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On June 23, according to Futures News, as of June 22, the closing price of benzene in the mainstream market in East China was 7185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 485 yuan/ton from 7670 yuan/ton on June 1. Progress in US-Iran negotiations and the drop in European and American crude oil futures to their early March lows dragged down market confidence. Coupled with the continued pressure of losses in downstream industries, there was low enthusiasm for purchasing raw material benzene, with priority given to fulfilling existing contracts. Spot trading was inactive, putting downward pressure on benzene prices to some extent. However, the lack of imported cargo ships arriving at major ports in East China for an extended period provided support at the market bottom, limiting the decline in benzene prices. Looking ahead, inventory reduction at major ports in East China is expected to continue in June, and market sentiment remains cautious, with few willing to short sell. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term, but the downside is limited.On June 23rd, Futures News reported that crude oil prices fluctuated significantly during the day. Following the strait blockade, oil prices initially rose, but subsequently retreated from their highs after the successful negotiations between the US and Iran and the reopening of the strait. The Middle East situation remains the core factor driving wide price fluctuations. Zhuochuang Information predicts that with the successful US-Iran negotiations and the resulting agreements, market anxieties have significantly eased, and the center of gravity for oil price fluctuations will gradually shift downwards. In the short term, oil prices are expected to continue their weak trend.Indias preliminary composite PMI for June was 57.4, below the expected 59 and the previous reading of 59.3.Indias June services PMI preliminary reading was 57.3, below the expected 58.8 and the previous reading of 59.8.The yield on Japans two-year government bonds rose 1.0 basis point to 1.415%.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD bears at $1,650 on Fed hawkishness and China news

Daniel Rogers

Sep 19, 2022 14:34

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During early Monday morning in Europe, the gold price (XAU/USD) maintains a position close to the intraday low at $1,670. In doing so, metal prices endure the weight of a stronger U.S. dollar amidst a sluggish session caused by Japanese and British vacations. The cause may be related to the Fed's hawkish bets and China-related news stories.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a two-day slump while posting intraday gains of 0.18 percent at 109.85 as of press time. Indicators of the U.S. dollar's value versus the six major currencies have recently been buoyed by the University of Michigan's September consumer sentiment report and the market's positive expectations on the Fed's next move. Consequently, the probability of a 75-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve increased to 80%, while the market's estimates of a one-percentage-point increase in the Fed rate rose to 20% at the latest.

 

US President Biden stated elsewhere, "I'm more positive than I've been in a long time." The national leader also claimed that inflation will be brought under control. On the same line are the covid updates from China, which have unlocked Dalian and Chengdu while observing zero coronavirus cases in Beijing and one, as opposed to zero the day before, outside of Shanghai's quarantine zone. However, US President Biden's willingness to support Taiwan in the event that China assaults Taiwan and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve appear to weigh on the steel price ahead of the major monetary policy pronouncements.

 

In addition, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) reduces the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 2.15 percent. "With no maturing reverse repos on Monday, the Chinese central bank injects 12 billion yuan," reports Reuters. The same might have indicated that the dragon nation is not in recovery mode and requires more rate cuts than rate raises, which could have caused the gold price to plummet. The cause is China's position as one of the world's largest gold consumers.

 

In light of this, the S&P 500 Futures post modest losses while mirroring Wall Street's Friday close. Notably, the selling in Japan curbs bond movements in Asia, but yields are robust near the multi-day high due to fears of a recession and hawkish Fed views.

 

Moving forward, a light economic calendar and important market holidays may limit intraday XAU/USD price fluctuations. However, bears are expected to maintain control because to aggressive Fed expectations, which, if dashed, might defy the bearish chart pattern and spark the long-awaited rally.

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