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July 15th - According to Zhengzhou Customs, Henan Provinces total import and export volume exceeded 500 billion yuan for the first time in history during the first half of this year. In the first half of the year, Henans total import and export volume reached 520.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%. Exports totaled 319.48 billion yuan, up 14.6%; imports totaled 200.88 billion yuan, up 49.8%. This also marks the first time in history that Henans import volume has exceeded 200 billion yuan for the same period.July 15th, Futures News: Recent escalation of geopolitical tensions has restricted navigation across the Taiwan Strait, increasing market concerns about supply prospects and driving up international crude oil prices. The corresponding crude oil change rate is fluctuating upwards, and the current window for retail price adjustments for refined oil products has opened, providing a positive outlook. Currently, domestic wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel are rebounding, with some regions experiencing significant price increases. Some suppliers and traders are holding back sales or controlling supply, further fueling market upward pressure. In the short term, the increase in wholesale prices may exceed the adjustment in retail prices, potentially narrowing the wholesale-retail price gap. Furthermore, limited actual demand from end-users suggests a rise in risk appetite for purchasing at higher prices.Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi: Food inflation has cooled slightly, but remains high.July 15th - The market widely expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, and the focus has now shifted to signals of further tightening following this rate hike. KB Financial Group analyst Lim Jae-kyun stated that the Bank of Korea may raise rates twice this year, but the probability of another rate hike in October is higher than consecutive hikes in July and August. Hanwha Investment & Securities analyst Kim Sung-soo indicated that this Monetary Policy Committee meeting is likely to have an overall hawkish tone, with key points including whether economic growth forecasts are revised upwards and the wording regarding the pace of further rate hikes. In contrast, NH Investment & Securities analyst Kang Seung-won predicts that the Bank of Korea may not provide a specific timetable for further rate hikes to avoid the side effects of forward guidance.Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi: I see this as an opportunity to establish a system where the consumption tax rate can be flexibly adjusted.

Prediction for Silver Price: XAG/USD falls below $20.00 on risk aversion

Alina Haynes

Oct 11, 2022 14:22

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The silver price has fallen below the 100-day exponential moving average for four consecutive days due to a risk-off impulse triggered by the US central bank's forecasts for additional tightening, tensions emanating from the US-China chip embargo, and the aggravation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Therefore, traders seeking security kept the dollar in the lead. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD exchange rate is $19.59 per troy ounce, a decrease of 2.50%.

 

US markets ended the day in the red, extending their four-day losing streak. Monday's paucity of economic data releases in the United States forces market participants to rely on Federal Reserve speeches delivered by Vice-Chair Lael Brainard and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans.

 

Brainard stated that despite the fact that the US economy slowed "more than anticipated," many sectors continue to lag behind the effects of monetary policy. She stated that monetary policy must be tight for some time in order to ensure that inflation would return to the Fed's target level.

 

Previously, Charles Evans stated that the U.S. central bank may be able to lower inflation while avoiding a recession. He predicts that the Federal funds rate (FFR) will peak around 4.5% in early 2023 and remain elevated for an extended period of time.

 

The US Dollar Index increased by 0.35 percent to 113.145 as the situation between Russia and Ukraine escalated during the course of the day. In addition, the US embargo on semiconductors to China is anticipated to provoke reaction from one of the strongest economies in Asia.

 

Noting that the US bond market is closed is important, but there was no justification for the precious metals' poor start to the week. The yield on 10-year US bonds is currently 3.961%, whereas 10-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) will open on Tuesday yielding 1.62 %.

 

Despite this, most traders anticipate the release of US inflation data on Thursday. On a monthly basis, expectations are 0.2% over the previous figure, while on an annual basis, they are 8.1% due to dropping energy prices. Regarding core inflation, which excludes food and energy, the MoM is anticipated to decline by 0.4%, less than August's, while the YoY is anticipated to increase by 6.5%, greater than August's 6.3% increase.

 

The XAG/USD fell below the 100-day exponential moving average at $19.95, extending its losses close to the 20-day EMA at $19.53. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the 50-midline, which, if breached downwards, would indicate that sellers are gaining strength. Then, the XAG/initial USD's support would be the previously mentioned 20-day EMA, followed by the 50-day EMA at $19.40, which, once cleared, could pave the way for a retest of the daily low of $17.97 from September 28.


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