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1. Capital Economics: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold rates steady, with the next move likely to be a rate cut, but no earlier than the second half of 2027. 2. Commerzbank: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, and in the medium term, the RBAs next move after holding rates steady will be a rate cut. 3. MFS Investment Management: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, while reiterating its readiness to further tighten policy to address persistently high inflation. 4. Wells Fargo: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, with a 25 basis point rate hike anticipated in September, followed by a gradual easing cycle in the second half of 2027. 5. IFM Investors: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, with second-quarter CPI data giving the bank reason to remain cautious, but it has not locked in a rate cut as the next move. 6. Westpac: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, as the energy cost pass-through to consumers caused by the Middle East conflict has not yet been sustained, but the bank will maintain a hawkish stance. 7. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold rates steady and continue using hawkish rhetoric. However, if the bank lowers its inflation forecast, the market will interpret this as opening the door to further easing. 8. ING: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady. Overall, price pressures have eased faster than the RBA anticipated, further strengthening the case for keeping rates unchanged until the end of the year. 9. TD Securities: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady. Despite weaker-than-expected CPI data, the bank will not significantly lower its inflation forecast, citing persistent upside risks to the inflation outlook due to high oil prices.Futures News, August 11th: Over the weekend, negotiations between Iran and the US failed as Iran raised its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which the US found unacceptable. With the Strait remaining closed, oil prices continued to rise, with US crude oil fluctuating above $80. Zhuochuang Information predicts that continued attention should be paid to the progress of US-Iran negotiations. Trump has also raised his demands, leading to a stalemate. Given the closure of the Strait and the reduced efficiency of tanker passage, oil prices are expected to remain relatively strong.The main contract for the container shipping index (European route) fell by more than 5.00% during the day, and is currently trading at 1554.5 points.New York gold futures extended gains to 1.00% on the day, currently trading at $4,493.10 per ounce.New York silver futures rose more than 1.00% on the day, currently trading at $66.54 per ounce.

WTI advances toward $75.00 as China-related demand optimism offsets recession fears

Daniel Rogers

Jan 09, 2023 11:55

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In the early hours of Monday, WTI steadily climbs near the intraday high of $74.70 as bullish emotion competes with economic slowdown worries. Despite this, the weaker US Dollar and a light schedule allow buyers of black gold to maintain control following Friday's mixed performance.

 

In spite of this, the risk profile remains elevated in light of China's reopening of its borders after a three-year closure. On the same line, Guo Shuqing, party secretary of the People's Bank of China, made his remarks (PBOC).

 

Reuters, transmitting China unlock news, claimed that "about 2 billion journeys are anticipated this season, roughly doubling the volume of previous year, and recovering to 70% of 2019 levels," citing a statement from the Chinese government.

 

On the other side, PBOC's Shuqing stated, "The world's second-largest economy is likely to recover rapidly due to the country's optimal Covid-19 response and the continued implementation of its economic policies."

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell the most in three weeks the day before, down 0.20% intraday to 103.70 as of press time, as the US employment report failed to excite greenback purchasers and the US activity numbers stoked fears of an economic slowdown. It's worth mentioning that the previous day's disappointing US wage growth, ISM Services PMI, and Factory Orders weighed on Treasury bond yields and the DXY.

 

On a different page, reports regarding a delay in the restoration of the colonial pipeline and the Russia-Ukraine conflict appear to also benefit energy buyers. Traders fear additional rate hikes ahead of the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December from China and the United States on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, which tests the positive momentum.

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