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Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) Gas Division: An incident at the Habshan building on April 3 resulted in damage to some facilities.On April 5th, according to Axios, US President Trump stated in a phone interview that the US is engaged in "deep negotiations" with Iran and hopes to reach an agreement before Tuesdays deadline. "The chances of a deal are very high, but if they dont, Im going to destroy everything there," he said. When asked if he was worried about harming innocent civilians, Trump said he believed Iranians opposed to his government would support such strikes to weaken the regime. In the approximately eight-minute phone interview, Trump stated that his special envoys, Witkov and Kushner, were engaged in intensive negotiations with the Iranian side. Two sources involved in the negotiations said communication was being conducted both through intermediaries such as Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, and through text messages between Trumps advisors and Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi. "The negotiations are progressing well, but dealing with the Iranians is never a long way off," Trump said. He also stated that the two sides were close to reaching an agreement to hold direct talks a few days earlier. "But they said theyd meet again in five days. I asked, why five days? I felt they werent serious enough. So I attacked that bridge," Trump said.On April 5th, Democratic House Armed Services Committee member Roe Carner, in an interview with NBC, stated that Trump is "failing the U.S. military" on the Iran issue, and that his rhetoric is out of touch with reality. Carner pointed out that Trump had earlier tweeted demanding that Iran "open the damn Strait of Hormuz," or face escalating attacks. While Trump is "using profanity and threatening war crimes," U.S. military personnel are under fire, despite his repeated claims that Iranian military power has been destroyed. Carner said, "We must end this war now. There needs to be an immediate ceasefire. Iran, Israel, and the United States must stop bombing and reach a solution through negotiations." He also stated that he would refuse to support any additional funding that prolongs the conflict, including appropriations directly for Pentagon war operations.On April 5, Mehdi Tabatabai, Deputy Chief of Staff for Information and Communications at the Iranian Presidential Palace, issued a stern statement regarding the regional situation and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Tabatabai launched a fierce attack on US President Trump and his policies on social media, accusing him of resorting to verbal abuse out of "despair and anger," and claiming that his reckless actions had triggered a full-scale war in the region. Regarding the control of the Strait of Hormuz, Tabatabai stated that the strait would only be fully reopened after a new legal framework was established and past shipping tax revenues were used to compensate Iran for all losses suffered in past wars.Domestic News: 1. Box office revenue for the 2026 Qingming Festival holiday is expected to exceed 200 million yuan. 2. Wang Yi spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov by phone. 3. The Speaker of the Portuguese Parliament will visit China from April 7th to 11th. 4. Chinas national railway system transported 22.123 million passengers, setting a new record for single-day passenger volume during the Qingming Festival holiday. International News: 1. The White House denies rumors of Trumps serious illness and hospitalization. 2. OPEC+ increased production by 206,000 barrels per day in May. 3. British media: Britain seeks to attract Anthropic to expand its business in the UK. 4. Energy Situation: ① Iran has included Israeli power plants in its attack targets. ② The Ruwais petrochemical facility in Abu Dhabi was attacked and shut down. ③ Oil tankers carrying Iraqi crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. ④ Iran warned of further damage to US interests by striking petrochemical and energy facilities in several Gulf states. ⑤ Oman and Iran held a vice-ministerial meeting to discuss the issue of securing passage through the Strait of Hormuz. ⑥ Kuwait Oil Company confirmed that its production facilities were attacked by Iranian drones, and some facilities caught fire. 6. Iran Situation: ① Trump - US media: Trump said he would reach an agreement with Iran as early as tomorrow, otherwise he would blow everything up and take over the oil; Trump threatened to strike Iranian power plants and bridges on April 7; he will hold a joint press conference with the military. ② US media: The Iranian parliament speaker seems to have threatened to cut off shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. ③ Iran launched its 96th wave of strikes against the US and Israel. ④ Iranian media: The commander of the Iranian Army Air Defense Academy was killed in the US and Israeli attacks inside Iran. ⑤ Iranian military: The US militarys rescue mission for the pilots "failed" and several aircraft were shot down. ⑥ Israel claims to have killed the commercial head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards oil headquarters.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD bears at $1,650 on Fed hawkishness and China news

Daniel Rogers

Sep 19, 2022 14:34

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During early Monday morning in Europe, the gold price (XAU/USD) maintains a position close to the intraday low at $1,670. In doing so, metal prices endure the weight of a stronger U.S. dollar amidst a sluggish session caused by Japanese and British vacations. The cause may be related to the Fed's hawkish bets and China-related news stories.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a two-day slump while posting intraday gains of 0.18 percent at 109.85 as of press time. Indicators of the U.S. dollar's value versus the six major currencies have recently been buoyed by the University of Michigan's September consumer sentiment report and the market's positive expectations on the Fed's next move. Consequently, the probability of a 75-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve increased to 80%, while the market's estimates of a one-percentage-point increase in the Fed rate rose to 20% at the latest.

 

US President Biden stated elsewhere, "I'm more positive than I've been in a long time." The national leader also claimed that inflation will be brought under control. On the same line are the covid updates from China, which have unlocked Dalian and Chengdu while observing zero coronavirus cases in Beijing and one, as opposed to zero the day before, outside of Shanghai's quarantine zone. However, US President Biden's willingness to support Taiwan in the event that China assaults Taiwan and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve appear to weigh on the steel price ahead of the major monetary policy pronouncements.

 

In addition, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) reduces the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 2.15 percent. "With no maturing reverse repos on Monday, the Chinese central bank injects 12 billion yuan," reports Reuters. The same might have indicated that the dragon nation is not in recovery mode and requires more rate cuts than rate raises, which could have caused the gold price to plummet. The cause is China's position as one of the world's largest gold consumers.

 

In light of this, the S&P 500 Futures post modest losses while mirroring Wall Street's Friday close. Notably, the selling in Japan curbs bond movements in Asia, but yields are robust near the multi-day high due to fears of a recession and hawkish Fed views.

 

Moving forward, a light economic calendar and important market holidays may limit intraday XAU/USD price fluctuations. However, bears are expected to maintain control because to aggressive Fed expectations, which, if dashed, might defy the bearish chart pattern and spark the long-awaited rally.

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