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On July 10th, Bernstein raised its 2026 gold price forecast, projecting a second-half price target of $4,375 per ounce and a full-year target of $4,533. The firm believes that continued central bank gold purchases and the high probability that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the next 12 months will be the main factors supporting gold prices. Bernstein expects the Fed to raise rates only one or two times at most, limiting outflows from gold ETFs. Bernstein noted that rising real interest rates in the second quarter of 2026 caused gold prices to fall from $4,650 per ounce to around $4,000, but with stabilizing interest rate expectations, gold still has room to rise. The firm also warned that if inflation continues to exceed expectations, prompting the Fed to take more aggressive interest rate hikes, this will be the main risk to rising gold prices.According to NewsNation: US officials say technical negotiations with Iran are ongoing and the US remains committed to finding a solution. Iran must never possess nuclear weapons.The U.S. House of Representatives will vote next week on a bill to permanently implement daylight saving time.Democratic Republic of Congo: The number of confirmed Ebola cases has risen to 1,792, with 625 deaths.July 10 – According to Sputnik News Agency, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated at a press conference that Russia no longer believes the West is willing to negotiate on the Ukraine issue. Lavrov said, “We no longer believe the West is willing to resolve the issue through negotiations. Our previous goodwill and hope have been completely exhausted.” Lavrov added, “We have outlined our assessment of the current situation in Ukraine, including the actions of the West. While pretending to be prepared for negotiations, as the European side has already announced, the West has turned around and publicly issued an ultimatum to Russia.”

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD bears at $1,650 on Fed hawkishness and China news

Daniel Rogers

Sep 19, 2022 14:34

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During early Monday morning in Europe, the gold price (XAU/USD) maintains a position close to the intraday low at $1,670. In doing so, metal prices endure the weight of a stronger U.S. dollar amidst a sluggish session caused by Japanese and British vacations. The cause may be related to the Fed's hawkish bets and China-related news stories.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a two-day slump while posting intraday gains of 0.18 percent at 109.85 as of press time. Indicators of the U.S. dollar's value versus the six major currencies have recently been buoyed by the University of Michigan's September consumer sentiment report and the market's positive expectations on the Fed's next move. Consequently, the probability of a 75-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve increased to 80%, while the market's estimates of a one-percentage-point increase in the Fed rate rose to 20% at the latest.

 

US President Biden stated elsewhere, "I'm more positive than I've been in a long time." The national leader also claimed that inflation will be brought under control. On the same line are the covid updates from China, which have unlocked Dalian and Chengdu while observing zero coronavirus cases in Beijing and one, as opposed to zero the day before, outside of Shanghai's quarantine zone. However, US President Biden's willingness to support Taiwan in the event that China assaults Taiwan and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve appear to weigh on the steel price ahead of the major monetary policy pronouncements.

 

In addition, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) reduces the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 2.15 percent. "With no maturing reverse repos on Monday, the Chinese central bank injects 12 billion yuan," reports Reuters. The same might have indicated that the dragon nation is not in recovery mode and requires more rate cuts than rate raises, which could have caused the gold price to plummet. The cause is China's position as one of the world's largest gold consumers.

 

In light of this, the S&P 500 Futures post modest losses while mirroring Wall Street's Friday close. Notably, the selling in Japan curbs bond movements in Asia, but yields are robust near the multi-day high due to fears of a recession and hawkish Fed views.

 

Moving forward, a light economic calendar and important market holidays may limit intraday XAU/USD price fluctuations. However, bears are expected to maintain control because to aggressive Fed expectations, which, if dashed, might defy the bearish chart pattern and spark the long-awaited rally.

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