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The Hang Seng Tech Index fell more than 4%, while the Hang Seng Index is currently down 2.77%. Gold stocks, optical communications, non-ferrous metals, chips, building materials and cement are among the biggest losers.1. Market Dynamics: Platinum and palladium futures contracts both hit their daily limit down, falling by 16% to 552.15 yuan/gram and 413.7 yuan/gram respectively; Shanghai gold futures fell by over 11%, and Shanghai silver futures hit their daily limit down; precious metals experienced a sell-off across the board. 2. Core Drivers: US President Trump nominated the hawkish Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman, coupled with the unexpected rise in US December PPI inflation (annual rate of 3%, higher than expected), shaking market expectations for aggressive easing, easing concerns about the Feds independence, and shifting macroeconomic expectations. 3. Risk Control Pressure: CME significantly raised margin requirements for silver, platinum, and palladium futures for the second time this year, with gold margin also increasing (from 6% to 8% for non-high-risk accounts), significantly raising holding costs and intensifying liquidity tightening pressure. 4. Fund Flows: Speculative funds mainly flowed out; as of January 30, gold, silver, and palladium recorded reductions for 6, 2, and 3 consecutive days respectively, and the North American gold mining index fell sharply. 5. Nanhua Futures: Short-term "tightening trading" expectations do not change the medium-to-long-term "easing trend," and the foundation for a platinum and palladium bull market remains; however, the Warsh nomination brings concerns about a potential disruption of the underlying logic, and caution is advised against opening gaps due to high volatility. Position control is also crucial. 6. Yide Futures: The sharp decline disrupted the upward trend, but undoubtedly opened up opportunities for allocation trading. 7. Guoxin Futures: The trend of platinum group metals is anchored to the macro sentiment of the gold and silver sector. The Warsh nomination shakes the easing narrative, and CMEs increased protection measures exacerbate liquidity tightening; platinum and palladium may exhibit a weak and volatile situation, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended. 8. Other news: Parts of the US government face the risk of a shutdown, and House members need to return in two days to review the spending bill; Federal Reserve official Milan stated that he will continue to serve as a governor until Congress confirms a successor, emphasizing that current interest rates are still too restrictive. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data and is for reference only, not investment advice.)JPMorgan Chase raised its price target for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN.O) from $850 to $950.Samsung SDI: We expect strong annual sales growth of battery energy storage systems by 2030, driven by demand from data centers.The SC crude oil futures contract hit its daily limit down, falling 7.02% to 449 yuan per barrel.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD corrects to around $1,910 despite intensifying concerns of a global banking crisis

Alina Haynes

Mar 16, 2023 14:00

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After reaching a new six-week high at $1,937.39, the gold price (XAU/USD) displayed a corrective move during the Asian session. As gold's allure is extremely strong amid growing concerns about the global banking crisis, a correction in the precious metal appears to be short-lived. Credit Suisse's debacle following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has triggered the risk of global financial instability, and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming interest rate decision has bolstered the case for the Gold price.

 

S&P500 futures have shown a recovery move following Wednesday's sell-off as investors assess the banking sector's uncertainty. However, the motif of risk aversion has not yet completely subsided.

 

During the Asian session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is fluctuating in a narrow range of around 104.60. It appears that the impact of banking sector turmoil is maturing for the USD Index, and investors are beginning to discount expectations for next week's monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch instrument, the probability that Fed chair Jerome Powell will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) has risen above 70%. While 30% of the probabilities support maintaining the current interest rate policy.

 

Increasing odds of a status quo monetary policy are supported by a declining Consumer Price Index (CPI), a rising Unemployment Rate, sluggish Retail Sales, and a declining Producer Price Index (PPI).