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On January 14th, Brian Martin, Head of G3 Economy Research at ANZ Bank, stated that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in January, but the view that the rate-cutting cycle is on a long-term pause lacks a reasonable basis. He believes the Fed should resume rate cuts soon, with the committee likely to lower the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points in March and another 25 basis points in June, bringing the target rate down to 3.00%-3.25% by mid-year. Martin pointed out that as the impact of previous tariffs on price increases fades, wage growth slows, and housing inflation cools, US inflation will gradually moderate by 2026.A Bank of Korea official stated that the USD/KRW exchange rate above 1400 is inconsistent with economic fundamentals.On January 14th, it was learned from Alibaba Cloud that Liu Weiguang, Senior Vice President of Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Group and President of the Public Cloud Business Unit, stated, "Alibaba Clouds goal is to capture 80% of the incremental growth in Chinas AI cloud market by 2026." Liu Weiguang added, "However, even 10% of the incremental growth next year will be greater than the total growth of the previous year, so past achievements are not important; the changes have only just begun."January 14th - According to a Financial Times report on Wednesday, Coca-Cola has abandoned its plans to sell its Costa coffee chain after private equity firms offered less than expected. The report, citing two sources familiar with the matter, stated that the US beverage giant terminated negotiations with remaining bidders in December, putting the months-long bidding process on hold.January 14th - Gold and silver continued to hit record highs during Asian trading hours due to escalating geopolitical risks. President Trumps statement on Tuesday that aid was imminent to Iranian protesters foreshadowed potential US action against the regime. Two foreign exchange strategists from OCBC Group Research noted in a report that the dramatic developments in Iran highlight the continued geopolitical uncertainty, while the fundamental support for precious metals remains solid.

GBP/USD to Test 1.2260; Downside Remains Favored Due to Rising US CPI; UK GDP Watched

Daniel Rogers

May 12, 2022 10:13

The GBP/USD pair has broken to the negative from its week-long consolidation between 1.2260 and 1.2400. The asset may test the lower range of consolidation to confirm the bears' strength, but the downside remains intact as rising US inflation data has increased the likelihood of a massive rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in June.

 

Wednesday's 8.3 percent reading for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) surpassed the 8.1 percent forecast by theștiindștiind. Market analysts anticipated that the Fed's June monetary policy would include a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate hike in response to the US CPI reading of 8.1%. Now, a higher-than-anticipated US inflation rate has increased the likelihood of a 75 basis point rate hike. This has shook the foreign exchange market, and investors are selling risky assets like there is no tomorrow.

 

In the meantime, the US dollar index (DXY) is trying to maintain its position above 104.00, although the upside remains intact. Regarding the British pound, investors anticipate the announcement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The quarterly GDP estimate for the United Kingdom is predicted to be 1 percent, compared to the previous estimate of 1.3%, while the annual estimate is projected to be 9 percent, compared to the previous estimate of 6.6%. A higher-than-anticipated UK GDP may protect the pound from additional losses, whilst a weaker-than-anticipated figure would accelerate the asset's decline.

GBP/USD

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