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On July 6th, Tatsuo Yamazaki, former head of Japans foreign exchange policy and former finance minister at the Ministry of Finance, stated in an interview that the yen should appreciate by up to 20% from its current level (approximately 130 yen to the US dollar), refuting bets that the yen might weaken further. Yamazaki stated, "This is no longer a fundamental issue, but rather a question of how market expectations will change. But we are approaching a climax." He believes that the current estimate of the yen being undervalued by 10% is likely conservative. "I wouldnt be surprised if the yen rises to around 130. Frankly, thats my view." At the same time, Yamazaki suggested that the market should not mistake the recent apparent calm from Japanese authorities for complacency. He stated, "They have issued warnings, and anyone still holding short yen positions knows they face the risk of intervention and punishment—forced liquidation. The Ministry of Finance has gone beyond the warning stage; the authorities have indicated their willingness to take action."July 6th - In the third quarter of 2026, Shenzhen plans to launch 30 new residential projects, with an estimated supply of 882,821 square meters and 7,212 units. This includes: 770,222 square meters of residential space (6,929 units); 100,855 square meters of commercial apartments (184 units); 7,595 square meters of commercial space (63 units); and 4,149 square meters of office space (36 units).Germanys construction PMI for June was 44.8, compared to 42.4 in the previous month.July 6th - Tencent Hunyuan officially released Hy3 today. Based on the preview version, Hy3 further improves the quality and diversity of post-training data, expands the scale of RL computing power, and achieves significant progress in tasks such as inference, agents, and long context, reaching performance comparable to larger flagship models both domestically and internationally (whose parameter scale is often 2-5 times that of Hy3). Hy3 is open-sourced on GitHub, HuggingFace, ModelScope, and GitCode under the Apache 2.0 license. Thanks to a series of hardware and software optimizations, Tencent Hunyuan has further reduced the API price of Hy3 on Tencent Cloud and the usage cost on products such as WorkBuddy. Hy3 API price (per million tokens): Input ¥1, Output ¥4, Input (cache hit) ¥0.25.Ukrainian President Zelensky: Following Russias attack on Kyiv, we call on NATO to take strong action.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD bears at $1,650 on Fed hawkishness and China news

Daniel Rogers

Sep 19, 2022 14:34

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During early Monday morning in Europe, the gold price (XAU/USD) maintains a position close to the intraday low at $1,670. In doing so, metal prices endure the weight of a stronger U.S. dollar amidst a sluggish session caused by Japanese and British vacations. The cause may be related to the Fed's hawkish bets and China-related news stories.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a two-day slump while posting intraday gains of 0.18 percent at 109.85 as of press time. Indicators of the U.S. dollar's value versus the six major currencies have recently been buoyed by the University of Michigan's September consumer sentiment report and the market's positive expectations on the Fed's next move. Consequently, the probability of a 75-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve increased to 80%, while the market's estimates of a one-percentage-point increase in the Fed rate rose to 20% at the latest.

 

US President Biden stated elsewhere, "I'm more positive than I've been in a long time." The national leader also claimed that inflation will be brought under control. On the same line are the covid updates from China, which have unlocked Dalian and Chengdu while observing zero coronavirus cases in Beijing and one, as opposed to zero the day before, outside of Shanghai's quarantine zone. However, US President Biden's willingness to support Taiwan in the event that China assaults Taiwan and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve appear to weigh on the steel price ahead of the major monetary policy pronouncements.

 

In addition, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) reduces the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 2.15 percent. "With no maturing reverse repos on Monday, the Chinese central bank injects 12 billion yuan," reports Reuters. The same might have indicated that the dragon nation is not in recovery mode and requires more rate cuts than rate raises, which could have caused the gold price to plummet. The cause is China's position as one of the world's largest gold consumers.

 

In light of this, the S&P 500 Futures post modest losses while mirroring Wall Street's Friday close. Notably, the selling in Japan curbs bond movements in Asia, but yields are robust near the multi-day high due to fears of a recession and hawkish Fed views.

 

Moving forward, a light economic calendar and important market holidays may limit intraday XAU/USD price fluctuations. However, bears are expected to maintain control because to aggressive Fed expectations, which, if dashed, might defy the bearish chart pattern and spark the long-awaited rally.

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