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RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusueras: Warsh delivered the right hawkish signals at the press conference and attempted to reinforce the Fed’s credibility in restoring price stability, while also enhancing his own credibility.U.S. stocks continued to decline after the Walsh press conference, with the S&P 500 falling 1%, its biggest drop since July 29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.65%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.6%.On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh declined to answer questions at a press conference regarding his interactions with US President Trump. Trump has been calling for lower interest rates in recent months. Warsh stated, "I have no comment on my discussions with the president." White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Christopher Phelan said on Tuesday that raising interest rates would be a "mistake."On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated that he would not disclose details of future interest rate decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He said, "I am not responsible for providing forward guidance. Our decision today (to raise interest rates) is a carefully considered, serious, and responsible one. We have been preparing for and thinking about this decision for the past 110 or 120 days." Warsh also stated that this decision was not market-driven. He said, "Our decision today is based on our assessment of the current situation, our judgment of the employment trend, and our assessment of the strength of the economy. Sometimes, the market tries to anticipate our decisions. I watch market prices to see what information the market is sending. But todays decision is our own."On September 17th, Warsh stated that while the Federal Reserve cannot prevent price shocks in commodities such as oil on its own, the central bank can use policy tools to prevent further spread of inflationary pressures. Warsh said, "We cannot influence the price of any single commodity, such as oil or groceries." However, he pointed out, "We can and will ensure that any changes in relative prices do not spread further, and do not have second- or third-order effects on the economy. Thats our responsibility, and thats what were doing." Warsh made these remarks as U.S. diesel prices hit a record high due to the Iran war.

Gold Price Prediction: The XAU/USD pair will go below $1700 after a positive NFP report, followed by the CPI

Daniel Rogers

Oct 10, 2022 11:23

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The gold price declined after the U.S. Labor Department released employment data that exceeded expectations, thereby validating the Fed's need for additional tightening and supporting the dollar. Consequently, XAU/USD is currently trading at approximately $1690, below its initial price.

 

Prior to the announcement of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, the price of gold hovered around $1710. Gold's initial reaction to the headline, however, was a decline into the $1700 region, but this initial movement quickly vanished. In a volatile reaction, it extended its losses below $1700 at the time of typing.

 

US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data revealed that the US economy added 263K new jobs, above predictions of 250K, while the unemployment rate decreased to 3.5% from 3.7%. Even while the reading is lower than August's, it was above expectations, which would strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate hike.

 

In the meanwhile, money market futures have put in a 92% likelihood of a Fed rate hike of 75 basis points, up from 85.5% prior to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

 

US Treasury bond yields rose, with the 10-year US Treasury bond yield increasing three basis points to 3.865%, while the US Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar's value vs six other currencies, rose 0.28% to 112.565.

 

Now that the US Nonfarm Payrolls report is in the rearview mirror, the next significant events on the US calendar are the September CPI statistics and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment study, both of which will take place in the coming week.