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On August 21, HSBC issued a report lowering its target price for Pop Mart (09992.HK) by 19% to HK$136.5 from HK$168.9, while maintaining a "Hold" rating. The main reason for the downward revision of its earnings per share forecast was the disappointing first-half results. HSBC stated that the banks previous downgrade to "Hold" was due to the limited earnings visibility after adjustments for Labubus intellectual property products. Second-quarter revenue in 2026 was lower than the banks expectations, with overseas markets experiencing a larger-than-expected decline compared to the previous quarter. Following the 2026 forecast adjustment, HSBC maintained its 2026 and 2028 revenue/earnings CAGR forecasts for Pop Mart at 16% and 20% respectively, but lowered its 2027 and 2028 earnings forecasts by 16% and 18% respectively. The banks current earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are 27% and 23% lower than the market consensus, respectively.On August 21, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Liao Min, Vice Minister of Finance, stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the Ministry of Finance will place greater emphasis on improving the effectiveness and precision of fiscal macro-control. Focusing on the policy objectives of stabilizing growth, employment, and expectations, the Ministry will increase counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. While maintaining the necessary deficit size and expenditure intensity, it will also strive to optimize the expenditure structure and concentrate financial resources to ensure the fulfillment of major national strategic tasks. We will further focus on investing in people, reasonably increasing the proportion of public service expenditures in fiscal expenditures, particularly expanding development space by meeting peoples livelihood needs.On August 21, the State Council Information Office held a press conference this morning on the theme of "Starting the 15th Five-Year Plan," where officials from the Ministry of Finance introduced the relevant situation regarding leveraging the role of proactive fiscal policy to promote high-quality economic and social development. Liao Min, Vice Minister of Finance, stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we will strive to build a stronger, more stable, balanced, and sustainable fiscal system to provide a solid fiscal guarantee for achieving decisive progress in basically realizing socialist modernization. In summary, this means striving to achieve six "further" goals: further strengthening fiscal strength; further optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure, with more fiscal spending shifting towards investment in people, supporting domestic consumption, and enhancing the endogenous driving force of the domestic economic cycle; further improving the effectiveness of fiscal macro-control; further deepening fiscal and tax system reform; further improving the level of scientific fiscal management; and further mitigating risks in key fiscal areas.On August 21, the Russian Pacific Fleet announced on social media that a mixed strike force of the Pacific Fleet conducted missile launch training against simulated enemy ships in waters near the Southern Kuril Islands (known as the Northern Territories in Japan), and all targets were successfully hit. The post stated that the missile cruiser Varyag launched Vulcan anti-ship missiles, the nuclear-powered submarine Omsk launched Granit cruise missiles, and the Bastion shore-based anti-ship missile system launched Onyx anti-ship missiles. The training targets were more than 300 kilometers from the launch sites. The Russian side did not mention the timing of the training exercise. Separately, according to a report by Kyodo News on August 21, regarding Russias missile launch training near the disputed islands between Japan and Russia, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi told the media in Oman on August 20, during his visit there, that "strengthening military capabilities in the Northern Territories violates Japans position and is unacceptable."August 21 – According to the 2026 APEC Customs and Business Dialogue, in the first seven months of this year, Chinas total import and export volume with other APEC economies reached 18.03 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%. Currently, the Asia-Pacific region accounts for more than 60% of the global economy and its total trade volume is close to half of the global total. The growth rate of Chinas import and export with other APEC economies in the first seven months of this year was higher than the overall level of Chinas merchandise trade during the same period, demonstrating the enormous potential of regional economic cooperation.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD bears at $1,650 on Fed hawkishness and China news

Daniel Rogers

Sep 19, 2022 14:34

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During early Monday morning in Europe, the gold price (XAU/USD) maintains a position close to the intraday low at $1,670. In doing so, metal prices endure the weight of a stronger U.S. dollar amidst a sluggish session caused by Japanese and British vacations. The cause may be related to the Fed's hawkish bets and China-related news stories.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a two-day slump while posting intraday gains of 0.18 percent at 109.85 as of press time. Indicators of the U.S. dollar's value versus the six major currencies have recently been buoyed by the University of Michigan's September consumer sentiment report and the market's positive expectations on the Fed's next move. Consequently, the probability of a 75-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve increased to 80%, while the market's estimates of a one-percentage-point increase in the Fed rate rose to 20% at the latest.

 

US President Biden stated elsewhere, "I'm more positive than I've been in a long time." The national leader also claimed that inflation will be brought under control. On the same line are the covid updates from China, which have unlocked Dalian and Chengdu while observing zero coronavirus cases in Beijing and one, as opposed to zero the day before, outside of Shanghai's quarantine zone. However, US President Biden's willingness to support Taiwan in the event that China assaults Taiwan and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve appear to weigh on the steel price ahead of the major monetary policy pronouncements.

 

In addition, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) reduces the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 2.15 percent. "With no maturing reverse repos on Monday, the Chinese central bank injects 12 billion yuan," reports Reuters. The same might have indicated that the dragon nation is not in recovery mode and requires more rate cuts than rate raises, which could have caused the gold price to plummet. The cause is China's position as one of the world's largest gold consumers.

 

In light of this, the S&P 500 Futures post modest losses while mirroring Wall Street's Friday close. Notably, the selling in Japan curbs bond movements in Asia, but yields are robust near the multi-day high due to fears of a recession and hawkish Fed views.

 

Moving forward, a light economic calendar and important market holidays may limit intraday XAU/USD price fluctuations. However, bears are expected to maintain control because to aggressive Fed expectations, which, if dashed, might defy the bearish chart pattern and spark the long-awaited rally.