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June 24th - The dollar hit its highest level since November on Tuesday as traders solidified their view that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates this year. The Feds policy outlook contrasts with that of other central banks globally. Traders now expect nearly two 25-basis-point rate hikes in the US by early 2027. "The dollar has room to rise; it tends to strengthen before a Fed rate hike; the market is currently speculating that the rate hike cycle may begin in September," said Jordan Rochester, a strategist at Mizuho International. Meanwhile, the euro fell to its lowest point in a year after comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde prompted traders to reduce their bets on rate hikes in the region. The yen continued to be pressured as markets perceived the Bank of Japans rate hikes as insufficient to curb the yens decline, keeping traders wary of potential foreign exchange intervention.Traders said the Argentine interbank peso closed down 0.61% at 1,471.5 pesos to the dollar, its lowest level in eight months.According to the Financial Times, SpaceXs (SPCX.O) $25 billion bond issuance attracted nearly $90 billion in subscription orders around noon local time.A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that only 23% of Americans believe the postwar relationship between the United States and Iran is stronger, while 35% believe it is more fragile.A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that 52% of Americans believe the Iran issue is not worth the price to pay, while 24% believe it is.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD bears at $1,650 on Fed hawkishness and China news

Daniel Rogers

Sep 19, 2022 14:34

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During early Monday morning in Europe, the gold price (XAU/USD) maintains a position close to the intraday low at $1,670. In doing so, metal prices endure the weight of a stronger U.S. dollar amidst a sluggish session caused by Japanese and British vacations. The cause may be related to the Fed's hawkish bets and China-related news stories.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a two-day slump while posting intraday gains of 0.18 percent at 109.85 as of press time. Indicators of the U.S. dollar's value versus the six major currencies have recently been buoyed by the University of Michigan's September consumer sentiment report and the market's positive expectations on the Fed's next move. Consequently, the probability of a 75-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve increased to 80%, while the market's estimates of a one-percentage-point increase in the Fed rate rose to 20% at the latest.

 

US President Biden stated elsewhere, "I'm more positive than I've been in a long time." The national leader also claimed that inflation will be brought under control. On the same line are the covid updates from China, which have unlocked Dalian and Chengdu while observing zero coronavirus cases in Beijing and one, as opposed to zero the day before, outside of Shanghai's quarantine zone. However, US President Biden's willingness to support Taiwan in the event that China assaults Taiwan and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve appear to weigh on the steel price ahead of the major monetary policy pronouncements.

 

In addition, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) reduces the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 2.15 percent. "With no maturing reverse repos on Monday, the Chinese central bank injects 12 billion yuan," reports Reuters. The same might have indicated that the dragon nation is not in recovery mode and requires more rate cuts than rate raises, which could have caused the gold price to plummet. The cause is China's position as one of the world's largest gold consumers.

 

In light of this, the S&P 500 Futures post modest losses while mirroring Wall Street's Friday close. Notably, the selling in Japan curbs bond movements in Asia, but yields are robust near the multi-day high due to fears of a recession and hawkish Fed views.

 

Moving forward, a light economic calendar and important market holidays may limit intraday XAU/USD price fluctuations. However, bears are expected to maintain control because to aggressive Fed expectations, which, if dashed, might defy the bearish chart pattern and spark the long-awaited rally.

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