• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On September 18th, CICC Research Report stated that, looking ahead, due to weak employment data, we expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in October. However, rising inflation will raise the bar for rate cuts, limiting the scope for monetary easing. The current crux of the US economy is not insufficient demand, but rising costs. Excessive monetary easing will not only fail to address the employment problem but could also exacerbate inflation, plunging the economy into a quasi-stagflationary situation.Gold prices rose in early Asian trading on September 18th, as the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further, which will enhance the appeal of the non-interest-bearing precious metal. ANZ analysts said in a research note that investors cheered the start of a rate-cutting cycle. However, the analysts added that Fed Chairman Powells remarks were not as dovish as the market expected, which curbed the rise in gold prices.Japans core machinery orders month-on-month rate in July was -4.6%, in line with expectations of -1.70% and the previous value of 3.00%.Japans core machinery orders in July were 4.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations of 5.4% and the previous value of 7.60%.On September 18, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, in response to questions about the central banks statutory requirement to achieve "moderate long-term interest rates" at a press conference following the interest rate decision on Wednesday, explained why the three missions given to the Federal Reserve by Congress can be reduced to two major tasks in practice. Central bank officials have long positioned their mission as a dual task, with monetary policy focusing on keeping inflation low and stable and ensuring a continued strong job market, with little emphasis on the third task. Powell told reporters that the third task is real, but in the eyes of central bankers, it is a derivative of the two more well-known goals stipulated by law. He said: "We believe that moderate long-term interest rates are the result of achieving low and stable inflation and maximum employment." For some time, Federal Reserve officials did not believe that the third task required "independent action."

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD corrects to around $1,910 despite intensifying concerns of a global banking crisis

Alina Haynes

Mar 16, 2023 14:00

 截屏2022-09-15 下午3.06.36.png

 

After reaching a new six-week high at $1,937.39, the gold price (XAU/USD) displayed a corrective move during the Asian session. As gold's allure is extremely strong amid growing concerns about the global banking crisis, a correction in the precious metal appears to be short-lived. Credit Suisse's debacle following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has triggered the risk of global financial instability, and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming interest rate decision has bolstered the case for the Gold price.

 

S&P500 futures have shown a recovery move following Wednesday's sell-off as investors assess the banking sector's uncertainty. However, the motif of risk aversion has not yet completely subsided.

 

During the Asian session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is fluctuating in a narrow range of around 104.60. It appears that the impact of banking sector turmoil is maturing for the USD Index, and investors are beginning to discount expectations for next week's monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch instrument, the probability that Fed chair Jerome Powell will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) has risen above 70%. While 30% of the probabilities support maintaining the current interest rate policy.

 

Increasing odds of a status quo monetary policy are supported by a declining Consumer Price Index (CPI), a rising Unemployment Rate, sluggish Retail Sales, and a declining Producer Price Index (PPI).