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Futures News, June 19th - According to foreign media reports, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) edged lower on Friday as expectations that US interest rates will remain high for an extended period pressured the market, despite some support from progress on the Middle East peace agreement. LME three-month copper fell 0.54%. The likelihood of US interest rates remaining high for an extended period increased this week, with nearly half of Federal Reserve policymakers now believing a rate hike is necessary this year. Rate hikes would dampen the demand outlook for growth-dependent industrial metals. "The US interest rate outlook has a broad impact on global commodity markets, and rising rates increase costs for importers," wrote Daniel Hynes, senior commodities strategist at ANZ Bank, in a report. Initial progress on the peace agreement between Iran and the US, and the resumption of Middle East shipping, have lowered energy prices, but the sustainability of the ceasefire remains uncertain. On Friday, US Vice President Vance canceled his trip to Switzerland for peace talks with Iran. Aluminum prices stabilized after falling earlier this week, as the Middle East conflict disrupted aluminum supplies from the Gulf region, which accounts for about 9% of global aluminum smelting capacity.Sources say autonomous driving company Momenta plans to raise about $1 billion in its initial public offering in Hong Kong.Market news: Netflix (NFLX.O) is open to reaching more cooperation agreements with traditional television companies.June 19 - The Swiss Foreign Ministry announced that the planned US-Iran talks scheduled for Friday will not proceed as planned.On June 19, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with Canadian Minister of Industry Jolly, Prime Ministers Secretary to Parliament Blois, and representatives from the business community in Beijing on June 18. The two sides exchanged in-depth views on China-Canada economic and trade relations, the development of Canadian-invested enterprises in China, and key economic and trade concerns. Wang Wentao stated that both sides should fully leverage the China-Canada Joint Economic and Trade Commission mechanism as the main channel for economic and trade cooperation, consolidate the momentum of cooperation in traditional industries, vigorously expand cooperation in emerging and future industries, and strengthen the bonds of common interests. China has always valued the opinions of foreign investors and is willing to work with Canada to extend the list of cooperation and shorten the list of issues through candid dialogue and pragmatic cooperation, thereby promoting the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-Canada economic and trade relations.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD bears at $1,650 on Fed hawkishness and China news

Daniel Rogers

Sep 19, 2022 14:34

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During early Monday morning in Europe, the gold price (XAU/USD) maintains a position close to the intraday low at $1,670. In doing so, metal prices endure the weight of a stronger U.S. dollar amidst a sluggish session caused by Japanese and British vacations. The cause may be related to the Fed's hawkish bets and China-related news stories.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a two-day slump while posting intraday gains of 0.18 percent at 109.85 as of press time. Indicators of the U.S. dollar's value versus the six major currencies have recently been buoyed by the University of Michigan's September consumer sentiment report and the market's positive expectations on the Fed's next move. Consequently, the probability of a 75-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve increased to 80%, while the market's estimates of a one-percentage-point increase in the Fed rate rose to 20% at the latest.

 

US President Biden stated elsewhere, "I'm more positive than I've been in a long time." The national leader also claimed that inflation will be brought under control. On the same line are the covid updates from China, which have unlocked Dalian and Chengdu while observing zero coronavirus cases in Beijing and one, as opposed to zero the day before, outside of Shanghai's quarantine zone. However, US President Biden's willingness to support Taiwan in the event that China assaults Taiwan and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve appear to weigh on the steel price ahead of the major monetary policy pronouncements.

 

In addition, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) reduces the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 2.15 percent. "With no maturing reverse repos on Monday, the Chinese central bank injects 12 billion yuan," reports Reuters. The same might have indicated that the dragon nation is not in recovery mode and requires more rate cuts than rate raises, which could have caused the gold price to plummet. The cause is China's position as one of the world's largest gold consumers.

 

In light of this, the S&P 500 Futures post modest losses while mirroring Wall Street's Friday close. Notably, the selling in Japan curbs bond movements in Asia, but yields are robust near the multi-day high due to fears of a recession and hawkish Fed views.

 

Moving forward, a light economic calendar and important market holidays may limit intraday XAU/USD price fluctuations. However, bears are expected to maintain control because to aggressive Fed expectations, which, if dashed, might defy the bearish chart pattern and spark the long-awaited rally.

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