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On August 15th, regarding the issue of non-Shanghai residents purchasing homes for replacement purposes, a staff member at the Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Center hotline stated that no new policies have been introduced. According to the hotline staff, non-Shanghai resident families who sell their only property can exchange it for one more home within the city, provided the ownership remains the same before and after. No social security or individual income tax certificates are required. This policy has been in effect since May 28, 2024. For non-Shanghai resident families or single adults selling some of their properties (i.e., owning two or more properties), when purchasing a new home, the number and location of the new home must match the previously sold property—if a property is sold outside the outer ring road, it can only be purchased outside the outer ring road; if a property is sold within the outer ring road, it can only be purchased within the outer ring road. No social security or individual income tax certificates are required. This policy has been in effect since February 26, 2026. Regarding home purchases and exchanges by foreign individuals, hotline staff stated that foreign individuals who sell all their properties in Shanghai can exchange them for and purchase one additional home in the city without submitting a foreigners residence permit (work category), a Shanghai employment contract valid for at least one consecutive year prior to the date of purchase, or proof of social security and individual income tax payments valid for at least one consecutive year prior to the date of purchase. However, they still need to sign a commitment letter for self-occupancy of the property. This policy will take effect on July 29, 2026.On August 15th, a rare occurrence this week was Jensen Huang joining forces with six Wall Street asset management giants to endorse the idea of "developing AI computing power into an independent asset class." Analysts believe this is Huang putting his "meta-economics" into practice, signifying that the AI hype is extending from a technology race to a capital race. However, this latest plan has also sparked investor concerns about "revolving financing" and debt risks. Faced with these questions, Huang personally reassured the market again. He stated that Nvidia might "provide a residual value support mechanism of up to 25% for individual investment projects" and would carefully evaluate each project. Market sentiment subsequently eased slightly.August 15th - According to Lighthouse Pro, as of August 15th, the total box office (including pre-sales) for August 2026 has exceeded 3 billion yuan. Spider-Man: New Day, Welcome to Dragon Restaurant, Eight Immortals, Odyssey, and Kung Fu Soccer are currently ranked in the top five at the August box office.According to Irans Press TV, Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon have killed seven people and injured three.Ukrainian President Zelensky: The Ukrainian military attacked a Russian military airbase in Nizhny Novgorod and Russian oil facilities in Ust-Luga.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD bears at $1,650 on Fed hawkishness and China news

Daniel Rogers

Sep 19, 2022 14:34

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During early Monday morning in Europe, the gold price (XAU/USD) maintains a position close to the intraday low at $1,670. In doing so, metal prices endure the weight of a stronger U.S. dollar amidst a sluggish session caused by Japanese and British vacations. The cause may be related to the Fed's hawkish bets and China-related news stories.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a two-day slump while posting intraday gains of 0.18 percent at 109.85 as of press time. Indicators of the U.S. dollar's value versus the six major currencies have recently been buoyed by the University of Michigan's September consumer sentiment report and the market's positive expectations on the Fed's next move. Consequently, the probability of a 75-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve increased to 80%, while the market's estimates of a one-percentage-point increase in the Fed rate rose to 20% at the latest.

 

US President Biden stated elsewhere, "I'm more positive than I've been in a long time." The national leader also claimed that inflation will be brought under control. On the same line are the covid updates from China, which have unlocked Dalian and Chengdu while observing zero coronavirus cases in Beijing and one, as opposed to zero the day before, outside of Shanghai's quarantine zone. However, US President Biden's willingness to support Taiwan in the event that China assaults Taiwan and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve appear to weigh on the steel price ahead of the major monetary policy pronouncements.

 

In addition, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) reduces the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 2.15 percent. "With no maturing reverse repos on Monday, the Chinese central bank injects 12 billion yuan," reports Reuters. The same might have indicated that the dragon nation is not in recovery mode and requires more rate cuts than rate raises, which could have caused the gold price to plummet. The cause is China's position as one of the world's largest gold consumers.

 

In light of this, the S&P 500 Futures post modest losses while mirroring Wall Street's Friday close. Notably, the selling in Japan curbs bond movements in Asia, but yields are robust near the multi-day high due to fears of a recession and hawkish Fed views.

 

Moving forward, a light economic calendar and important market holidays may limit intraday XAU/USD price fluctuations. However, bears are expected to maintain control because to aggressive Fed expectations, which, if dashed, might defy the bearish chart pattern and spark the long-awaited rally.

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