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On December 10th, Shannon Saccoci, Chief Investment Officer of Neuberger Berman Wealth Management, stated in a recent memo that regardless of whether the Federal Reserve cuts rates this week, interest rates will eventually decline, driving a renewed acceleration in the US economy and opening up upside potential for risk assets. She pointed out that while market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed on December 10th have fluctuated wildly in recent weeks, the truly crucial factor is the Feds overall dovish policy stance—which is constructive for the US economy and risk markets. Saccoci emphasized that while risks regarding the timing and magnitude of rate cuts remain, this does not change the ultimate goal: a lower and more accommodative federal funds rate in the second half of next year.December 10th - According to NHK, the Japanese government and ruling party are adjusting the tax system for the ultra-wealthy, particularly those with high asset income from stocks and land, as part of next years tax reform. The plan is to lower the base annual income threshold from the current approximately 3 billion yen or more to approximately 600 million yen or more, thus expanding the tax base. A problem with Japans current tax system is that wages and other income are subject to progressive income rates, while asset income such as gains from stock and real estate transfers is subject to a flat rate. This results in a relatively low overall income tax burden for the ultra-wealthy, whose income is heavily reliant on asset income. An additional tax has already been implemented for those with high asset income among the ultra-wealthy, whose annual income is approximately 3 billion yen or more starting this year. The new standard is expected to apply to income from the following year. At that time, the number of people subject to taxation is expected to expand from the current approximately 200-300 to approximately 2,000, and tax revenue is expected to increase by approximately 300 billion yen.Cmoles trading volume exceeded 10 billion yuan, and its stock price has risen by more than 17%.According to NHK, the Japanese government and ruling party are considering expanding the tax rate range for the super-rich in order to increase tax revenue.On December 10th, according to futures market news: 1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 823,503 lots, an increase of 125,633 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,867,919 lots, a decrease of 22,893 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 109,892 lots, a decrease of 1,154 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 220,225 lots, a decrease of 1,021 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 801,271 lots, a decrease of 108,931 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,552,738 lots, a decrease of 16,730 lots from the previous trading day.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD corrects to around $1,910 despite intensifying concerns of a global banking crisis

Alina Haynes

Mar 16, 2023 14:00

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After reaching a new six-week high at $1,937.39, the gold price (XAU/USD) displayed a corrective move during the Asian session. As gold's allure is extremely strong amid growing concerns about the global banking crisis, a correction in the precious metal appears to be short-lived. Credit Suisse's debacle following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has triggered the risk of global financial instability, and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming interest rate decision has bolstered the case for the Gold price.

 

S&P500 futures have shown a recovery move following Wednesday's sell-off as investors assess the banking sector's uncertainty. However, the motif of risk aversion has not yet completely subsided.

 

During the Asian session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is fluctuating in a narrow range of around 104.60. It appears that the impact of banking sector turmoil is maturing for the USD Index, and investors are beginning to discount expectations for next week's monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch instrument, the probability that Fed chair Jerome Powell will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) has risen above 70%. While 30% of the probabilities support maintaining the current interest rate policy.

 

Increasing odds of a status quo monetary policy are supported by a declining Consumer Price Index (CPI), a rising Unemployment Rate, sluggish Retail Sales, and a declining Producer Price Index (PPI).