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Real-time News
Market Reactions to the Potential Nomination of Warsh: 1. Mizuho Securities: If Warsh is elected, the market will feel continued pressure to cut interest rates. The market has misjudged the pace of rate cuts; the Fed is expected to cut rates more slowly than anticipated or hoped for. 2. Wilson Management: Warshs tendency to cut rates conditional on balance sheet reduction could trigger market panic about liquidity contraction, leading to a sell-off in hedging assets such as gold, cryptocurrencies, and bonds. 3. National Australia Bank: Warshs election would strengthen expectations that the Feds independence will be protected, indicating that the Fed will not become a vassal of Trump or any other presidents will and be arbitrarily controlled. 4. TD Securities: If Warsh is successfully elected as the next Fed Chair, the US Treasury yield curve is expected to steepen. However, any market reaction will be short-lived, as the new chair needs to convince the other members of the committee. 5. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: The market is familiar with Warsh, which will help stabilize sentiment to some extent. He is more like a "steady and reliable trader" than the type to make sweeping changes and start from scratch. 6. Carson Group: Warsh has historically been a hawk. If he enters the Fed advocating for significant rate cuts, he may not have much credibility within the Fed. We might even face a severely divided Fed that doesnt cut rates at all. 7. L&G Asset Management: Whoever Trump nominates will be more dovish than Powell. Although the market has already priced in future Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar, long-term interest rates may rise due to risk premiums. Be wary of a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" reversal. Latest Institutional Rate Cut Expectations: 1. Mitsubishi UFJ: Lowered its forecast for the number of Fed rate cuts this year and expects the first rate cut in April. 2. CICC: The Fed is still expected to cut rates twice in 2026, but the first rate cut may be delayed until the second quarter. 3. Goldman Sachs: Initially expects the Fed to make its next 25 basis point rate cut in June, followed by the final rate cut of this cycle in September. 4. Danske Bank: Believes the risk of a renewed shift to easing policy is increasing following the Feds January rate decision, and anticipates rate cuts at the March and June meetings. 5. Commerzbank: Given the currently more favorable economic and labor market conditions, the Fed will not rush to cut rates. It is expected that the Fed may not cut rates again before Powells term ends. 6. Huatai Securities: The Feds January meeting corroborated our more optimistic assessment of the US economy and job market, maintaining our expectation of a pause in rate cuts from January to May, with the new chairman expected to cut rates 1-2 more times after taking office in the middle of the year. 7. CITIC Securities: Powell expects tariff inflation to peak later than the first quarter, and is uncertain about new tariff policies. It is expected that the Fed will not cut rates again in the remaining two meetings during Powells chairmanship. 8. Nordea Bank: While Powell maintains expectations of rate cuts, he emphasizes the need to wait for the effects of tariff inflation to subside, unless the job market deteriorates significantly. This poses an upside risk to our forecast of three rate cuts this year (the first in March).On January 30th, officials from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration answered reporters questions regarding improving the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation. Among the points raised was promoting the fair participation of pumped storage and new energy storage systems in the electricity market. Addressing the situation where pumped storage and new energy storage systems in some regions have not yet participated fairly in the electricity market, hindering the formation of accurate price signals and limiting their regulatory role, the "Notice" proposes accelerating the fair entry of pumped storage and new energy storage systems into the market. In particular, pumped storage power stations constructed after the issuance of Document No. 633 should participate in the electricity market independently to promote their full regulatory role.On January 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on improving the capacity pricing mechanism for the power generation side. The notice clarifies that after the continuous operation of local electricity spot markets, a reliable capacity compensation mechanism for the power generation side will be established in an orderly manner. Compensation will be provided to all types of generating units according to the peak capacity they can provide, based on a unified principle. The scope of compensation will be gradually expanded in conjunction with the construction of the electricity market and the market-oriented reform of electricity prices, so as to fairly reflect the peak contribution of different generating units to the power system.On January 30th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on improving the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation. The notice proposes to improve the capacity pricing mechanisms for coal-fired power, gas-fired power, pumped storage, and new energy storage in a categorized manner to meet the needs of building a new power system and electricity market system. First, local governments should raise the capacity pricing standard for coal-fired power based on their actual conditions, and may establish a capacity pricing mechanism for gas-fired power with reference to coal-fired power. Second, for pumped storage power stations newly started in recent years, a unified local capacity pricing mechanism should be formulated according to the principle of compensating for average costs. Third, an independent capacity pricing mechanism for new energy storage on the grid side should be established, with the capacity pricing standard determined by factors such as discharge duration and peak-hour contribution.Ukrainian President Zelensky: The date or location of the next meeting between Ukrainian, Russian, and American negotiators may change.
