite decreases."

 

In the interim, mood deteriorated, which strengthened the dollar. US stocks are down between 2.13 percent and 3.44 percent, extending their weekly losses. In contrast, the US Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar's value relative to a basket of peers, is increasing 1.39 percent to 112.808, marking a return to 20-year highs.

 

A slew of S&P Global PMIs that were released during the day added to recessionary fears. The PMIs for the United Kingdom and the euro area were below expectations and poised to enter a recession, with the majority of indices residing in contractionary zone. In contrast, the US PMIs were mixed, but all three components increased, maintaining optimism that the US economy will avoid a recession.

 

Moreover, according to a US official, the Iran nuclear deal has stalled due to Tehran's insistence on the conclusion of UN nuclear watchdog investigations.

 

On the daily WTI chart, the oil price has fallen below the bottom trendline of a falling wedge, which is typically a bullish sign. Consequently, US crude oil may be set for a retest of the January 1 and YTD low of $65.94. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in negative area at 33.25, it is not in oversold territory. A decline below $75.00 might therefore pave the road to $70 per barrel and $65.94.


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