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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD Bulls encounter resistance, while bears eye trendline support

Alina Haynes

Mar 13, 2023 11:24

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Gold price was approximately 0.5% higher at the start of the week following a 2% increase in the first hour of Tokyo trade on Friday, and as US authorities announced plans to limit the repercussions from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Gold is currently trading at $1,878 and ranges from $1,867.03 to $1,894.68 at the time of writing.

 

In a joint statement, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve announced a number of measures to stabilize the banking system and announced that depositors at SVB would have access to their funds on Monday. The Biden administration on Sunday guaranteed that customers of the failed Silicon Valley Bank will have full access to their funds beginning Monday. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg stated in a joint statement on Sunday that the FDIC will compensate SVB and Signature's customers in full.

 

Investors hypothesized that the Federal Reserve would be reluctant to upset the boat by increasing interest rates by a massive 50 basis points this month, resulting in a weaker US Dollar. Fed fund futures surged in early trading, implying only a 17% chance of a half-point hike, down from 70% before the SVB announcement last week. The apex for rates was 5.14%, down from 5.69% last Wednesday, and markets were even pricing in rate cuts by the end of the year. In a move that has benefited the price of gold, yields on two-year Treasuries fell to 4.445%, well below last week's peak of 5.08%.

 

In the meantime, speculators will focus on the US Consumer Price Index data that will be released on Tuesday. Even though the financial system is under stress, there is the possibility of a more aggressive Federal Reserve if the data comes in strong. ´´Core prices likely gained momentum in February with the index increasing a robust 0.5% MoM, as we look for the recent substantial relief from goods deflation to start normalizing,´´ analysts at TD Securities explained. "Shelter inflation is likely to remain the most significant wild card, while a decline in petroleum and food prices will likely reduce non-core CPI inflation. Our m/m forecasts imply total/core price growth of 6.1%/5.5% YoY.

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