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May 20th - According to Israeli sources on the evening of May 19th local time, despite US President Trumps announcement the previous day to cancel attacks on Iran, Israeli officials assessed that evening that Trump still favored resuming military action against Iran. Furthermore, Israeli sources also stated that joint preparations between Israel and the US for resuming military action against Iran have been completed and are currently awaiting Trumps decision.Citigroup: If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in early 2027, the oil shock of the 1970s could be repeated.Citigroup: The outlook for oil in 2027 is extremely difficult to predict, but the median forecast is $80-90 per barrel.Citigroup still believes that the oil market is under-pricing "duration risk" and "tail risk".On May 20th, US Vice President Vance stated at a White House press briefing on May 19th that direct negotiations between the US and Iran had made "significant progress" in establishing communication channels and advancing the diplomatic process, but he declined to disclose the specific details of the current behind-the-scenes consultations. Vance stated that the US is still engaged in extensive "back and forth communication" with Iran, and that the negotiations are "making good progress." Vance revealed that he, along with Trumps son-in-law Jared Kushner and Special Envoy Witkov, had previously held lengthy contacts with Iranian officials, primarily with two objectives: first, to rebuild the long-interrupted direct communication channels between the two countries; and second, to lay the foundation for subsequent formal negotiations. He said that the negotiating team was not "very confident" at the time that an agreement could be reached quickly, but believed they could "take an important step towards an agreement," and that this goal has now been achieved.

WTI advances toward $75.00 as China-related demand optimism offsets recession fears

Daniel Rogers

Jan 09, 2023 11:55

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In the early hours of Monday, WTI steadily climbs near the intraday high of $74.70 as bullish emotion competes with economic slowdown worries. Despite this, the weaker US Dollar and a light schedule allow buyers of black gold to maintain control following Friday's mixed performance.

 

In spite of this, the risk profile remains elevated in light of China's reopening of its borders after a three-year closure. On the same line, Guo Shuqing, party secretary of the People's Bank of China, made his remarks (PBOC).

 

Reuters, transmitting China unlock news, claimed that "about 2 billion journeys are anticipated this season, roughly doubling the volume of previous year, and recovering to 70% of 2019 levels," citing a statement from the Chinese government.

 

On the other side, PBOC's Shuqing stated, "The world's second-largest economy is likely to recover rapidly due to the country's optimal Covid-19 response and the continued implementation of its economic policies."

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell the most in three weeks the day before, down 0.20% intraday to 103.70 as of press time, as the US employment report failed to excite greenback purchasers and the US activity numbers stoked fears of an economic slowdown. It's worth mentioning that the previous day's disappointing US wage growth, ISM Services PMI, and Factory Orders weighed on Treasury bond yields and the DXY.

 

On a different page, reports regarding a delay in the restoration of the colonial pipeline and the Russia-Ukraine conflict appear to also benefit energy buyers. Traders fear additional rate hikes ahead of the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December from China and the United States on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, which tests the positive momentum.

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